TS Fay - Latest update on TS Fay projected path shows Tropical Storm Fay coming ashore near Fort Myers, Florida with Category 2 hurricane force winds.
The projected path of TS Fay and storm track data below are the latest available from the National Hurricane Center.
The latest spaghetti track models for TS Fay are pictured below:
National Hurricane Center - TS Fay Track
FAY IS APPROACHING A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO…WHICH IS DEVELOPING DUE TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 24 HR…BUT THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH OF A TURN WILL OCCUR.
THE ECMWF…GFS…AND GFDL FORECAST A NORTHEASTWARD TURN TAKING FAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE HWRF…UKMET…AND CANADIAN MODELS CALL FOR A NORTHWARD MOTION OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THEN…THE NOGPAS CALLS FOR A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
OVERALL…THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST THEREAFTER.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS THUS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR…THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
And that’s the latest news on tropical Storm Fay, aka TS Fay.
Tags: hurricane, hurricane fay, national hurricane center, noaa, tropical storm fay, ts fay
August 17th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
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August 17th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
Tropical Storm Fay Update
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A…CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
…FAY MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST…
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST…INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY…AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET…AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
HEAVY RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
August 17th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
2100 UTC SUN AUG 17 2008
AT 5 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE HURRICANE WATCH ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN NOW EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST…INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY…AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
THE LARGE-SCALE FORECAST MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF FAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN…WITH NO CLEAR EVIDENCE AT THIS TIME OF WHICH IS CORRECT.
IT APPEARS THE SHEAR WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FAY TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS SHOWN IN THE GFDL MODEL…AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION ALONG THOSE LINES.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HWRF CALLS FOR FAY TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO…WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST A PEAK JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THE FORECAST TRACK SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF HURRICANE CHARLEY FROM AUGUST 2004…IN THAT A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE EVENTUAL LANDFALL LOCATION.
THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES PRODUCT SHOWS ABOUT AN EQUAL CHANCE OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
August 17th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
National Hurricane Center - Latest Update
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
…FAY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD…SOON TO MOVE OVER CUBA…
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES CUBA…AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT NEARS THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB…29.56 INCHES.
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREFORE SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WHILE FAY IS OVER WATER DURING THE EARLIER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BY 48 HOURS OR SO…SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO INCREASE…AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFDL AND HWRF MODEL PREDICTIONS.
IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. A BETTER WAY OF ASSESSING YOUR RISK IS TO MAKE USE OF THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES.
THESE DO NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR GIVEN LOCATIONS WHEN SMALL ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.
August 18th, 2008 at 9:05 am
National Hurricane Center Update August 18
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
ALL TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FAY WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS UNTIL IT REACHES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE EARLY ON…BUT SOME ADDITIONAL RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE PERSISTS AND THE CYCLONE REMAINS VERTICALLY CONNECTED.
THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY POOR. GIVEN THAT…ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT HAS BEEN MADE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT…WITH THESE WINDS OCCURRING JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS IMPEDING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE…AND SOME WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
GIVEN THIS PATTERN…RAPID STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED…BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FAY FROM REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
NOAA NHC WINDS LOOP VIDEO
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Latest satellite images in continuous loop show storm motion
August 18th, 2008 at 10:26 am
Wind loop video requested
August 18th, 2008 at 10:52 am
Tropical Storm Fay - Latest Update From NHC
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
THE CENTER OF FAY HAS MOVED INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA SHOW STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM…BUT LITTLE ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS ASYMMETRY IS LIKELY DUE TO WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT…WITH RELIABLE-LOOKING SFMR WINDS OF 45-50 KT.
BASED ON THIS AND SIMILAR DOPPLER RADAR WINDS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1003 MB.
FAY HAS BEEN MOVING IN FITS AND STARTS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS…WITH THE CENTER MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST 6 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/11.
FAY IS ENTERING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
BEYOND 36-48 HR…THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT…WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES.
MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS EVOLUTION BY FORECASTING FAY TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER…THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH FORECAST FAY TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND STALL BY 120 HR…WHILE THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A MORE WESTERLY MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER NOTED THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS…SO THESE OUTLIERS ARE IGNORED FOR THE MOMENT.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE NORTHWARD SCENARIO…LYING JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA IN A LITTLE OVER 24 HR.
