Hurricane Gustav 2008 - Continuous updates on Hurricane Gustav 2008 with latest spaghetti models from the National Hurricane Center.
The Hurricane Gustav 2008 tracking models below are the latest computer spaghetti models of this huge storm’s projected path.
The latest projected path for Hurricane Gustav is posted below along with NOAA winds storm tracking predictions.
Latest storm track model shows projected path for Hurricane Gustav 2008:
Updates tracking Gustav’s path are added below as they occur.
Hurricane Gustav 2008 - NHC Forecast Predictions
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES…ON WHICH THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE BECAME EVIDENT…INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1730 UTC.
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 992 MB WAS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT JUST AS THE CENTER MOVED INLAND…HOWEVER A DROPSONDE RELEASED JUST EAST OF THE EYE HAD A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 997 MB WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 64 KT.
SO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE MAY HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN 992 MB.
IN ANY EVENT…NOW THAT THE CENTER IS MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI…GUSTAV IS LIKELY LOSING STRENGTH.
THE EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES…AND THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH ONLY A LITTLE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR…AND THEREFORE GUSTAV IS LIKELY TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR GUSTAV IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS…LGEM…HWRF…AND GFDL GUIDANCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST.
IT SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND MODEL FORECASTS OF INTENSITY HAVE LITTLE SKILL IN THE 3- TO 5-DAY RANGE.
INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 305/9.
THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE STEERING PATTERN FOR GUSTAV CONTINUES TO BE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE/HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE’S HEADING SHOULD GRADUALLY BEND TOWARD THE LEFT AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO…AND OVERALL THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.
THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS ESSENTIALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/2100Z 18.4N 73.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 18.9N 74.0W 75 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 19.3N 75.2W 80 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 19.5N 76.6W 85 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 19.6N 78.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 20.3N 81.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 22.5N 85.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 31/1800Z 25.5N 88.5W 105 KT
The computer models tracking Gustav predict the storm hitting the Gulf Coast as a MAJOR hurricane, possibly even a Category 4.
And that’s the latest update from the National Hurricane Center on the projected path of Hurricane Gustav 2008.
Tags: gustav 2008, hurricane gustav, hurricane gustav 2008, hurricane gustav projected path, hurricane gustav track, hurricanes 2008
August 26th, 2008 at 9:50 pm
[...] admin wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptHurricane Gustav 2008 - Continuous updates on Hurricane Gustav 2008 with latest spaghetti models from the National Hurricane Center. The Hurricane Gustav 2008 tracking models below are the latest computer spaghetti models of this huge storm’s projected path. The latest projected path for Hurricane Gustav is posted below along with NOAA winds storm tracking predictions. Latest storm track [...] [...]
August 26th, 2008 at 10:18 pm
Gustav Track - Latest Update On Computer Models
Gustav could be Category 4 hurricane in 72 hours…
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008
BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z THIS EVENING…RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE CUBAN RADAR SITE AT GRAN PIEDRA DEPICTED A NICE DOUGHNUT SHAPED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI.
HOWEVER…SINCE THAT TIME BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE EYE FEATURE HAS DEGENERATED INTO A RAGGED AND POORLY DEFINED FEATURE.
THEREFORE…GUSTAV HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AND THE INTENSITY LOWERED TO 60 KT…WHICH IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE T4.0/65 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES DERIVED AT 00Z.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED BUT IMPROVING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT… AND IS EXCELLENT IN THE OTHER THREE QUADRANTS.
GUSTAV IS MOVING BACK OVER WATER AND IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY ONCE IT CLEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI.
MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS 290/07…ALTHOUGH THE MOTION OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS HAS BEEN ALMOST DUE WEST.
THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE THE LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS…WHICH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER AND ACT TO SLOW DOWN GUSTAV BY DAY 5.
THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE GFDL AND ECMWF MODELS…WHICH BLAST GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER-TROUGH TO THE TEXAS COAST. THIS SEEMS PHYSICALLY UNLIKELY AT THIS JUNCTURE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY DAYS 4 AND 5.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK…AND REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN THE EXPECTATION THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PLAY A MORE PROMINENT ROLE THAN INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND ECMWF.
GUSTAV IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE…WHICH IS INDUCING SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE.
HOWEVER…THE FLOW IS ALSO STRONGLY DIFLUENT…WHICH SHOULD AID THE RE-INTENSIFICATION PROCESS ONCE GUSTAV CLEARS THE WESTERN PORTION OF HAITI.
BOTH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY BRINGING GUSTAV TO JUST BELOW CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS.
AFTER THAT…POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR MAY CREATE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE LATTER FORECAST PERIODS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0300Z 18.6N 73.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 18.9N 74.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 19.0N 75.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 19.2N 77.1W 85 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 19.4N 78.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 20.5N 82.2W 110 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 23.0N 86.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 01/0000Z 26.5N 89.5W 110 KT
August 27th, 2008 at 8:09 am
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
GUSTAV HAS BEEN HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI THIS MORNING WITH STRONG BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB AND RELIABLE SFMR WINDS OF 45-50 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 50 KT.
LITTLE INTENSIFICATION IS FORESEEN UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI. THEREAFTER…A STEADY INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY…ESPECIALLY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INTO THE MORE OPEN WATERS NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT…AND COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM WATERS…RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CENTER IS NEAR OR SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM EARLIER DUE TO THE INITIAL WEAKENING BUT STILL SHOWS THE STORM BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
IN THE LONGER-TERM…THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF UPPER-WIND PATTERNS…BUT IN GENERAL THE UPPER WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE STORM HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH RECENTLY BUT AN AVERAGED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS YIELDS AN ESTIMATE OF 300/4.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS LIKELY TODAY AS THE STORM BUMPS INTO A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
GUSTAV SHOULD THEN BE STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE GFS IS AN EXTREME OUTLIER EARLY ON…TAKING THE STORM NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA…WHICH IS CONSIDERED VERY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0900Z 18.6N 73.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 19.0N 74.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 19.1N 75.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 19.2N 77.2W 70 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 19.6N 78.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 21.0N 82.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 31/0600Z 23.5N 86.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 01/0600Z 27.0N 89.5W 105 KT
August 27th, 2008 at 8:22 am
Tracking Hurricane Gustav
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
…GUSTAV CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS TO HAITI…
AT 800 AM EDT…1200Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES…150 KM…WEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 120 MILES…195 KM…SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.
A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…GUSTAV SHOULD PASS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THURSDAY ONCE IT MOVES AWAY FROM HAITI.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES…85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 997 MB…29.44 INCHES.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA…EASTERN CUBA…JAMAICA…AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION…18.8 N…73.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.
August 27th, 2008 at 10:18 am
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
GUSTAV HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI.
HOWEVER RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM GRAN PIEDRA CUBA SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS IN THE STORM DID NOT ACTUALLY SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT…BUT BASED ON THE TREND SEEN IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WE ASSUME THAT GUSTAV IS PROBABLY VERY NEAR THAT INTENSITY BY NOW.
CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE SOME MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM BUT OTHERWISE THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING…ONCE GUSTAV PULLS AWAY FROM HAITI. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH DAY 3.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AT DAYS 4 AND 5… SO WE SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NOTWITHSTANDING…THERE IS VERY LITTLE…IF ANY…SKILL IN INTENSITY PREDICTIONS AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES.
INDEED…IF ONE LOOKS AT THE LATEST WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE…IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THERE IS NEARLY AN EQUAL CHANCE THAT GUSTAV WILL BE A CATEGORY 1…CATEGORY 2…OR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING AS IT INTERACTED WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LANDMASS OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI.
HOWEVER A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION…290/4…APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED THIS MORNING.
A 500 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR FLORIDA WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD AND WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BEGINNING AROUND DAY 3…THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT BY DAY 5.
ONE SHOULD NOT READ MUCH INTO SUCH SHIFTS OF THE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE TYPICAL ERROR OF A 5-DAY PREDICTION IS OVER 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/1500Z 18.8N 74.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 19.0N 74.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 19.2N 76.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 19.3N 77.5W 70 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 19.9N 79.4W 80 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 21.5N 83.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 24.5N 86.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 28.5N 88.5W 100 KT
August 27th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
GUSTAV GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA…
AT 200 PM EDT…1800Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES…225 KM…WEST OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 90 MILES…145 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/HR.
A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…GUSTAV SHOULD PASS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER…ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OF GUSTAV VERY NEAR JAMAICA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY FROM HAITI…AND THE STORM COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES…85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB…29.44 INCHES.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA…EASTERN CUBA…JAMAICA…AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION…18.8 N…74.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
August 27th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Hurricane Gustav Track Predictions
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO GUSTAV INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED A BIT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 999 MB AND A PEAK SFMR WIND OF ABOUT 45 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
DESPITE THE SHORT-TERM WEAKENING…ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA…LIKELY TONIGHT.
STILL…THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE INTENSITY MODELS WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING ROBUST STRENGTHENING…AND THE STATISTICALLY-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THAT FORECAST ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
GUSTAV CONTINUES TO CRAWL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/03.
THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED.
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
IN 2-3 DAYS…THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST…TAKING GUSTAV OVER OR VERY NEAR WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
BY DAY 5…SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS COULD WEAKEN RESULTING IN A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED.
IN GENERAL…THE TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE STILL REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING GUSTAV’S ULTIMATE TRACK AT DAYS 3-5…AND IT IS MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT IMPACT THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/2100Z 19.1N 74.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 19.1N 75.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 19.2N 76.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 19.5N 78.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 20.2N 79.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 22.0N 83.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 31/1800Z 25.5N 86.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 01/1800Z 28.5N 88.5W 100 KT
August 27th, 2008 at 7:07 pm
National Hurricane Center - Gustav Track Update
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
GUSTAV TURNS WESTWARD AND WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE…
AT 800 PM EDT…0000Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR 65
MILES…100 KM…SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR.
A TRACK TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…GUSTAV SHOULD PASS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER…ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF GUSTAV VERY NEAR JAMAICA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HOWEVER…SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE GUSTAV MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM HAITI…AND THE STORM COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES…85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 999 MB…29.50 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION…19.0 N…75.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
August 27th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
Hurricane Gustav Path
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS AT 23Z. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF GUSTAV BEGAN TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.
PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 39 KT AND THE HIGHEST RECENT BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS WERE 41 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 250/7…ALTHOUGH THE CENTER HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO TRACK SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST FIX AND MIGHT BE A LITTLE SOUTH OF MY ADVISORY POSITION.
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE…ORIENTED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST…IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THIS RIDGE HAS IMPARTED A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION THAT SOME MODELS SHOW PERSISTING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO.
AFTER THAT…GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD IS THE EVOLUTION AND IMPACT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING HIGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD REMINISCENT OF WHAT HAPPENED WITH FAY A WEEK OR SO AGO.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS…THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES MOST STRONGLY ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF…UKMET…GFDL…AND GFS…WHICH IS NOW FOLLOWING THE VORTEX FAIRLY WELL…AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE LEFT.
GUSTAV HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY DISPRUPTED BY ITS ENCOUNTER WITH THE TERRAIN OF HAITI. IN ADDITION…MID-LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE OVERTAKING THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHEAST.
IN ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS…HOWEVER…GUSTAV SHOULD FIND ITSELF UNDER AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AND OVER THE VERY DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…AND SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN.
IN ADDITION…THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES GUSTAV OVER THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.
AFTER THAT…GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION RATE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER RESTRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INITIALLY…BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR…AND ROUGHLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
IT PROBABLY WOULDN’T HURT TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE 5-DAY OFFICIAL TRACK ERROR IS ABOUT 300 MILES…AND THE AVERAGE 5-DAY INTENSITY ERROR IS ABOUT 25 MPH.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0300Z 18.8N 75.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 18.8N 76.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 18.9N 78.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 19.4N 79.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 20.1N 81.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 31/0000Z 22.5N 84.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 02/0000Z 29.0N 89.5W 95 KT
August 28th, 2008 at 8:57 am
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND A SURPRISE THIS MORNING.
GUSTAV HAS EITHER REFORMED TO THE SOUTH OR BEEN MOVING MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
IN ADDITION…THE PRESSURE IS DOWN 10 MB DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS.
THE PLANE HAS NOT YET SAMPLED THE ENTIRE STORM…BUT IT IS ASSUMED THE WINDS HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY WITH THE SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALL AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR…SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR…AND INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA MAY LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THUS THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY RAISED FROM EARLIER.
THEREAFTER…THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE TO BE NEAR THE CENTER OF GUSTAV…WHICH WOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.
IT IS EXPECTED THAT GUSTAV WILL BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE NORTHERN GULF BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 215/7.
THE REFORMATION OF THE CENTER HAS CAUSED A BIG SOUTHWARD CHANGE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST…AND GUSTAV IS NOW FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA.
THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING THIS SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW GUSTAV TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AROUND THE TIME IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A MID-LATITUDE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE OHIO VALLEY IN ABOUT 5 DAYS…WHICH MAY CONTINUE STEERING THE STORM IN A NORTHWESTWARD FASHION RATHER THAN ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION LIKE THE GFDL SUGGESTS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD IN THE LONGER-TERM…ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE…BUT THE ECMWF AND GFDL ARE TO THE RIGHT OF THE NHC FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0900Z 17.8N 75.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 17.5N 77.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 17.8N 78.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 18.5N 80.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 19.5N 82.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 22.0N 85.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 89.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 28.5N 91.0W 100 KT
August 28th, 2008 at 10:50 am
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT ABOUT 1130 UTC SHOWED THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAD BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE EARLIER THIS MORNING.
MY SENSE FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY SINCE THEN IS THAT GUSTAV HAS STARTED MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD…PERHAPS 265/4.
IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE CENTER WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER JAMAICA OR WILL HUG THE SOUTH OR NORTH COAST…BUT WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA…ALL MODELS FORECAST GUSTAV TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FOLLOWING FEW DAYS.
THE MODELS ALSO FORECAST A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME…BUT SUFFICIENTLY PROGRESSIVE SUCH THAT IT WOULD NOT BLOCK GUSTAV’S NORTHWARD PROGRESS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA…AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THAT THE HIGH TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD FORCE GUSTAV TO TURN A LITTLE BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF…BUT THESE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MINORITY.
THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES SHOW A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…AND IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST TO BE IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS.
RELIABLE MODELS REMAIN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FORECAST TRACK…SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT OFFICIAL TRACK.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA…AND ANOTHER AIR FORCE PLANE WILL ARRIVE ON THE SCENE THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO REORGANIZE…BUT THE INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO MIGHT LIMIT INTENSIFICATION…ALTHOUGH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH COULD MAKE GUSTAV A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME TODAY.
AFTER PASSING JAMAICA…GUSTAV WILL ENCOUNTER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT…FAVORING INTENSIFICATION.
ANY INTERACTION WITH THE NARROW LANDMASS OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE STRENGTH OF GUSTAV OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO…WHERE WATERS WILL BE WARM BUT WIND SHEAR COULD SLOWLY INCREASE.
THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE FASTER STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…BUT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.
August 28th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
National Hurricane Center - Gustav Projected Path
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TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA AT ABOUT 1800 UTC TODAY…BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT WAS ABLE TO FLY THROUGH THE CENTER NEAR THAT TIME.
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS INDICATED THAT GUSTAV WAS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE INTENSITY…BUT THE DATA WERE NOT QUITE CONVINCING ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY WHICH REMAINS 60 KT.
THE AIRCRAFT SUBSEQUENTLY DETECTED THE CENTER LOCATED INLAND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND.
A LITTLE WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS GUSTAV INTERACTS WITH LAND…BUT ONCE IT EMERGES OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TOMORROW…CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.
DUE TO THE VERY WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA…COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT…IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AT SOME POINT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…ALTHOUGH THAT IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PROHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING EITHER…SO GUSTAV COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN A FEW DAYS…AS FORECAST BY ESSENTIALLY ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
GUSTAV IS RESPONDING TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH BY CONTINUING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 275/5.
A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THAT RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SHOULD IMPART A GRADUAL RIGHT TURN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND GENERALLY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERNMOST PROVINCES OF CUBA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES OVER THE GULF…HOWEVER…BOTH IN TERMS OF PATH AND FORWARD SPEED…BOUNDED BY THE FAST GFDL ON THE RIGHT AND A MUCH SLOWER GFS ON THE LEFT.
DESPITE SOME CHANGES IN THE INDIVIDUAL MODEL TRACKS…THE CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
SINCE TRACK FORECASTS ARE ALWAYS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS AT 3-5 DAYS…AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NOTABLE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO…IT IS SIMPLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.
IN FACT…TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK…INTENSITY…AND SIZE FORECASTS…THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST WESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF LOUISIANA.
GUSTAV FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/2100Z 18.1N 76.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 18.4N 77.8W 55 KT…INLAND OVER JAMAICA
24HR VT 29/1800Z 19.1N 79.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 20.1N 81.7W 80 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 21.5N 83.6W 95 KT
72HR VT 31/1800Z 25.0N 87.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 28.0N 89.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 02/1800Z 30.0N 91.5W 85 KT…INLAND
August 28th, 2008 at 10:54 pm
Hurricane Gustav Latest Forecast - National Hurricane Center
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
THE CENTER OF GUSTAV HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA DURING THE EVENING.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE KINGSTON AREA SHOWED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE…AND THE LOWEST OBSERVED PRESSURE WAS 990 MB.
GUSTAV IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER…WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/6…AFTER A SOUTH OF WEST MOTION FOR A FEW HOURS.
GUSTAV IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FORECASTS GUSTAV TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR…THEN CONTINUE IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 96 HR.
THE GUIDANCE IS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AFTER 96 HR…THERE IS SOME SPREAD…AS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON WHETHER A RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF GUSTAV.
THE GFDL MOVES THE STORM QUICKLY INLAND…WHILE THE LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS IT SLOWING DOWN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
THE NOGAPS CALLS FOR A LEFT TURN AFTER 96 HR TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THAT IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AFTER 72 HR….WITH RELIABLE MODEL FORECASTS REMAINING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TRACK.
SINCE TRACK FORECASTS ARE ALWAYS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS AT 3-5 DAYS…IT IS SIMPLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.
GUSTAV IS SHOWING GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS AT THIS TIME…BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS…WHICH WOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO RETREAT WESTWARD AS GUSTAV APPROACHES…WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.
HOWEVER…THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW MUCH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE…WITH THE UKMET IN PARTICULAR SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHEAR AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 99 KT…THE LGEM MODEL 94 KT…THE GFDL 111 KT…AND THE HWRF 137 KT.
THE LATTER IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.
HOWEVER…IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5 HURRICANE BY 72 HR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0300Z 17.8N 77.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 18.3N 78.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 19.1N 80.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 20.4N 82.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 21.9N 84.2W 100 KT…NEAR COAST OF CUBA
72HR VT 01/0000Z 25.5N 87.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 28.5N 90.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 30.0N 92.5W 90 KT…INLAND
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August 29th, 2008 at 8:27 am
Gustav Projected Path - National Hurricane Center Models
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS AN EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD AND IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE STORM’S CIRCULATION FOUND THAT THE SIZE OF GUSTAV HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED.
ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO SAMPLE THE CENTER…PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KT WERE OBSERVED…ALONG WITH SIMILAR VALUES FOR THE SFMR.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7.
THERE IS A COMPLICATED EVOLUTION TO THE STEERING CURRENTS AROUND GUSTAV DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA THAT HAS BEEN STEERING THE STORM WESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY.
THE BERMUDA HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CAUSE GUSTAV TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
ONE BIG QUESTION IS THE EVOLUTION OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
SOME OF THE MODELS…SUCH AS THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF…ARE SHOWING THIS LOW CREATING ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE BERMUDA HIGH TO ALLOW A MOTION MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES CUBA.
IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THAT TRACK BRIEFLY OCCURRED…BUT IN THE LONGER-TERM…A HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY BEND TO THE LEFT.
HOWEVER…THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE BEND.
THE UKMET AND GFS HAVE HAD LARGE CHANGES TO THEIR FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS…AND GIVEN THE INCREASING MODEL SPREAD…WE’VE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
HOPEFULLY A G-IV MISSION LATER TODAY WILL HELP RESOLVE SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES.
AFTER THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM JAMAICA…SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS…COULD PRODUCE A STRONG HURRICANE VERY QUICKLY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN CUBA AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AS SOME MODELS SHOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AT THAT TIME.
A LARGE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS TROUGH MAY IMPART SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON GUSTAV AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO THE SHEAR…GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0900Z 18.1N 78.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 18.6N 79.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 19.6N 81.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 21.0N 82.8W 90 KT
48HR VT 31/0600Z 22.7N 84.6W 100 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 26.4N 88.1W 110 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 29.0N 91.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 30.0N 93.0W 85 KT…INLAND
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August 29th, 2008 at 10:48 am
Hurricane Gustav - Latest NHC Computer Models
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008
SINCE THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX OVER WESTERN JAMAICA AT ABOUT 1100 UTC…WHICH INCLUDED A CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 988 MB…GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT GUSTAV IS REGAINING ORGANIZATION NOW THAT ITS CENTER HAS EMERGED OVER WATER WEST OF JAMAICA.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 55 KT UNTIL WE RECEIVE NEW DATA FROM THE NEXT AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON…ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV IS ALREADY A LITTLE STRONGER.
THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE MORE THAN 24 HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE…SO STRENGTHENING SEEMS IMMINENT AND COULD EVEN BE RAPID.
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A 28 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SINCE THERE IS ABOUT 36 HOURS LEFT BEFORE GUSTAV CROSSES CUBA…THERE REMAINS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THAT ISLAND.
CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEAR TO SUPPORT A MAJOR HURRICANE AS WELL…ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE A LITTLE.
THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
GUSTAV IS MOVING AT ABOUT 295/7 BUT IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING TO THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH…AND IS HEADED FOR A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PATH OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA IN ROUGHLY 36 HOURS…FOLLOWED BY A TRACK INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
THEREAFTER…THE MODELS DIVERGE TREMENDOUSLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE HIGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MODELS THAT SHOW A SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES HIGH…WHILE THOSE THAT ARE FASTER AND STRAIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOW LESS OF THAT RIDGING.
THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS…GIVING RESPECT TO THE NWS MODELS GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF…WHICH ALSO SEEM TO DEPICT A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SYSTEM THAT WE EXPECT GUSTAV TO BE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY…DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN…AND FINAL LANDFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/1500Z 18.6N 78.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 19.3N 80.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 20.8N 81.8W 80 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 22.6N 83.8W 95 KT…OVER WESTERN CUBA
48HR VT 31/1200Z 24.3N 85.7W 105 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 27.5N 89.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 29.5N 91.0W 100 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 03/1200Z 31.0N 93.0W 60 KT…INLAND
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August 29th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
Hurricane Gustav Projected Path Computer Models
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008
VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS OCCASIONALLY REVEALED AN EYE TRYING TO FORM…BUT THAT FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN PERSISTENT.
NEVERTHELESS…THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION…WITH SOLID CONVECTIVE BANDS AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW THAT IS WELL-DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS.
THE UNDERLYING WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE QUITE WARM…AND TO SOME DEPTH BENEATH THE SURFACE…SO THERE ARE NO APPARENT IMPEDIMENTS TO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE GUSTAV REACHES WESTERN CUBA.
EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE…AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SHIPS-BASED RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX THAT SHOWS A 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO CROSSING WESTERN CUBA.
PASSAGE OVER CUBA WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE STORM’S STRENGTH…AND ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A STRENGTHENING TREND OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF…WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE GULF…AND DESPITE THE WEAKENING IMPLIED BY THE LESSER INTENSITY OVER LAND AT 96 HOURS…GUSTAV COULD MAKE FINAL LANDFALL ALONG SOME PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
GUSTAV HAS TURNED MORE TO THE RIGHT AND SPED UP A LITTLE…NOW MOVING AT ABOUT 305/10…AS IT HEADS FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE PORTION OF THAT RIDGE THAT IS INTACT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEP-LAYER HIGH THAT WILL REACH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN A FEW DAYS.
THERE ARE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE COMPUTER MODELS…HOWEVER…IN HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THAT HIGH TOWARD TEXAS…AND IN HOW STRONG THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GULF IN A FEW DAYS.
THESE VARYING SOLUTIONS LEAD TO DIFFERENT TRACKS FOR GUSTAV OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
COMPUTER MODELS WITH THE RIDGE EXTENSION AND A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF GUSTAV…SUCH AS THE NOGAPS AND UKMET…FORECAST GUSTAV TO TURN WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS.
OTHERS INCLUDING THE GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF…DO NOT SHOW THE RIDGE EXTENSION NOR A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH…AND FORECAST GUSTAV TO BE PULLED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FARTHER EAST.
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTIONS AND IS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS…AND REPRESENTS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
DUE TO THE NOTABLE MODEL SPREAD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…IT IS ONCE AGAIN IMPORTANT TO RESTATE THAT IT IS SIMPLY NOT YET POSSIBLE TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.
HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 19.2N 79.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 20.1N 80.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 21.7N 82.8W 90 KT…OVER ISLE OF YOUTH
36HR VT 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.8W 100 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 25.2N 86.8W 110 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 28.0N 90.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 30.5N 92.5W 85 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 03/1800Z 32.0N 94.0W 55 KT…INLAND
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August 29th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
Hurricane Gustav Projected Path - Latest Update
This Hurricane Katrina track shows that predicting exactly where Gustav will hit is still really hard to do at this point.
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS A 25 NM WIDE EYE THAT IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.
RECENT TRMM AND SSM/I IMAGERY ALONG WITH CUBAN RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 N MI IS FORMING…AND THE NOAA PLANE REPORTED 88 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 770 MB IN THE CORRESPONDING OUTER WIND MAXIMUM.
RELIABLE-LOOKING DATA FROM THE SFMR SHOWS 65-70 KT SURFACE WINDS IN BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER WIND MAXIMA…BUT THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AIRCRAFT DATA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9.
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE…WITH GUSTAV EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE…WITH SOME CONTINUING DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF GUSTAV AND HOW GUSTAV WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HR AND THEN SHOWS SOME SPREAD.
THE GFDL REMAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA…WHILE THE UKMET CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN AND LANDFALL ON THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR…THEN IS SLOWER AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER. IT LIES IN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.
WHILE GUSTAV HAS GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS…WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW.
THIS…COMBINED WITH THE CONCENTRIC WIND MAXIMA…MAY BE SLOWING INTENSIFICATION.
GUSTAV IS OVER WARM WATER WITH HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT…AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER SUCH WATER UNTIL IS PASSES NORTH OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN 48-60 HR.
THUS…THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF THE STORM STRUCTURE AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH PERMIT.
THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 104 KT…THE LGEM 97 KT…THE HWRF 114 KT…THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE 114 KT…AND THE GFDL 129 KT.
BASED ON THIS AND THE PREMISE THAT THE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW STEADY STRENGTHENING…THE FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT.
GUSTAV COULD GET STRONGER THAN THAT IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 72 HR AS GUSTAV REACHES LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND POSSIBLE ENCOUNTERS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR.
HOWEVER…GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
THE FINAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES… WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE INTENSITY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0300Z 19.5N 80.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 20.6N 81.8W 85 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 22.3N 83.7W 100 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 31/1200Z 24.0N 85.6W 105 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 25.7N 87.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 28.5N 90.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 30.5N 93.0W 80 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 04/0000Z 31.5N 94.0W 45 KT…INLAND
(note: The GFDL forecast model has historically been the most accurate and that’s the computer model calling for the strongest winds.)
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August 30th, 2008 at 9:08 am
Hurricane Gustav Track - Latest Update
Gustav’s winds now top 120 mph and the storm is expected to remain a major hurricane at landfall.
Hurricane Gustav’s projected path predicts landfall on the Louisiana coast, but the biggest problem is that Gustav is expected to stall inland over Louisiana and Texas, with NHC forecast predictions of the huge storm producing torrential rain and major flooding.
Coastal storm surge of 10 to 14 feet is predicted for parts of Louisiana.
Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulation of 12 to 16 inches in Louisiana and Texas with isolated amounts of up to 25 inches possible.
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HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
GUSTAV HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN EYE IS BECOMING VISIBLE AND DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE IS NOW VERY INTENSE.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS DOWN TO 965 MB…A DROP OF ABOUT 24 MB IN 24 HOURS.
THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE CREW WERE 100 KT AROUND 6Z… CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 90 KT AT THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE…THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY TO 95 KT.
OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER AND THE NEXT AIRCRAFT PASS THROUGH GUSTAV COULD FIND A MAJOR HURRICANE.
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE EXTREMELY WARM AND DEEP WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER…BY 48 HOURS…ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV.
IN ADDITION…SINCE THE LOOP CURRENT IS SOUTH OF ITS TYPICAL LOCATION…THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS THAT ARE NOT NEARLY AS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS THEY COULD BE.
THESE TWO FACTORS WILL HOPEFULLY WEAKEN THE STORM PRIOR TO U.S. LANDFALL.
HOWEVER…GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AND THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO NORTHERN FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING THE HURRICANE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREAFTER…A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL LEFTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET/HWRF…WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE.
THESE TWO MODELS ARE SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE…WHICH ALLOWS A RIDGE TO FORM OVER TEXAS TO TURN THE STORM.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
GUSTAV WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LONGER-TERM…WHICH COULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE FLOODING THREAT OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS.
HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0900Z 20.2N 81.3W 95 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 21.2N 82.7W 105 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 22.9N 84.6W 110 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 24.6N 86.4W 115 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 26.5N 88.3W 110 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 29.5N 91.5W 100 KT…NEAR LOUISIANA COAST
96HR VT 03/0600Z 30.5N 93.0W 70 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 04/0600Z 31.0N 94.0W 35 KT…INLAND
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August 30th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Hurricane Gustav Computer Models - Latest Update
National Hurricane Center computer models are now in extremely close agreement on Gustav’s projected path.
Landfall prediction has moved further west of the New Orleans area toward the Louisiana Texas border.
Gustav’s predicted winds will top 140 mph and the storm is not expected to weaken much over the Gulf of Mexico.
Gustav will remain a major hurricane at landfall, possibly even a Category 4. A decrease in forward speed is projected in the last 12 hours before landfall, which means Gustav could curve further West at the last minute.
Coastal storm surge of 10 to 14 feet is predicted for the Gulf Coast region of Louisiana.
Flooding will be a major problem as Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulation of 12 to 16 inches in Louisiana and Texas, with isolated amounts of up to 25 inches possible.
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HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH…205 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS GUSTAV PASSES NEAR AND OVER WESTERN CUBA.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER GUSTAV REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES…260 KM.
AFTER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT…THE STRENGTHENING RATE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED A LITTLE…ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON HAS CONTINUED TO FALL THIS MORNING…WITH THE MOST RECENT VALUE DOWN TO 954 MB.
THE BRIEF TIME GUSTAV WILL SPEND OVER WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO SHOULD NOT WEAKEN THE HURRICANE MUCH…AND ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING…ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WHERE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS GREATEST.
THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS A LITTLE HIGHER AT 120 KT…VERY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.
DESPITE THE IMPLIED WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS DUE TO FORECAST LANDFALL…NO DRAMATIC WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE GUSTAV REMAINS OVER THE GULF…AND IT COULD REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
GUSTAV JOGGED NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS…AND IT IS NOT YET CLEAR IF IT HAS RESUMED A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING…BUT THE LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD OR 320/12.
THE STEERING CURRENTS PUSHING GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD ARE GENERALLY WELL-DEFINED AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AS THE HURRICANE MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
BEYOND 48 HOURS…MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS A STRONG BUT DISTANT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.
NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED THEIR TRACK SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE…SO THE CONSENSUS HAS REMAINED IN PLACE.
THE SPREAD AT 3-5 DAYS IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL…HOWEVER…WITH SOME MODELS INCLUDING THE UKMET AND HWRF CALLING FOR GUSTAV TO TURN WESTWARD JUST BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IN TAKING GUSTAV INLAND IN LESS THAN 72 HOURS…AND IS JUST EDGED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT…IN PART TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT RIGHT OF TRACK MOTION.
REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS IN THE TRACK…GUSTAV WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LONGER-TERM…WHICH COULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE FLOODING THREAT OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS.
HURRICANE DUSTAV FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 21.2N 82.1W 110 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 22.5N 83.5W 105 KT…OVER WESTERN CUBA
24HR VT 31/1200Z 24.3N 85.4W 115 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.3W 120 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 27.8N 89.2W 110 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 30.5N 92.5W 65 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 03/1200Z 31.5N 94.0W 35 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.5W 30 KT…INLAND
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August 30th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
Category 5 Hurricane Gustav Rips Cuba With 150 MPH Winds
Powerful Hurricane Gustav is just shredding western Cuba with immensely powerful winds and torrential rain.
In addition, the storm is moving Northward much faster than anticipated and will reach the Gulf Coast much sooner than anticipated.
A hurricane watch has been issued rom High Island texas all the way to the Florida Panhandle.
Gustav will make landfall as a Category 4 hurricane, most likely just west of Lake Pontchartrain, but the exact location dpends on how fast Gustav makes the journey across the Gulf of mexico.
Irrgeardless, New Orleans is toast, with flooding way worse than Hurricane Katrina becuase Gustav is projected to stall over Louisiana and Texas and dump rain for several days.
All of the main rivers in that area eventually drain into the Mississipi River which will already be overflowing it’s banks just from the local rainfall.
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HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER…INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF GUSTAV HAD BEEN HUGGING THE EASTERN COAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON…BUT IS NOW OVER WATER IN BETWEEN THAT ISLAND AND MAINLAND WESTERN CUBA.
AIRCRAFT FIXES CONTINUE TO COME IN JUST ABOUT RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS GUSTAV HAS BEEN WOBBLING SLIGHTLY…BUT THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS RELATIVELY WELL-ESTABLISHED AT 315/13…WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE VARIOUS MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRACK INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE HWRF…UKMET…AND NOGAPS…WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST A STALL JUST OFFSHORE…HAVE COME INTO THE FOLD WITH THE GFS…GFDL…AND ECMWF…RESULTING IN A CONSENSUS TRACK THAT FALLS VERY CLOSE TO THE PATH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THIS AGREEMENT HAS ALSO RESULTED…HOWEVER…IN A CONSENSUS TRACK THAT REACHES THE COAST A LITTLE FASTER.
THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALMOST EXACTLY ALONG THE PATH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…BUT MAINTAINS THE CURRENT HEADING AND SPEED ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST…ARRIVING THERE A LITTLE SOONER THAN BEFORE.
WHILE THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS…THE MODEL SPREAD IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO SERVE AS A REMINDER THAT WE CANNOT SPECIFY EXACTLY WHERE OR WHEN THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.
AFTER LANDFALL…ALL OF THE MODELS RESPOND TO WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS…WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES…BY FORECASTING A DRAMATIC SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED OVER LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS…AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN FOLLOWS SUIT.
THE RECON CENTRAL PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO STEADILY FALL…WITH THE MOST RECENT VALUE BEING 942 MB.
A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 143 KT AT 700 MB WAS JUST REPORTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL…WHICH SUPPORTS INCREASING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY TO 130 KT.
MODEST ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD LEAD TO CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY AS GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA…BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY CALL FOR CATEGORY FIVE STATUS UNTIL 24 HOURS.
AFTER DEPARTING CUBA…THE HURRICANE WILL PASS OVER THE WARM LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO…AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME PROHIBITIVELY STRONG DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE ALL THE WAY TO FINAL LANDFALL.
THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND ALSO NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFDL AND HWRF.
THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES…INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE IN BOTH TEXT AND GRAPHICAL FORMATS…DEPICT A RELATIVELY SIMILAR RISK OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS ALONG A WIDE STRETCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
GIVEN THAT THESE VALUES ARE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH…AND CONSIDERING THE SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK TOWARD THE COAST…IT IS TIME TO ISSUE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 22.1N 82.9W 130 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.4W 135 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 25.3N 86.5W 140 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 27.2N 88.6W 135 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 93.0W 70 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 03/1800Z 32.0N 94.5W 35 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 04/1800Z 32.0N 96.0W 30 KT…INLAND
August 30th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
Hurricane Gustav Tracking - Latest Projected Path
Hurricane Gustav is on it’s way toward Louisiana after hitting Cuba with a storm surge 19 to 23 feeet above normal tide levels.
Expected rainfall amunts in parts of Texas and Louisiana will top 30 inches as Gustav is forecast to stall inland about 12 hours after making landfall.
Gustav will become a Category 5 hurricane on Sunday with massive destructive reach, including hurricane force winds acrosss a 400-mile wide projected path.
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HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
…GUSTAV MAKES LANDFALL IN WESTERN MAINLAND CUBA…
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER…INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 800 PM EDT…0000Z…THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST.
THIS POSITION IS OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR LOS PALACIOS AND ABOUT 65 MILES…105 KM…WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA.
DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE EYE…SINCE WINDS WILL SOON RAPIDLY INCREASE AS EYEWALL AGAIN PASSES.
THE EYE IS ALSO CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 570 MILES…915 KM…SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/HR…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS…AND REACH THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH…240 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
THERE ARE UNOFFICIAL REPORTS FROM PINAR DEL RIO PROVINCE OF WINDS NEAR THESE ESTIMATES.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND GUSTAV COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY DURING THIS PERIOD.
GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AS GUSTAV WAS MAKING LANDFALL WAS 941 MB…27.79 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…IS POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA…INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION…22.7 N…83.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…941 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
August 30th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
Hurricane Gustav Weather - Latest Forecast Update
Powerful Hurricane Gustav has crossed Cuba and is in the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico
Gustav’s expected to intensify rapidly over the Gulf and make landfall in Louisiana as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
A storm surge of 16 to 24 feet is projected for southeastern Louisiana along with 10 inches of rain on Monday with more rain Tuesday and Wednesday as Hurricane Gustav stalls about 100 to 150 miles inland.
Massive flooding is expected throughout Louisiana, northeast Texas, and Arkansas as three days of torrential rain will overflow every river bank between high ground and the Gulf.
It is highly doubtful that the New Orleans levee system can hold up to that amount of rainfall all draining through the Mississipi River basin.
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HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
AT 1100 PM EDT…0300Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 90 MILES…145 KM…WEST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 530 MILES…850 KM…SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/HR…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY…AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH…220 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
WHILE GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED DURING PASSAGE OVER CUBA…IT IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY AFTER THAT TIME…BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB…27.99 INCHES.
THE EYE OF GUSTAV CROSSED WESTERN CUBA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IS NOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE HURRICANE WEAKENED DURING PASSAGE OVER LAND…WITH THE EYE BECOMING CLOUD FILLED AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTION BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA.
IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 120 KT.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE STORM ABOUT 06Z TO DETERMINE THE ACTUAL INTENSITY.
THE MOTION HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN 315 AND 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT…WITH 320/13 USED IN THIS PACKAGE.
THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING…WITH GUSTAV BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES…AND THEN BY AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HR…CALLING FOR GUSTAV TO TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN OR SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO IS LIES JUST TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
AFTER LANDFALL…THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF GUSTAV…WITH A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.
THE TRACK FORECAST AT THAT TIME CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z UKMET FORECASTS GUSTAV TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE LOUISIANA COAST…WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED DESPITE ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CAUSED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE PRESENCE OF THIS SHEAR IS SUPPORTED BY RADAR DATA FROM THE KEY WEST WSR-88D…WHICH CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAK SOUTHERN EYEWALL AND LITTLE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE EYEWALL.
THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH SOME DURING THE NEXT 18 HR…THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS GUSTAV MOVES BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ON THE OCEAN SIDE…GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE LOOP CURRENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…THEN POSSIBLY PASS OVER A COUPLE OF COLD EDDIES NORTH OF 26N.
ALL GUIDANCE FORECAST RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR…SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 135 KT IN 24 HR…FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO SHEAR AND LOWER HEAT CONTENT…THEN FASTER WEAKENING OVER LAND.
DUE TO THE VARIOUS FACTORS…THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST.
HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0300Z 23.1N 83.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 24.6N 85.3W 130 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 26.5N 87.4W 135 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 28.3N 89.5W 130 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 29.8N 91.2W 120 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 03/0000Z 31.5N 93.0W 50 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 04/0000Z 32.5N 94.5W 30 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 05/0000Z 32.5N 96.0W 25 KT…INLAND
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August 31st, 2008 at 9:14 am
Hurricane Gustav Tracking - Latest Projected Path
Gustav will make landfall near New Orleans as a Category 4 hurricane with winds of at least 125 mph, the same as Hurricane Katrina had making landfall on August 29, 2005.
Hurricane Gustav will do much more damage than Katrina though because the storm surge is expected to be even higher than Katrina’s storm surge.
Even worse, Gustav will linger in the Loiusiana - Texas - Arkansas - Mississippi skies, dumping massive amounts of rain as the huge storm stalls about 150 miles inland.
That means inland portions of Gustav’s projected path will get as much as 30 inches of rain Monday and Tuesday.
Here’s a satellite photo of Gustav filling the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico Sunday morning.
***********************************
National Hurricane Center - Latest Computer Models
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
APPARENTLY…THE INTERACTION WITH WESTERN CUBA TOOK MORE OF A TOLL ON THE HURRICANE THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED.
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 112 KT…SFMR WINDS OF 98 KT…AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 958 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRM THIS WEAKENING TREND AS THE EYE NO LONGER VISIBLE.
AIRCRAFT AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS EXPANDED TO AROUND 25 N MI IN DIAMETER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KT…AND GUSTAV MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WEAKER FOR THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER THIS WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE HURRICANE TRAVERSES THE RELATIVELY HIGH HEAT CONTENT OF THE GULF LOOP CURRENT.
BEYOND 24 HOURS…THE HEAT CONTENT DECREASES AND MOST MODELS INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
IN ADDITION…NONE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING OF GUSTAV…ALTHOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE SKILL OF THESE MODELS IS RATHER LOW.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE EARLIER ONE…BUT STILL SHOWS GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.
BASED UPON AIRCRAFT DATA AND RADAR FIXES FROM KEY WEST…GUSTAV IS MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHWEST AND ITS MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 320/14.
THE LARGE-SCALE STEERING PATTERN APPEARS TO BE WELL-DEFINED…WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES PROVIDING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO THE HURRICANE.
A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT IS ANTICIPATED AS GUSTAV NEARS THE COAST DUE TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL TRACK FORECAST BUT CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN FORWARD SPEED.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST…AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.
IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF GUSTAV AS THIS IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
BASED ON THIS FORECAST…IT IS NOW TIME TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0900Z 24.2N 85.0W 110 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 25.6N 86.3W 120 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 27.5N 88.4W 125 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 29.1N 90.4W 115 KT…NEAR COAST
48HR VT 02/0600Z 30.5N 92.2W 75 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 03/0600Z 31.7N 93.7W 30 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 04/0600Z 32.0N 94.5W 25 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 05/0600Z 32.0N 95.5W 20 KT…INLAND
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August 31st, 2008 at 11:00 am
Hurricane Gustav Latest Projected Path
Gustav will make landfall well west of New Orleans, most likely as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph, the same as Hurricane Katrina had when making landfall on August 29, 2005.
The latest update from the National Hurricane Center shifts the track west and then shows Gustav curling down over Texas after moving inland for eight hours.
This change could mean torrential rains and flooding for areas like Houston Texas, similar to the flooding caused by slow moving Hurricane Fay in Florida earlier this month.
***********************************
National Hurricane Center - Latest Update
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
GUSTAV CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN SATELLITE APPEARANCE THIS MORNING.
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY ASYMMETRIC…WITH THE COLD TOPS DUE MAINLY TO ONE HOT TOWER IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL.
WHILE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS APPARENT…IT IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED CENTER.
THE LATEST REPORT FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 962 MB…ALONG WITH AN ELLIPTICAL 30 BY 20 N MI WIDE EYE OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT…AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/15.
THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK…WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE NEW GUIDANCE RUNS SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SHIFT YET…AND THUS LIES NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HR.
AFTER 48-72 HR…THERE IS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES…STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS…OR TURN SOUTHWESTWARD.
SINCE THIS KIND OF SPREAD FREQUENTLY PRECEDES SLOW MOTION…THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR.
AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD…THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS THAT GUSTAV REMAINS IN 15 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR….AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL LANDFALL.
THAT…COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT RAGGED STORM STRUCTURE AND THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY…SUGGESTS ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW.
ADDITIONALLY..GUSTAV IS OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE LOOP CURRENT NOW…AND SHOULD PASS OVER WATERS WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL.
THE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE FACTORS BY FORECASTING MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HR…WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KT AND THE OTHER MODELS ABOUT 110 KT.
BASED ON THIS…THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR GUSTAV TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 115 KT IN 12 TO 24 HR…AND MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
GUSTAV SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.
HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/1500Z 25.3N 86.0W 105 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 27.0N 87.7W 115 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 28.6N 89.7W 115 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 30.0N 91.5W 85 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 02/1200Z 31.1N 93.0W 50 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 03/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W 30 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.0W 25 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 05/1200Z 32.0N 95.9W 20 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW
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August 31st, 2008 at 4:25 pm
National Hurricane Center - Hurricane Gustav Latest Update
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SUGGESTS THAT GUSTAV IS GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED…WITH A HINT OF AN EYE RETURNING.
ADDITIONALLY…THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS FALLEN TO 957 MB.
ON THE OTHER HAND…THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 105 KT WHILE THE MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS WERE 93 KT.
ALSO…THE CONVECTION…WHILE VIGOROUS…IS STILL RATHER ASYMMETRIC AROUND THE 30 NM WIDE EYE THAT IS OPEN TO THE SE.
BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 315 AND 320 DEGREES AT 15-16 KT…WITH 320/16 BEING THE ADVISORY MOTION.
THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY…WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE NEW GUIDANCE RUNS…MOST NOTABLY THE HWRF…SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK…AND SINCE IT LIES NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SOME ADDITIONAL SMALL SHIFTS MAY BE NECESSARY LATER.
AFTER 48-72 HR…THERE REMAINS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES…SHEAR APART AND STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS…OR TURN SOUTHWESTWARD.
THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR FOLLOWS THE SHEAR-APART-AND-STALL SCENARIO…CALLING FOR GUSTAV TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS OVER LAND.
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT GUSTAV REMAINS IN ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR…WITH A LOT OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE.
THE EYE HAS MOVED NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP WARM WATER OF THE LOOP CURRENT…AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED SHEAR REDUCES THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS NO STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL…WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST ABOUT 10 KT OF STRENGTHENING.
GIVEN THE FALLING PRESSURES AND THE COLD CONVECTION…THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 110 KT BEFORE LANDFALL…WITH GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
GUSTAV SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 120 HR.
HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/2100Z 26.4N 87.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 27.9N 88.9W 110 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 29.4N 90.9W 100 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 02/0600Z 30.7N 92.7W 60 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 02/1800Z 31.5N 93.9W 35 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 03/1800Z 32.0N 95.0W 30 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 04/1800Z 32.0N 96.0W 25 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 05/1800Z 32.0N 96.5W 20 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW
August 31st, 2008 at 10:17 pm
Hurricane Gustav Latest Projected Path Update
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GUSTAV BECAME MORE SYMMETRIC EARLIER IN THE EVENING AND WAS GIVING THE IMPRESSION OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION.
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO…HOWEVER…THERE HAS BEEN SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CORE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE…WHICH HAD BEEN FALLING…SEEMS TO HAVE STABILIZED WITH THE MOST RECENT ESTIMATE BEING 954 MB.
FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 100 KT…WITH A PEAK SMFR WIND OF 100 KT JUST OBSERVED A FEW MINUTES AGO…AND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 114 KT.
THE SFMR DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED…SPREADING OUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER A LARGER AREA.
DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT ALSO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR BETWEEN 300 AND 500 MB WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE CENTER OF GUSTAV FROM THE SOUTH.
THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY OF GUSTAV WILL LIKELY BE NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM ITS CURRENT CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH.
NONE OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS…THE GFDL…HWRF…SHIPS…AND LGEM SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN THE REMAINING TIME GUSTAV HAS OVER WATER.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/14.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THAT SHOWS GUSTAV MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE NEW FORECAST IS JUST ABOUT RIGHT ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
AFTER THAT…AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE…THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY.
AS BEFORE…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE MOTION AFTER 72 HOURS IN THE EXPECTATION THAT GUSTAV WILL SHEAR OFF…IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM.
HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 27.3N 88.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 28.6N 89.9W 105 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 30.1N 91.9W 85 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 02/1200Z 31.1N 93.3W 50 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 03/0000Z 31.8N 94.3W 30 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 04/0000Z 32.0N 95.0W 25 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 05/0000Z 32.0N 95.5W 25 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 06/0000Z 32.0N 96.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
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August 31st, 2008 at 10:42 pm
Hurricane Gustav Landfall
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
HURRICANE GUSTAV CLOSING IN ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…
AT 1000 PM CDT…0300Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES…360 KM…SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 310 MILES…500 KM…SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA.
THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 180 MILES…285 KM…SOUTHEAST OF PORT FOURCHON ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/HR…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WOULD REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW.
A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH…185 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES…350 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA WAS 954 MB…28.17 INCHES.
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE COAST.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI…ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASERN TEXAS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION…27.3 N…88.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…954 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.
September 1st, 2008 at 7:52 am
Gustav Landfall
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT GUSTAV IS NOT STRENGTHENING. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY AND…BASED ON RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WIND MEASUREMENTS…100 KT IS A GENEROUS ESTIMATE FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.
WSR-88D RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE WALL IS OPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE…PERHAPS DUE TO THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTH THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLIER.
IN FACT…THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS DID NOT REPORT AN EYEWALL.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS A DRY INTRUSION AND A RESTRICTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE.
ALSO THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A BIT MORE RAGGED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE PICTURES.
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST…NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN STRENGTH APPEARS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
GUSTAV CONTINUES MOVING BRISKLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST…315/14.
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE/HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE HIGH WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEREFORE GUSTAV’S FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY TO SLOW LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW…I.E. AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND.
THE STEERING PATTERN BECOMES ILL-DEFINED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE TRACK MODELS BECOME HIGHLY DIVERGENT.
IF GUSTAV REMAINED A VERTICALLY-COHERENT CYCLONE IT WOULD PROBABLY RESPOND TO AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
HOWEVER IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL PART OF GUSTAV WILL BE SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST…LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND IN THE EAST TEXAS AREA.
THAT IS BASICALLY WHAT WE ARE INDICATING IN THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WHICH SHOWS GUSTAV OR ITS REMNANTS SLOWING TO A CRAWL IN DAYS 3 TO 5.
SUCH SLOW MOTION WOULD EXACERBATE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND INLAND FLOODING.
HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0900Z 28.4N 89.5W 100 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 29.5N 91.1W 100 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 02/0600Z 30.7N 92.8W 55 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 02/1800Z 31.4N 93.9W 35 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 03/0600Z 31.8N 94.7W 25 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 04/0600Z 32.0N 95.5W 20 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 05/0600Z 32.0N 96.0W 20 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 06/0600Z 32.0N 96.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
September 1st, 2008 at 10:55 am
Hurricane Gustav Landfall - Gustav Path Update
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR COCODRIE ABOUT 1430 UTC.
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS…THE EYE BECAME BETTER DEFINED ON RADAR.
HOWEVER…WIND DATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT ALONG WITH DOPPLER RADAR WINDS SUGGESTS THAT GUSTAV WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA…AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/13.
GUSTAV IS BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR.
AFTER THAT TIME…THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION…SO THE 72-120 HR PART OF THE TRACK IS CHANGED FROM A WESTWARD DRIFT TO A NORTHWARD DRIFT.
GUSTAV SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND…ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING WILL LIKELY BE SLOW AT FIRST AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE SOUTH LOUISIANA MARSHES.
A FASTER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN 6-12 HR AS THE CENTER REACHES MORE SOLID GROUND.
AFTER 48 HR…GUSTAV IS LIKELY TO SHEAR APART…WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL PORTION OF THE CYCLONE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND LEAVING THE SURFACE CENTER BEHIND.
THUS…THE FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HR.
THE THREAT OF HIGH STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS…AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
GUSTAV FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 29.2N 90.8W 95 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 30.3N 92.4W 70 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 02/1200Z 31.3N 93.8W 40 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 03/0000Z 31.9N 94.6W 30 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 03/1200Z 32.4N 95.3W 25 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 04/1200Z 33.0N 95.5W 20 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 05/1200Z 33.5N 95.5W 20 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 06/1200Z 34.0N 95.5W 20 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW