Who Is Next Bove - A Who Is Next list by Richard X. Bove of financial institutions at risk of default like Indy Mac includes some surprisingly big names like Bank of America and JP Morgan.
The Who Is Next Bove list defines “at risk” institutions as having more than 5.0% of its reserves plus common equity outweighed by non-performing assets plus 90-day in arrears loans.
The formula is non-performing assets + 90-days late loans divided by bank reserves + common equity. Any financial institution with a ratio over 40% is in the danger zone and over 20% is at risk of needing additional capital.
Who Is Next Bove List:
- IndyMac Bancorp, Inc. - IMB - 146.2%
- Downey Financial Corp. - DSL - 95.4%
- Doral Financial Corporation - DRL - 85.7%
- BFC Financial Corporation - BFF - 77.8%
- BankUnited Financial Corporation - BKUNA - 75.6%
- Corus Bankshares, Inc. - CORS - 69.9%
- First BanCorp. - FBP - 53.4%
- FirstFed Financial Corp. - FED - 52.6%
- Flagstar Bancorp, Inc. - FBC - 48.4%
- Santander BanCorp - SBP - 45.8%
- Washington Mutual, Inc. - WM - 40.6%
- BankAtlantic Bancorp, Inc. - BBX - 38.4%
- Anchor BanCorp Wisconsin Inc. - ABCW - 28.7%
- First Horizon National Corporation - FHN - 27.7%
- Guaranty Financial Group Inc. - GFG - 26.9%
- AMCORE Financial, Inc. - AMFI - 26.5%
- Oriental Financial Group Inc. - OFG - 26.0%
- National City Corporation - NCC - 25.7%
- Popular, Inc. - BPOP - 25.4%
- Capitol Bancorp Ltd. - CBC - 24.8%
- Pacific Capital Bancorp - PCBC - 20.5%
- Fifth Third Bancorp - FITB - 20.2%
- Irwin Financial Corporation - IFC - 20.1%
- Park National Corporation - PRK - 19.4%
- UCBH Holdings, Inc. - UCBH - 19.1%
- Citizens Republic Bancorp, Inc. - CRBC - 18.6%
- Synovus Financial Corp. - SNV - 18.4%
- Central Pacific Financial Corp. - CPF - 16.0%
- SunTrust Banks, Inc. - STI - 15.7%
- South Financial Group, Inc. - TSFG - 15.6%
- Sterling Financial Corporation - STSA - 15.3%
- KeyCorp - KEY - 14.1%
- Colonial BancGroup, Inc. - CNB - 14.0%
- TCF Financial Corporation - TCB - 12.8%
- Marshall & Ilsley Corporation - MI - 12.8%
- PrivateBancorp, Inc. - PVTB - 12.8%
- Wachovia Corporation - WB - 12.0%
- Whitney Holding Corporation - WTNY - 11.8%
- First Commonwealth Financial Corporation - FCF - 11.7%
- Boston Private Financial Holdings, Inc. - BPFH - 11.4%
- Wintrust Financial Corporation - WTFC - 11.3%
- Comerica Incorporated - CMA - 10.9%
- Trustmark Corporation - TRMK - 10.6%
- Northwest Bancorp, Inc. (MHC) - NWSB - 10.3%
- Wells Fargo & Company - WFC - 10.3%
- Citigroup Inc. - C - 10.3%
- Old National Bancorp - ONB - 9.9%
- United Community Banks, Inc. - UCBI - 9.4%
- Signature Bank - SBNY - 9.3%
- Zions Bancorporation - ZION - 9.3%
- Astoria Financial Corporation - AF - 9.2%
- Associated Banc-Corp - ASBC - 9.0%
- BB&T Corporation - BBT - 8.9%
- IBERIABANK Corporation - IBKC - 8.7%
- Webster Financial Corporation - WBS - 8.6%
- Fulton Financial Corporation - FULT - 8.4%
- Bank of America Corporation - BAC - 8.0%
- Provident Bankshares Corporation - PBKS - 7.9%
- Regions Financial Corporation - RF - 7.8%
- Cathay General Bancorp - CATY - 7.7%
- Sovereign Bancorp, Inc. - SOV - 7.6%
- First Midwest Bancorp, Inc. - FMBI - 7.4%
- Wilmington Trust Corporation - WL - 7.4%
- M&T Bank Corporation - MTB - 7.3%
- TFS Financial Corporation (MHC) - TFSL - 7.2%
- WesBanco, Inc. - WSBC - 7.0%
- U.S. Bancorp - USB - 6.8%
- NBT Bancorp Inc. - NBTB - 6.7%
- Umpqua Holdings Corporation - UMPQ - 6.6%
- City National Corporation - CYN - 6.3%
- East West Bancorp, Inc. - EWBC - 6.1%
- BOK Financial Corporation - BOKF - 6.1%
- Capital One Financial Corporation - COF - 5.8%
- Susquehanna Bancshares, Inc. - SUSQ - 5.6%
- MB Financial, Inc. - MBFI - 5.6%
- United Bankshares, Inc. - UBSI - 5.4%
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. - JPM - 5.2%
A good stock play on the Who Is Next list by Richard X. Bove of Ladenburg Thalman would be to buy put options on individual bank stocks because the ones on this list aren’t going back up anytime soon.
And that’s the latest news on at-risk financial institutions on the Who Is Next Bove list.
Tags: bove, bove who is next, ladenburg thalmann, richard x bove, who is next, who is next bove
July 14th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
[...] Read the rest of this great post here [...]
July 15th, 2008 at 5:53 am
read the report again and see that you mixed the two different ratios up . The dangerzone for the ratio you are citing here was 40% not 5 !!
July 15th, 2008 at 11:08 am
40% danger zone is true, but the others are’nt in great shape either. Most of these banks also show huge spikes in non-performing assets and delinquent loans in the last 2 quarters.
That means they’ll have trouble securitizing their loans for resale and their capital flow will be impaired.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:14 am
Chicken Little said, “The sky is falling!” It is absolutely imparitive that the banks take the responsiblity for poor lending tactics to consumers and let the brave souls with insight and remorse come up with a shovel to dig out.
July 21st, 2008 at 2:22 pm
Where can I get a copy of the whole report?