FAY IS IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT…AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HR.
THIS…COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIR AND THE CURRENT STRUCTURE…WILL LIKELY PREVENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER… THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING…WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS MAKING FAY A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
THUS…THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT. AFTER LANDFALL…FAY SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HR.
THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE…AND THERE IS A DISTINCT CHANCE FAY MIGHT NOT REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL…ESPECIALLY IF IT MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT…SIMILAR TO CHARLEY IN 2004…SMALL DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN WHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER OF FAY MAKES LANDFALL.
NOAA NHC Storm Track VIDEO
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Satellite images in continuous loop show latest storm path
(requires high-speed internet connection)
August 18th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
Tropical Storm Fay - Latest Update From NOAA NHC
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
…CENTER OF FAY APPROACHING KEY WEST…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS…
AT 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES…30 KM…SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…23 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD PASS OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS…AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND FAY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SOMBRERO KEY FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 52 MPH…83 KM/HR…AND A WIND GUST OF 62 MPH…100 KM/HR…AT AN ELEVATION OF 159 FEET.
KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH…76 KM/HR.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB…29.62 INCHES.
STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FAY TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION…24.3 N…81.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB.
August 18th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
Hurricane Fay - Latest Update From National Hurricane Center
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
SATELLITE…RADAR…AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FAY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER…AND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS CONTRACTED TO ABOUT 30 N MI.
ADDITIONALLY…THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 998 MB.
HOWEVER…THIS HAS NOT YET CAUSED THE WINDS TO INCREASE…AS AIRCRAFT…RADAR…AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/10.
FAY IS ENTERING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
BEYOND 36-48 HR…THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT…WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN RESPONDING TO THIS PATTERN.
THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INLAND THEREAFTER.
THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND FORECASTS A NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…WITH A SHARP TURN TO THE WEST AFTER 72 HR.
THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS A SIMILAR FORECAST.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CALL FOR FAY TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC…FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AND MOTION BACK INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AFTER 72 HR.
FINALLY…THE GFDL AND THE HWRF CONTINUE FOR A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION WELL INLAND OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
GIVEN THE INCREASING SIGNAL FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT NEW RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BLOCK FAY’S PROGRESS…THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR.
THE EARLIER PART OF THE TRACK…WHICH CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA IN ABOUT 18 HR FOLLOWED BY A TRACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND LIES NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
WHILE FAY REMAINS IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IS BATTLING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT…THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT SEVERE ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING.
THUS…THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL.
WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY A FORECAST POINT…IT IS LIKELY THAT FAY WILL MAKE LANDFALL AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.
AFTER 24 HR…THE INTENSITY WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON WHETHER FAY IS OVER LAND…AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON FAY REMAINING OVER LAND AND THUS DISSIPATING.
IF FAY REGAINS THE ATLANTIC OR THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD…IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONGER THAN FORECAST.
August 18th, 2008 at 8:33 pm
Hurricane Fay Track - Latest Update
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
…FAY HEADED NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST…
AT 800 PM EDT…0000Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES…170 KM…SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY…AND FAY IS FORECAST TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES…205 KM FROM THE CENTER.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION…25.0 N…81.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB.
August 18th, 2008 at 10:57 pm
NOAA National Hurricane center - Latest Update
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
FAY’S ORGANIZATION HAS WAXED AND WANED THIS EVENING.
THE STORM BECAME QUITE DISORGANIZED IN APPEARANCE ON WSR-88D RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI EARLIER THIS EVENING…AND THEN SHOWED INCREASED SPIRAL BANDING BUT NO CLOSED EYEWALL STRUCTURE.
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE BUT NO INCREASE IN FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS YET.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OR CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS AND THIS ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO IMPARTING MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER FAY.
NONETHELESS…THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR FAY TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE PRIOR TO CROSSING THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING.
OUR FORECAST FOR FAY’S WEAKENING OVER THE PENINSULA MORE OR LESS FOLLOWS THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL.
AIRCRAFT AND RADAR FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION NEAR 360/8.
FAY IS MOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS EAST AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST AND NORTHWEST.
SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE…SUCH AS THE GFDL…HWRF…AND U.K. MET OFFICE MODELS…HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST FOR FAY’S TREK ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ALSO ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT.
AFTER 1-2 DAYS…GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STEERING PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND BLOCKS THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THERE IS GREAT DIVERSITY IN THE OBJECTIVE TRACK FORECASTS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD…AND THEREFORE LARGER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE FAY WILL EVENTUALLY GO.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE HIGHLY SPREAD MODEL TRACKS.
THE FORECAST OF FAY’S INTENSITY IN THE 72-120 HOUR TIME FRAME IS OF COURSE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WATER.
SHOULD FAY REMAIN VERY NEAR OR OVER LAND…IT WOULD PROBABLY WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE.
August 19th, 2008 at 8:27 am
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
SFMR…DROPSONDE…AND FLIGHT-LEVEL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT FAY DID NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH…IF AT ALL…BEFORE COMING ASHORE.
A DROPSONDE REPORTED A SURFACE WIND OF 49 KT…AND THERE WERE BELIEVABLE 49 KT WINDS FROM THE SFMR. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED WAS 61 KT.
BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS…THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT. THERE WERE A FEW SFMR WINDS ABOUT 5 KT HIGHER THAT MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT HAVE BEEN CORRECT…BUT IN ANY EVENT FAY DIDN’T MAKE IT TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.
FAY SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IF THE CENTER DOES EMERGE INTO THE ATLANTIC AS FORECAST…FAY WILL FIND ITSELF IN A MORE FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-AIR PATTERN IN ABOUT TWO DAYS…AND SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/8.
OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO A CONSENSUS HAS BEEN BUILDING ON FAY BEING TRAPPED BENEATH A MIGRATORY MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERLIES…WITH EVEN THE GFDL BEGINNING TO BACK OFF ON A PROLONGED NORTHWARD MOTION.
THE GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS A SLIGHTLY SHARPER SLOWDOWN AND TURN TO THE WEST…IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0900Z 25.9N 81.7W 50 KT…LANDFALL
12HR VT 19/1800Z 27.0N 81.3W 45 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 20/0600Z 28.3N 80.9W 35 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 20/1800Z 29.3N 80.7W 35 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 30.0N 81.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 30.5N 82.0W 30 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 23/0600Z 31.0N 83.5W 25 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 24/0600Z 31.0N 85.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
August 19th, 2008 at 8:55 am
Tropical Storm Fay Crossing Florida
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A…CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
..CORRECTION FOR LOCATION FROM FT MYERS
…FAY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD…AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTHWARD…INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE…AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE…INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT AT 800 AM EDT…1200Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED INLAND IN SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST…OR ABOUT 30 MILES…50 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA AND 35 MILES…55 KM SOUTHWEST OF MOORE HAVEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/HR…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY…TAKING THE CENTER OF FAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS FAY MOVES FARTHER INLAND TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES…205 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB…29.18 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION…26.5 N…81.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…988 MB.
August 19th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
National Hurricane Center - Latest Fay Storm Track
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT FAY HAS KEPT A WELL DEFINED PATTERN…AND IN FACT…RADAR SHOWS A RING OF CONVECTION WHICH RESEMBLES AN EYE FEATURE.
DOPPLER VELOCITIES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AND BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 986 MB.
FAY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
THEREAFTER…IT SHOULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE 24 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD WHEN FAY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WATER JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
IF FAY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE ON RADAR…THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED.
AT THIS TIME…THE FORECAST INTENSITY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.
THE GFDL IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES FAY A STRONGER CYCLONE OVER THE WATER JUST EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA.
DO NOT RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY YET.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER…THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING RIDGE.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD FIRST WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS..CAUSING FAY TO SLOW DOWN AND THEN…AS THE RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER…THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTH FLORIDA OR THE GEORGIA COAST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA OR GEORGIA.
August 19th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
National Hurricane Center - Latest Fay Update
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
300 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
…FAY CONTINUES TO BATTER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA…
AT 300 PM EDT…1900Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES…30 KM…WEST-SOUTHWEST OF OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK…FAY SHOULD MOVE OVER WATER NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH…105 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS FAY MOVES INLAND OVER FLORIDA.
SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN FAY MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF A WIND GUST OF 78 MPH…125 KM/HR…WAS MEASURED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING THE PAST HOUR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB…29.12 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA..WITH MAXIMUM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.
August 19th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
National Hurricane Center - Tropical Storm Fay Update
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
FAY DID NOT WEAKEN OVER LAND AS ANTICIPATED AND IN FACT…IT IS STRONGER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN SO FAR.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 55 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE…RADAR AND CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
THIS HAS PROMPTED A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
GIVEN THAT FAY HAS KEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON RADAR AND ON SATELLITE…THE CHANCES THAT THE CYCLONE BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED.
THE INTENSIFICATION IS SUPPORTED BY SHIPS…THE GFDL AND THE HWRF MODELS…AND IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH FAY HAS BEEN TRACKED BY SATELLITE AND NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.
CURRENTLY FAY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
HOWEVER…THIS STEERING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE SOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF FAY.
THIS NEW STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE FAY TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA.
FOLLOWING CONTINUITY…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER WESTWARD TURN.
IF SO…SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.
THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 27.3N 81.0W 55 KT…INLAND
12HR VT 20/0600Z 28.2N 80.5W 55 KT…OVER WATER
24HR VT 20/1800Z 29.0N 80.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 30.0N 81.4W 65 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 22/1800Z 30.5N 83.0W 30 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 23/1800Z 31.4N 85.5W 25 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 24/1800Z 32.0N 87.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
August 19th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
Fay Latest Update
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
AFTER FAY’S UNEXPECTED STRENGTHENING EPISODE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLIER TODAY…THE STORM IS NOW BEHAVING IN A MORE NORMAL FASHION.
THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED…WITH THE EYE NO LONGER EVIDENT…AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 45 KT.
FAY WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE WHILE ITS CENTER IS OVER LAND.
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AS DEPICTED BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE.
THEREFORE FAY IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE RESTRENGTHENING WHEN IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER ON WEDNESDAY.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST SHIPS FORECAST.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
OF COURSE…THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF FAY IS ALSO STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE CENTER STAYS OVER WATER.
RADAR FIXES SHOWED THAT FAY NEARLY STALLED A FEW HOURS AGO…AND THEN WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE EAST.
CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS BACK ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK…OR 030/4.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FAY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS.
THIS EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN WOULD BEGIN TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FAY WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE COAST AFTER MOVING JUST OFFSHORE.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST ON THIS PACKAGE. THIS IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0300Z 27.7N 80.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 28.4N 80.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 29.0N 80.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 29.5N 80.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 29.9N 81.7W 65 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 23/0000Z 30.5N 83.5W 30 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 24/0000Z 31.0N 85.5W 25 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 25/0000Z 32.0N 87.5W 20 KT…INLAND…REMNANT LOW
August 20th, 2008 at 8:11 am
Tropical Storm Fay Tracking - Latest Update
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS TURNED SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER FINALLY REACHING THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER…THE CENTER REMAINS JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA AND MAY NOT EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE CAPE CANAVERAL AREA.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A TIGHTER TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN A SHARPER WESTWARD JOG ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AFTER 36 HOURS AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS.
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS SCENARIO AND KEEP FAY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA AND ALABAMA…BUT EVEN THOSE MODELS ARE NO LONGER TAKING FAY EAST OF 80W LONGITUDE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH…OR LEFT…OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE POSSIBILITY OF FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IS BECOMING SMALLER NOW THAT FAY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN 30 NM OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
EVEN IF FAY DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK…NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATES THAT SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED BY AS MUCH AS 3 CELSIUS…WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INCORPORATING.
THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE ALSO NO LONGER FORECASTING FAY TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.
FAY HAS MAINTAINED GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES AND IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW…SO SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SHIPS MODEL.
HOWEVER…IF FAY REMAINS FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO LAND…THEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH THROUGH 36 HOURS.
IF FAY MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO… THEN INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE TOO LOW AFTER 72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0900Z 28.2N 80.6W 45 KT…JUST INLAND
12HR VT 20/1800Z 28.8N 80.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 29.3N 80.9W 60 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 29.6N 81.5W 50 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 22/0600Z 30.0N 82.5W 30 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 23/0600Z 30.4N 84.1W 30 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 24/0600Z 30.7N 86.0W 25 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 25/0600Z 31.0N 88.0W 25 KT…INLAND
August 20th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
…FAY STALLS NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL…DUMPING TORRENTIAL RAINS…
AT 200 PM EDT…1800Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST ABOUT 15 MILES…20 KM…NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. FAY IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION LATER TODAY WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER WATER WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB…29.44 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA…WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA.
August 20th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Fay Path - Latest Update
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
FAY HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE AND RADAR DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS SPIRALING AROUND THE CENTER BUT THE CYCLONE LACKS AN INNER CORE.
SURFACE AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING…THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING…IF AT ALL.
FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT IT BEGAN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF FAY IS ALREADY BLOCKING ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND FAY SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ISSUE REGARDING THE SLOW MOTION IS THAT FAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DUMP TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS PATH…AND WILL PROBABLY BE REMEMBERED AS A VERY WET STORM.
THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST KEEPING FAY OVER LAND IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK GUIDANCE.
ONLY THE ECMWF MODEL BRINGS FAY OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 28.8N 80.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 29.2N 80.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 29.5N 81.8W 45 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 22/0600Z 29.8N 83.0W 30 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 22/1800Z 30.2N 84.0W 25 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 23/1800Z 31.3N 86.5W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 24/1800Z 32.5N 88.4W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 25/1800Z 33.5N 89.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
August 20th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
FAY HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY WHILE CENTERED ONLY ABOUT 20 N MI OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA…AS SHOWN BY NWS WSR-88D RADAR DATA AND CONFIRMED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT.
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE STORM HAS OCCASIONALLY LOOKED FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE…WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND WHAT ESSENTIALLY QUALIFIES AS AN EYE.
WSR-88D VELOCITIES ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
THE MOST RECENT COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS SETTLED FOR NOW AT 994 MB. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE FAY IN A FEW HOURS.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF FAY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD GET FAY MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD…ALTHOUGH SLOWLY…WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA…SINCE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING…THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
ONCE FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TOMORROW…GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE.
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SAGGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH…AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST POINTS LISTED BELOW DO NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT…THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK HUGS THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
IF FAY ENDS UP MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST…AND SPENDS MORE TIME THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF…IT COULD BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH A COUPLE OF DAYS FROM NOW.
IF…HOWEVER…IT MOVES NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK…IT COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK…FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0300Z 28.9N 80.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 29.2N 81.2W 50 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 22/0000Z 29.4N 82.2W 40 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 22/1200Z 29.7N 83.3W 30 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 23/0000Z 30.1N 84.6W 30 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 24/0000Z 31.0N 87.0W 30 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 25/0000Z 32.0N 89.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 26/0000Z 32.5N 90.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
August 21st, 2008 at 8:10 am
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT FAY IS NOT STRENGTHENING.
THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 850 MB FROM THE AIRCRAFT WAS 62 KT…CORRESPONDING TO SURFACE WINDS OF 50 KT…WITH PEAK ACTUAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF 50 KT FROM A DROPSONDE AND 51 KT FROM THE SFMR.
THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY AROUND 993-994 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA…THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 50 KT.
AFTER DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER TONIGHT…FAY IS NEARLY STATIONARY AGAIN JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FAY…WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CYCLONE’S CURRENT STALL…IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD WESTWARD AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS OUT OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN FAY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE…ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND NOW SHOWS A TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET GUIDANCE AND IS JUST A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE NET CHANGE IN THE RADAR PRESENTATION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS…AND THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS ACTUALLY DEGRADED SLIGHTLY WITH SOME EROSION NOTED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
WHILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS STILL SUPPPORT SOME INTENSIFICATION…THE BROAD STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE’S CORE WOULD ARGUE AGAINST MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
ASSUMING THAT THE TRACK FORECAST IS CORRECT IN KEEPING FAY INLAND AFTER THAT…A GRADUAL WEAKENING WOULD BE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT…HOWEVER…SHOULD FAY GO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK…FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
August 21st, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Fay Track Update
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
NWS DOPPLER RADAR…AIRCRAFT DATA…SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF FAY’S LARGE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN SLOWLY CROSSING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH THE MINIMUM PRESSURE NEAR FLAGLER BEACH.
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES REMARKABLY WELL-DEFINED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.
DOPPLER WINDS AND RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS.
SOME HIGHER WINDS COULD HAVE OCCURRED OVER WATER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT A FEW HOURS AGO BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST.
NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING INLAND…A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.
FAY IS ALREADY SOUTH OF A RIDGE AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS.
THIS HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SLOW WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THEREAFTER…STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD COLLAPSE AGAIN AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FAY SHOULD MOVE VERY LITTLE.
SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA GULF COAST…ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING THE CENTER BACK OVER THE WATER AND FAY COULD PERHAPS RETAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
THIS UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK…FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 29.4N 81.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 29.5N 82.2W 40 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 22/1800Z 29.7N 83.3W 30 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 23/0600Z 29.9N 84.8W 30 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 23/1800Z 30.4N 86.5W 30 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 24/1800Z 31.0N 88.5W 30 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 25/1800Z 31.5N 90.0W 25 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 26/1800Z 32.0N 90.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
August 21st, 2008 at 10:50 pm
Fay Track - Latest Update
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
FAY HAS STILL REFUSED TO DECIDEDLY BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD AS WE AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING…BUT IT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WESTWARD…WITH THE CENTER LOCATED JUST INLAND FROM THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IN RADAR IMAGERY HAS DEGRADED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS…BUT WSR-88D VELOCITIES SUGGEST THAT SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER REMAIN AS STRONG AS ABOUT 50 KT…ALTHOUGH THAT RADAR FEATURE HAS BEEN STEADILY SHRINKING.
EVEN THOUGH WE SAID THIS LAST NIGHT…AND IT DID NOT HAPPEN…ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FAY SHOULD START TRULY MOVING WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS…AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THAT RIDGE SHOULD KEEP FAY ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH SINCE THE LAST CYCLE…SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…TAKING FAY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST.
SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF…WHILE THE GFS…GFDL…AND UKMET FORECAST FAY TO REMAIN INLAND OVER THE PANHANDLE.
LATER…AT 3 TO 5 DAYS…MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER SLOWDOWN AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BLOCKS FAY’S FORWARD PROGRESS AGAIN. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK SHOWS ESSENTIALLY NO MOTION BEYOND 72 HOURS.
THE EXACT TRACK COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW STRONG FAY IS AFTER CROSSING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
IF THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACKS ARE CORRECT AND FAY SPENDS A GOOD BIT OF TIME CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF…IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN BEYOND 24 HOURS…BUT IF THE OPPOSITE OCCURS AND IT NEVER EMERGES BACK OVER WATER…PERMANENT WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION COULD HAPPEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST…AND USING THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AS GUIDANCE…THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS FAY AS A BORDERLINE TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS…REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK…FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0300Z 29.3N 81.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 29.4N 82.3W 40 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 23/0000Z 29.6N 83.7W 35 KT…OVER GULF OF MEXICO
36HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 85.3W 35 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 24/0000Z 30.4N 86.7W 35 KT…NEAR COAST
72HR VT 25/0000Z 31.0N 88.5W 30 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 26/0000Z 31.2N 89.0W 25 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 27/0000Z 31.5N 89.5W 25 KT…INLAND
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:48 am
Latest Fay Path Update
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008
SATELLITE…RADAR…AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF FAY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS…WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS 50 N MI OR MORE FROM THE CENTER AND THE STRONGEST RAINBANDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
WSR-88D DOPPLER WINDS DATA SUGGEST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE INTENSITY…WHICH IS SET AT 45 KT IN THIS ADVISORY.
THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR TO POOR ELSEWHERE.
FAY HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE PAST 6 HR WITH THE INITIAL MOTION OF 280/5.
THE CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES…AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE FAY TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD…WITH ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR FAY TO MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY…AS THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HR THAN IT DID 6 HR AGO.
AFTER 72 HR…MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE…WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AT THIS POINT…SO THE TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOW NORTHEASTERLY MOTION.
DUE TO FAY’S PROXIMITY TO LAND…THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRUCTURE. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…FAY WILL NOT LIKELY BE OVER WATER LONG ENOUGH TO INTENSITY.
ON THIS BASIS…THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.
IF FAY MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK…IT WILL MOVE INLAND EARLIER AND WEAKEN FASTER.
IF IT MOVES LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK MORE OVER OPEN WATER…IT COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST.
HOWEVER…THE CURRENT BROAD STRUCTURE IS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST WESTERLY SHEAR TO IMPACT FAY STARTING IN ABOUT 72 HR…WHICH SHOULD STOP INTENSIFICATION REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IT IS OVER WATER OR NOT.
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK…FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0900Z 29.6N 82.2W 45 KT…INLAND
12HR VT 22/1800Z 29.7N 83.2W 40 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 23/0600Z 29.8N 84.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 30.1N 86.1W 35 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 30.5N 87.5W 35 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 25/0600Z 31.0N 89.5W 30 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 26/0600Z 31.0N 90.0W 25 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 27/0600Z 32.0N 89.5W 20 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW
August 22nd, 2008 at 4:57 pm
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008
THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN RAIN BANDS MOSTLY OVER WATER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER…FAY COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD HOLD FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS…FORCING FAY TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK.
THEREAFTER…STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FAY COULD BEGIN TO MEANDER. BY THEN…FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW.
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK…FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
August 22nd, 2008 at 11:13 pm
Latest Tropical Storm Fay Forecast
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008
THE CENTER OF FAY CROSSED THE COAST OF THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR KEATON BEACH AT ABOUT 2200 UTC…EMERGING OVER APALACHEE BAY IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE CIRCULATION CENTER ITSELF IS NOT ESPECIALLY WELL-DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY…BUT A POTENT NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER WATER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THIS BAND ARE ABOUT 45 KT…SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
AN EXPANSIVE RAIN SHIELD EXTENDS WELL INLAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER…AND WHILE WINDS ARE GUSTY IN THOSE REGIONS…SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING INLAND.
THE AIRCRAFT FIXES LEAD TO AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/7…AS FAY LUMBERS ALONG TO THE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THAT RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORCE FAY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT SPEED SIMILAR TO THAT CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
AS A RESULT…FAY WILL BE SKIRTING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…ALABAMA…AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER…MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE AGAIN…AND VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ENSUE REGARDING WHERE AND HOW FAST A WEAKENING FAY WILL GO.
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW RELATIVELY LITTLE NET MOTION ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ONLY SHOWS A SLOW BEND TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE CENTER OF FAY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO…WHILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT A TROPICAL STORM.
THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON TO FORECAST WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…GIVEN THAT FAY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST AND APPEARS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH IN STRUCTURE.
BEYOND 24 HOURS…INCREASING LAND INTERACTION AND A GRADUAL RAMPING UP OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST OF FAY TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REQUIRES A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK…FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0300Z 29.7N 84.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 29.8N 85.3W 45 KT…NEAR COAST
24HR VT 24/0000Z 30.1N 86.9W 45 KT…OVER WATER
36HR VT 24/1200Z 30.5N 88.5W 40 KT…NEAR COAST
48HR VT 25/0000Z 30.5N 90.0W 35 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 26/0000Z 30.5N 91.0W 30 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 27/0000Z 31.5N 91.5W 25 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 90.5W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
August 23rd, 2008 at 2:06 pm
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008
FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD WITH HALF OF ITS CIRCULATION OVER WATER AND HALF OVER LAND.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AND MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH THE STRONGEST ONE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS AND BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER WATER…FAY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR THE THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER…AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES FARTHER INLAND A MORE DEFINITE WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK AND FAY IS MOVING WESTWARD OT 275 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. FAY CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN 3 DAYS OR SO. THEREAFTER…FAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS A REMNANT LOW.
THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK…FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 30.1N 85.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 30.1N 86.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 30.5N 88.4W 40 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 25/0000Z 30.6N 89.5W 40 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 25/1200Z 30.7N 90.5W 35 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 26/1200Z 31.0N 91.5W 30 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 27/1200Z 32.5N 90.5W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 28/1200Z 33.5N 89.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW