Tropical Storm Hanna - Computer models of projected path of Tropical Storm Hanna 2008 and latest storm track maps from the National Hurricane Center.
The latest predicted path map for TS Hanna 2008 is posted below.
Spaghetti models below show possible Tropical Storm Hanna track.
Latest computer models for Tropical Storm Hanna track tropical winds:
The forecasted long-range track of Tropical Storm Hanna places the storm along the East Coast anywhere from Florida to the Carolinas as a major hurricane.
National Hurricane Center - Hanna Projected Path
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ALOFT…RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR.
A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL…AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 3 DAYS.
THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE…PREDICTING AN INTENSE HURRICANE.
HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0900Z 19.8N 57.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 58.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 22.0N 60.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 23.5N 62.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 25.0N 64.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 26.0N 67.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 27.0N 69.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 27.0N 70.5W 75 KT
And that’s the NHC latest update on Tropical Storm Hanna.
Tags: hurricane, hurricane hanna, hurricane hannah, national hurricane center, tropical depression 8, tropical storm hanna, tropical storm hannah
August 28th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Hanna 2008 - Latest Update
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 35 KT.
BASED ON THIS INFORMATION…THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM HANNA.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT HANNA’S LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION INDICATING WESTERLY SHEAR…ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST IS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM.
SINCE THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM…THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PRIMARILY A FUNCTION OF HOW HANNA INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PLACING HANNA IN A LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH AMPLE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.
SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT WOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION SHOULD IT MATERIALIZE.
HOWEVER…AS IS OFTEN THE CASE…THERE IS A FINE LINE BETWEEN A FAVORABLE AND UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SPACING BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND HANNA TO PROMOTE STRENGTHENING.
BY DAY 5…UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV COULD IMPART NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE INTENSITY.
HANNA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST…OR 300/10…DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS.
HOWEVER…A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS HANNA MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THEREAFTER…THE TRACK BECOMES MUCH LESS CERTAIN AS IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW HANNA WILL INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW HANNA BEING LEFT BEHIND IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING.
HOWEVER…THE TRADITIONALLY GOOD PERFORMING GFS FORECASTS HANNA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE FORMER OF THOSE SCENARIOS AND SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK.
AUGUST 28, 2008 HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.5N 59.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.4N 60.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 22.8N 61.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 24.4N 63.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 25.7N 65.6W 60 KT
72HR VT 31/1200Z 27.0N 68.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 01/1200Z 27.5N 70.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 02/1200Z 27.5N 71.5W 70 KT
August 28th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
Hurricane Hanna 2008 - Latest Projected Path
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
AFTER LOOKING QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING…VERTICAL SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON HANNA AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME COMPLETELY EXPOSED.
WHILE IT IS TEMPTING TO LOWER THE INTENSITY BASED ON THIS TREND…IT IS BEST TO KEEP HANNA AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION NOTWITHSTANDING…THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED.
DYNAMICAL MODELS INSISTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IMPARTING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD ALLOWING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING TO DEVELOP OVER THE CYCLONE.
SIMILARLY…THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE BASING THEIR FORECAST ON A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS NOT BUDGED ALL DAY SO IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT RELAX IN THE SHORT-TERM.
THIS IS THE BASIS FOR THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS BELOW THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
IF THE UPPER-LOW DOES EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT OF HANNA’S WAY…ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING. BY DAY 5…UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV COULD IMPART NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE INTENSITY.
HANNA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD…OR 300/10.
HOWEVER…A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS HANNA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOMES A DEEPER SYSTEM.
THEREAFTER…THE TRACK FORECAST IS RIDDLED WITH UNCERTAINTY AS IT IS UNCLEAR HOW HANNA WILL INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH BYPASSING HANNA TO THE NORTH AND LEAVING IT BEHIND IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING. SUCH AN EVOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN ERRATIC OR LITTLE OVERALL MOTION.
ACCORDINGLY…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
IT SHOULD BE ADDED THAT THERE IS LARGER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS OF HANNA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/2100Z 20.7N 60.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 21.7N 61.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 23.4N 63.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 24.9N 65.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 25.9N 67.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 31/1800Z 27.0N 69.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 27.5N 70.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 02/1800Z 27.5N 71.5W 65 KT
August 28th, 2008 at 11:10 pm
Hurricane Hanna Latest Update - National Hurricane Center
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
AFTER WESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR PRODUCED AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER…CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED WITH A VENGEANCE OVER OR NEAR THE CENTER CONTAINING CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -83C.
HOWEVER…THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE A BURSTING PATTERN…WHICH IS USUALLY SHORT-LIVED.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS 45 KT BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND THE CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SINCE THE 00Z SATELLITE FIX TIME.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/06.
HANNA HAD BEEN MOVING DUE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KT…BUT THE 24-HOUR MOTION OF THE PRESSURE ENVELOPE SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE CENTER HAS ONLY BEEN MOVING AT AROUND 5 KT.
THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISMS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS WILL BE THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NORTH OF HANNA AND THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ABOUT 275 NMI WEST OF HANNA.
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AND MOVING THE UPPER-LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST TOO QUICKLY…WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FAST OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE LOW AND KEEPING IT STRONGER THAN THE MODEL FORECASTS.
HOWEVER…OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV IS NOW BEING SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN…SO A WEAKENING TREND AND SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION BY THE UPPER-LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HANNA IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE UPPER-LOW THROUGH 72-96 HOURS BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A POWERFUL MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH…WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
THAT DEVELOPING SCENARIO IS INDICATED BY ALMOST ALL OF THE MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES…BUT ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME SOUTHWARD COMPONENT TO HANNA’S MOTION.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A FAST AND RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS THE PAST 36 HOURS…SO THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS ADVISORY WAS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN REPLACED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY SHEAR DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS NOW THAT THE UPPER-LOW HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM HANNA.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVES TO A POSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HANNA…UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW SHOULD IMPROVE TO THE NORTHWEST AIDING A STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
ALTHOUGH NOT INDICATED AT ANY OF THE FORECAST TIMES… ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS…AND HANNA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL MODEL.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS…AND IS SIMILAR TO THE LGEM MODEL.
HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0300Z 21.1N 60.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 21.8N 62.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 23.2N 64.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 24.6N 66.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 25.7N 68.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 26.6N 70.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 26.5N 71.2W 80 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 26.0N 71.6W 75 KT
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August 29th, 2008 at 8:37 am
Hanna Projected Path - National Hurricane Center
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF HANNA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE AWAY…IT IS STILL PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
ONCE AGAIN THE CENTER HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS NOW CONFINED TO A CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS…BUT WITH THE CURRENT SHEARED PATTERN…THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS.
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE THE KEY PLAYER FOR BOTH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF HANNA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
IF THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS…THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES A GOOD SOLUTION FROM GLOBAL MODELS AND CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION FROM 24 TO 72 HOURS.
THE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL BUT DOES NOT SHOWS AS MUCH STRENGTHENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL AND HWRF.
HANNA HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.
A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
BEYOND 3 DAYS…MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CARVING A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND DEVELOPING A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE HANNA ON A SLOW SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK BEYOND THREE DAYS…BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION BUT DOES NOT GO AS FAR SOUTH AS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE MODELS.
IN FACT…THE GFS HAS JOINED THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN BRINGING THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD.
I PREFER TO WAIT FOR MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE FORECAST SUCH A RARE BUT NOT UNIQUE TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0900Z 21.7N 62.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 22.6N 64.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 24.0N 66.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 25.3N 68.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 31/0600Z 26.0N 70.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 71.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 25.5N 72.2W 80 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 25.0N 73.0W 75 KT
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August 29th, 2008 at 10:59 am
Hurricane Hanna Path - National Hurricane Center
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008
A 1031 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF HANNA EARLY THIS MORNING.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE CENTER BRIEFLY BECAME EXPOSED…HOWEVER…NEW CONVECTION FORMED SINCE THAT TIME AND THE CENTER IS POSITIONED JUST BENEATH THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 45 KT…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED.
IN THE NEAR TERM…THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LOW TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF HANNA WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN…WHICH SHOULD RELAX THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS CURRENTLY IMPINGING UPON THE CYCLONE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SOLUTION AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS…BRINING HANNA TO HURRICANE STATUS.
THEREAFTER THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER HANNA…WHICH ONE WOULD THINK SHOULD HALT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OR EVEN WEAKEN THE STORM.
HOWEVER…NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW STRENGTHENING OR LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE DURING THAT TIME.
ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR WILL PRODUCE A NEGATIVE AFFECT ON HANNA…THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE OF PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
HANNA MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION.
THEREAFTER…THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWARD TURN..SOUTH OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER…THE SHARPNESS OF THE TURN AND SPEED OF MOTION VARIES GREATLY.
THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS…MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL MOTION.
THIS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
AFTER 72 HOURS…THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…BUT IS NOTICEABLY SLOWER THAN THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS.
THE HWRF…WHICH SHOWS A CYCLONIC LOOP NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT DAY 5…IS CONSIDER AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.
IMPACTS IN THESE AREAS COULD OCCUR MUCH SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE EXACT TRACK…ESPECIALLY IF THE MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DOES NOT MATERIALIZED LATER TODAY OR ON SATURDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/1500Z 21.3N 62.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 22.2N 64.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 23.6N 66.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 24.6N 68.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 31/1200Z 25.1N 70.1W 70 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 24.7N 71.6W 65 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 24.0N 72.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 03/1200Z 23.0N 73.5W 60 KT
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hanna path, hannah projected path, hanna track, hannah projected track, hanna storm track, hannah tracking, hanna tracking models, hannah models, hanna computer models, hannah spaghetti models
August 29th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Hurricane Hanna Projected Path Computer Models
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008
THE CENTER OF HANNA REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RATHER SHAPELESS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
A 1412 UTC ASCAT PASS FOUND WINDS OF 40 KT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
GIVEN THE LOW BIAS TYPICAL OF ASCAT WINDS IN THIS RANGE…IT SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT.
THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH REMAIN T3.0 OR 45 KT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF HANNA HAS NOT BUDGED TODAY AND IT CONTINUES TO IMPART SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN EMPHATIC SUGGESTING THAT THE UPPER-LOW WILL MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN…ALLOWING HANNA TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN.
THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT SHOWS A LOWER PEAK INTENSITY THAN WAS FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
IN ABOUT 3 DAYS…THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THESE WINDS ARE PARTIALLY THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV.
DESPITE THE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECAST…THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT WEAKENING.
OUR INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AND STILL ASSUMES THAT THE NORTHERLY SHEAR WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON HANNA’S INTENSITY.
HANNA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/9.
IN GENERAL…THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF HANNA.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
THE HWRF CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER SHOWING A CYCLONIC LOOP NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS…BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER WEST THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 21.8N 63.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 22.8N 65.4W 50 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 24.0N 67.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 24.8N 69.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 25.0N 71.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 24.5N 72.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 23.7N 73.7W 60 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 23.0N 75.0W 60 KT
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August 29th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
Hurricane Hanna Projected Path
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT HANNA REMAINS WITHIN A VERY HARSH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION…EXPOSED WELL WEST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTIVE BAND…PASSED ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF BUOY 41043 WHICH RECORDED A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB.
CONSEQUENTLY…HANNA’S CENTRAL PRESSURE IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 1002 MB BASED ON THIS DATA.
A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS JUST CAME IN A FEW MINUTES AGO AND INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION MAY BE JUST A BIT SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY POSITION AS WELL AS ALSO REVEALING A FEW BELIEVABLE 40-45 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
THEREFORE…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CYCLONE WILL EITHER INCREASE IN DISTANCE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WITH TIME OR WEAKEN AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH.
THE SHIPS MODEL FOLLOWS SUIT BY SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS…WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST WITH GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.
THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST…THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC…WHICH COULD ALSO BE INFLUENCED BY HURRICANE GUSTAV’S OUTFLOW PATTERN.
SINCE THERE IS A CONSENSUS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INHIBITING SYNOPTIC UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN…A WEAKENING IS INDICATED THROUGH DAY 5.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/12…WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS INTACT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL BLEND THROUGH 72 HOURS.
BEYOND THE DAY 3 PERIOD…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARD THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A BLEND OF THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS WHICH APPEAR TO BE DEPICTING THE SHEARED VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM MORE ACCURATELY.
HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0300Z 22.1N 65.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 22.9N 67.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 23.9N 69.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 24.5N 70.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 24.6N 72.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 24.4N 73.4W 65 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 23.6N 75.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 04/0000Z 23.0N 76.3W 55 KT
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August 30th, 2008 at 9:34 am
Hurricane Hanna Path - Latest Update
Hanna’s projected path continues to be a puzzle, due to the influence of Hurricane Gustav on winds to the west over the Gulf of Mexico.
Four National Hurricane Center computer models for Hanna now show a turn to the Northwest upward off the Florida coast that they didn’t last night.
**************************************
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HANNA.
THE CENTER CONTINUES TO RUN AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION AND NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS OVER IT.
THIS MEANS THAT THE SHEAR HAS NOT RELAXED YET.
A NOAA BUOY…41043…HAS BEEN EXTREMELY USEFUL IN TRACKING THE CYCLONE.
IT HAS DEPICTED THE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA AND HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF NEAR 1002 MB.
AS LONG AS THE MODERATE SHEAR PREVAILS…CAUSED BY THE RESILIENT UPPER-LOW…HANNA MOST LIKELY WILL NOT STRENGTHEN.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON WEAKENING THE UPPER-LOW…CREATING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HANNA TO STRENGTHEN IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 12 AND 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER…THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY SHOWING SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING.
MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY HANNA…SOME OF
THEM QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY…DESPITE THE SHEAR.
I DO NOT HAVE AN EXPLANATION FOR IT.
THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGES BUT SATELLITE FIXES AND DATA FROM THE NOAA BUOY SUGGEST THAT HANNA HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.
FOR ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS…A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AROUND THE UPPER-LOW IS ANTICIPATED.
THEREAFTER…A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF HANNA WILL THEN PROVIDE THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW.
THIS SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD AND THEN AN EVEN SLOWER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
I TRIED VERY HARD NOT TO FORECAST THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TURN SINCE THIS IS NOT A VERY COMMON TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK BUT RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS FORCED ME TO DO SO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PRACTICALLY ON TOP OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
I ALWAYS WONDERED HOW TODAY’S SOPHISTICATED DYNAMICAL MODELS WOULD HAVE FORECAST HURRICANE BETSY BACK IN 1965.
THIS HURRICANE MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS.
HURICANE HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0900Z 21.9N 66.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 22.6N 68.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 23.3N 70.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 23.5N 71.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 23.5N 72.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 23.5N 74.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 23.0N 75.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 04/0600Z 22.5N 77.0W 55 KT
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August 30th, 2008 at 11:06 am
Hurricane Hanna Computer Models - Latest Update
The computer models of Hurrivane Hannah’s projected path continue puzzle the national Hurricane Center forecasters, as there is a lot of divergence in the storm track 3-5 days out.
Now, five of the NHC computer models for Hanna show some type of a turn to the North towards the Florida coast.
It is still to early to tell which way this will play out, but the GDFL model has historically been the most accurate.
The GDFL now shows Hanna making a complete loop off the Bahamas and then turning Northwest on Day 5 towards Florida.
***************************************
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
HANNA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BELOW -80 DEGREES C.
HOWEVER…THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION.
THE EXACT CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS A COUPLE OF SMALL VORTICES HAVE BEEN SEEN ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER CIRCULATION THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN T3.0 OR 45 KT AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGEST MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NEAR THAT VALUE.
THERE WERE SOME STRONGER WINDS SEEN IN THE QUIKSCAT DATA…BUT THESE WINDS WERE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER AND APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN RAIN-INFLATED.
THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/7.
HANNA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE MORE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS…WHICH HAS REQUIRED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST IN THE SHORT-TERM.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE PREDICTS A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER…THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS…AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE GFDL AND HWRF RESPOND BY SHOWING A VERY SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IN ABOUT 3 DAYS…WHILE THE UKMET TURNS HANNA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS EASTERN CUBA.
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD…THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SEVERAL OF THE FORECAST MODELS NOW INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND DAY 5.
THE NEW FORECAST WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…BUT SMOOTHS THROUGH THESE POSSIBLE UNDULATIONS AND SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION BETWEEN 72-120 HOURS.
THE NEW TRACK IS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE MUCH DISCUSSED UPPER-LOW JUST WEST OF THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE THIS MORNING.
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WESTERLY SHEAR MAY RELAX JUST A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GIVEN THE RESILIENCE OF HANNA…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER…STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST…SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW KEEPS HANNA JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED ONCE AGAIN…THAT THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS BELOW ALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE.
BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK…THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 21.9N 66.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 22.4N 67.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 22.9N 69.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 23.2N 71.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 23.2N 72.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 23.0N 73.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 23.0N 75.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 23.0N 76.5W 55 KT
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August 30th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
Hanna 2008 Latest Projected Path
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HANNA HAS CHANGED QUITE A BIT DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED TO ITS WEST…AND HANNA NOW HAS SOME RESEMBLANCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL CYCLONE.
EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY…BANDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE STILL YIELD INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 OR 45 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES.
HANNA HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KT TODAY.
A SIMILAR MOTION IS FORECAST BY THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS…SO VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THAT TIME.
THEREAFTER…THE MODEL SPREAD HAS BECOME EXTREMELY LARGE AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE NOW PREDICTS A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION OF HANNA DURING THE 48 TO ABOUT 96 HOUR TIME FRAME. THE GFDL AND HWRF BOTH PREDICT HANNA TO MAKE A CYCLONIC LOOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
MEANWHILE…THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION…WITH THE LATTER MODEL FORECASTING HANNA TO BE OVER EASTERN CUBA.
BEYOND 96 HOURS…NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE…EXCEPT THE UKMET…NOW FORECAST A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO RESUME AS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS.
WITH ALL OF THAT SAID…THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
THE NEW TRACK SLOWS DOWN THE STORM CONSIDERABLY…AND NOW PREDICTS A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS…ESPECIALLY AT DAY 5…BUT IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK FORECAST…THE INTENSITY FORECAST SEEMS JUST AS DIFFICULT.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS…FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY SHEAR.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AS TO HOW HANNA WILL RESPOND TO THE SHEAR…THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM…BUT LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY BETWEEN 36-96 HOURS.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD…SO SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATE AT DAY 5.
THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS BELOW ALL OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
THE 12-FT SEA RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41046.
HANNAH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 22.4N 67.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 22.8N 68.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 23.3N 70.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 23.5N 71.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 23.5N 72.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 23.5N 72.8W 55 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 24.0N 74.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 25.0N 76.5W 60 KT
August 30th, 2008 at 10:50 pm
Hurricane Hannah Projected Path - Latest Computer Models
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT A CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE HANNA HAS TRANSFORMED INTO A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO A SUBTROPICALCYCLONE…WITH A SLIGHT TILT TO THE WEST WITH HEIGHT.
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE PARTLY EXPOSED CENTER…PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME MODERATE SUBSIDENCE SPREADING OVER THE AREA PRODUCED BY CONVERGING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW NOW ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA AND GUSTAV’S OUTFLOW PATTERN…WITH THIS DRYER MORE STABLE AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM’S CORE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON DVORAK AND HEBERT/POTEAT INTENSITY TECHNIQUES…AS WELL AS A QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SUPPORTED THIS INTENSITY.
THE INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY SHEAR AROUND THE 24 HOUR PERIOD…THEN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AFTERWARD.
THE SHIPS AND THE LGEM AGREE WITH GRADUAL STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR APPEARS…THEN THE MODELS AGREE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.
BEYOND DAY 3…THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A HINT OF A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER WIND ENVIRONMENT…WHICH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ALSO DEPICT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS PHILOSOPHY AND INDICATES SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AT THE 120 HOUR PERIOD.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/7.
DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN ANCHORED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARD…A DEEP MID-LATITUDE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WEAKEN A PORTION OF THE RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE BAHAMAS WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING HIGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE HANNA TO TEMPORARILY SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD WHILE MAINTAINING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST…A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEAST OF HANNA IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE LOW LIFTING OUT AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST COAST.
THE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS RATHER LARGE…HOWEVER…THE MAJORITY ARE SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER OR EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BEYOND 72 HOURS…WHILE THE UKMET IS STILL PREDICTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN INTACT TO THE NORTH.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT INDICATES A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEYOND DAY 3.
HURRICANE HANNAH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0300Z 22.9N 67.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 23.3N 69.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 23.6N 70.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 23.6N 71.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 23.6N 72.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 23.8N 73.1W 55 KT
96HR VT 04/0000Z 24.5N 74.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 05/0000Z 26.5N 76.5W 60 KT
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August 31st, 2008 at 9:35 am
Hurricane Hannah Track - Latest Computer Models
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
HANNA HAS BEEN GOING THROUGH SOME STRUCTURAL CHANGES THAT HAVE RESEMBLED A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AT TIMES AS AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW AND DRY AIR HAVE BECOME ENTANGLED WITH THE INNER-CORE CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER…DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THAT THE UPPER-LOW HAS BEGUN TO DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD HISPANIOLA …WHICH MAY ALLOW HANNA TO TRANSITION BACK INTO A FULL WARM CORE TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.
THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 50 KT AND THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON A 30/2231Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ST3.0/45 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE AT 290/10.
ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES SOME SOUTHWARD COMPONENT TO HANNA’S TRACK BY 48 HOURS AS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IMPINGES ON THE CYCLONE BEHIND A DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE GUSTAV LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OF HANNA.
THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES AT LEAST 30 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR ACROSS HANNA AT 48 HOURS…WHICH SHOULD ACT TO DISPLACE ANY DEEP CONVECTION INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND ALSO HELP TO FORCE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD.
SHOULD HANNA BE STRIPPED OF ALL CONVECTION AROUND THAT TIME PERIOD…THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL ALSO INDICATES A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION …INCLUDING A CYCLONIC LOOP.
HOWEVER…BY 96 HOURS… NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST THE STRONG UPPER-TROUGH TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BE REPLACED BY A LARGE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF HANNA.
THE LATTER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INDUCE A NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION BY DAYS 4 AND 5.
THE KEY TO THE FORECAST TRACK AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES WILL BE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST HANNA MOVES BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS HANNA OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS…THE EXCEPTION BEING THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS…WHICH BRING HANNA NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA BY DAY 4 AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY DAY 5.
AT THIS TIME…THE SPECIFICS OF THOSE TWO TRACKS ARE CONSIDERED TO BE OUTLIERS…BUT THEY HAVE NOT BEEN ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TRICKY. WITH MORE THAN 30 KT OF SHEAR FORECAST TO AFFECT HANNA BY 48 HOURS…THE CYCLONE COULD EASILY BE SHEARED APART.
HOWEVER…WHILE THE SHEAR WILL BE STRONG…ITS NEGATIVE EFFECTS MAY BE OFFSET BY THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENT PATTERN THAT IS ALSO FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS HANNA AT THAT TIME.
BY 72-96 HOURS…ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW REPLACING THE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR PATTERN…INCLUDING OUTFLOW JETS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH…WHICH WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER 29-30C SSTS BENEATH THE CYCLONE.
HOWEVER…THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN HELD BELOW ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHAT THE EXACT STRUCTURE OF HANNA WILL BE AFTER THE UPCOMING STRONG SHEAR PATTERN ABATES IN AROUND 72 HOURS.
HURRICANE HANNAH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0900Z 23.2N 69.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 23.6N 70.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 23.7N 71.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 23.7N 72.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 23.3N 73.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 23.6N 73.9W 55 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 25.1N 75.4W 60 KT
120HR VT 05/0600Z 28.0N 78.0W 70 KT
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August 31st, 2008 at 11:23 am
TS Hanna Track - Latest Computer Models Update
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
HANNA’S OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE REMAINS RATHER RAGGED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND NEARBY BUOY 41046.
HANNA WILL ENCOUNTER A RATHER COMPLICATED ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS MAKING THE INTENSITY FORECAST PROBLEMATIC.
WHILE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER HANNA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN…THEY HAVE NOT NECESSARILY HAD THE BEST TRACK RECORD FORECASTING THIS FEATURE.
EVEN IF THE UPPER-LOW DOES WEAKEN AS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS…GUSTAV’S OUTFLOW COULD PRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA.
INDEED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A DEFORMATION AXIS FORMING NORTH OF HANNA AS A RESULT OF GUSTAV’S OUTFLOW INTERACTING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
BOTTOM LINE…THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS RATHER HOSTILE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
DYNAMICAL MODELS DO INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST AS A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OR CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS FORMS TO THE WEST OF HANNA.
HOWEVER…ACCURATELY PREDICTING THE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH HANNA WILL BE LOCATED AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS DIFFICULT…AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
HANNA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RESULTING IN A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR 280/09.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SUCH AN EVOLUTION IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE RESULTING IN A REDUCTION IN HANNA’S FORWARD SPEED AND POSSIBLY SOME ERRATIC MOTION.
BY DAYS 4 AND 5…THE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK WESTWARD IN ITS WAKE.
MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS RESPOND BY TURNING HANNA NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
HOWEVER…THE UKMET MODEL ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING SUFFICIENTLY FAR WEST…AND TO THE NORTH OF HANNA…TO RESULT IN MORE WESTWARD TRACK.
SINCE THIS IS A NORMALLY GOOD PERFORMING MODEL…IT CANNOT COMPLETELY BE IGNORED AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
GIVEN THE HIGH SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS…THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HANNA’S EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY.
HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/1500Z 23.3N 70.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 23.4N 71.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 23.5N 72.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 23.3N 72.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 23.0N 73.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 23.5N 74.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 26.0N 76.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 05/1200Z 29.5N 79.0W 70 KT
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August 31st, 2008 at 4:30 pm
Tropical Storm Hanna Path - Latest Computer Models
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING HANNA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS FOUND A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 48 KT WHICH REDUCES TO APPROXIMATELY 40 KT AT THE SURFACE.
WHILE THERE WERE A FEW HIGHER VALUES FROM THE SFMR…THESE WERE LIKELY RAIN INFLATED.
THE OVERALL INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.
HANNA IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHEAST.
GLOBAL MODELS DO FORECAST THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER…STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV’S UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW SHOULD KEEP NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA THROUGH DAY 3.
BY DAYS 4 AND 5…DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST A SOMEWHAT IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT AS A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OR CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS FORMS TO THE WEST OF HANNA.
THIS WOULD PUT HANNA IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER…ACCURATELY PREDICTING HANNA’S PROXIMITY TO LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS DIFFICULT…TO SAY THE LEAST.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING…BUT IS BELOW THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
HANNA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC…RESULTING IN A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR 280/09.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SUCH AN EVOLUTION IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN HANNA’S FORWARD SPEED.
IN FACT…SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW HANNA MEANDERING OVER OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
BY DAY 3…THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD IN ITS WAKE.
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AT THE EXTENDED RANGE.
THE GFS…GFDL…AND THE HWRF MODELS LIE ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND SHOW HANNA LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
CONVERSELY…THE UKMET MODEL SHOWS THE RIDGE NOSING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF HANNA…PRODUCING A TRACK ALONG THE LEFT…OR SOUTHWEST…SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.
SINCE THERE IS NO CLEAR REASON TO FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME…I’VE ELECTED TO LEAVE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED BEYOND 72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/2100Z 23.5N 71.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 23.5N 72.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 23.3N 73.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 23.3N 73.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 23.5N 74.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 24.5N 75.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 31.5N 81.0W 65 KT
August 31st, 2008 at 10:37 pm
Tropical Storm Hanna - Latest Computer Models
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED HANNA THIS AFTERNOON…DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM BETWEEN 2200 AND 0000 UTC HAVE BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AGAIN TO T3.0 OR 45 KT… AND NOAA BUOY 41046 RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK ONE-MINUTE WIND SPEED OF 39 KT VERY NEAR THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.
THESE DATA SUPPORT INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 45 KT.
BOTH THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS DIAGNOSE ABOUT 20 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA AT THIS TIME.
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHEAR VALUES DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. GIVEN THIS SHEAR…IT IS TEMPTING TO NOT FORECAST ANY STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME…BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INTENSIFICATION.
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING…HOWEVER IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE HANNA IS LOCATED.
THE LGEM MODEL IS AT THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM AND FORECASTS VERY LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS…BUT IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THEREAFTER AND USES A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AT 3 DAYS AND BEYOND.
HANNA HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/7 KT.
THE BUILDING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO BLOCK HANNA’S FORWARD MOTION VERY SOON…AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER 48 HOURS…THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE U.S. WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST OF HANNA.
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD BY THAT TIME.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO…BUT THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE LARGE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
THE UKMET REMAINS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER WITH A TRACK NEAR CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA…WHILE THE GFS…HWRF…AND GFDL ARE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A TRACK TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 23.7N 72.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 23.5N 72.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 23.4N 73.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 23.4N 73.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 23.7N 74.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 25.4N 75.8W 55 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 29.0N 79.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 06/0000Z 33.5N 82.0W 45 KT…INLAND
September 1st, 2008 at 8:14 am
Tropical Storm Hanna Path - Latest Track Update
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS…A LARGE MASS OF INTENSE CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -87C HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF HANNA.
NOAA BUOY 41046 JUST EAST OF THE ALLEGED CENTER HAS REPORTED 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 KT…WHICH EASILY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT…AND HANNA COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE STRONGER BASED ON AN EARLIER PRESSURE OF 997.1 MB FROM THE SAME BUOY.
A RECON AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE HANNA LATER TODAY AND PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF INTENSITY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 260/02…DUE MAINLY TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER.
A 01/0224Z ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGESTED THE CENTER OF HANNA WAS FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION.
IF THAT IS THE CASE…HANNA WOULD EASILY BE A 55-KT OR STRONGER TROPICAL STORM.
HOWEVER…EARLIER PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY…THE MOST RECENT NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY…AND THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR PATTERN ALL SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION RATHER THAN EMBEDDED WITHIN IT.
IN CONTRAST TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOCATION OF HANNA…ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NEARLY IDENTICAL FORECAST SCENARIOS OF THE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS.
THE BERMUDA HIGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY DAYS 3-5…WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND SPLITS…WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION DIGGING SOUTH OF HANNA AND THE NORTHERN PORTION LIFTING OUT AND ALLOWING RIDGING TO FILL IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF HANNA.
THIS COMBINED FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE HANNA TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY 72-96 HOURS/DAYS 3-4.
THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW THEY HANDLE THE SIZE OF HANNA BETWEEN NOW AND 72 HOURS.
THE ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP HANNA ABOUT 100 NMI IN DIAMETER SMALLER AT 500 MB THAN THE OTHER MODELS DO…WHICH RESULTS IN MORE RIDGING TO EXIST ON THE EAST SIDE OF HANNA…AND WHICH FORCES THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANS A LITTLE TOWARD THE ECMWF-UKMET SCENARIOS BASED ON HANNA’S CURRENT SIZE.
LITTLE…IF ANY…STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO HOSTILE NORTHERLY SHEAR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER…BY 96 HOURS…ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE ALMOST IDENTICAL 200 MB FLOW PATTERNS INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REGIMES SURROUNDING HANNA.
THIS TYPE OF DUAL JET PATTERN WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION…AND HANNA COULD EASILY BE A HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL…BUT REMAINS BELOW ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
ALL INTERESTS IN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECASTS FOR HANNA SINCE ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OF HANNA MUCH CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0900Z 23.6N 72.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 23.4N 73.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 23.4N 73.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 23.7N 74.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 24.2N 74.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 26.2N 76.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 30.0N 80.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 35.0N 82.5W 30 KT…INLAND
September 1st, 2008 at 10:48 am
Tropical Storm Hanna Projected Path - Latest Computer Models
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
HANNA’S OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN IMPROVING THIS MORNING WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE NOW COVERING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AND SUGGEST MAX WINDS NEAR 55 KT.
I’M GOING TO CONSERVATIVELY SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT SINCE AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ON ITS WAY.
HAVING SAID THAT…A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD BE LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS SUGGEST THAT HANNA COULD BE STRONGER THAN ESTIMATED.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT HAS DISSIPATED…AND HANNA NOW FINDS ITSELF IN A VERY SMALL AREA OF LOW SHEAR.
HOWEVER…WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV’S UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW JUST NORTH OF HANNA…AND GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR PERSISTING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY…THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHOWS HANNA BECOMING A HURRICANE A LITTLE SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
BY 72 HOURS…GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN…AND HANNA COULD FIND ITSELF IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. STILL…PREDICTING THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT…AND TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY…AT DAYS 3-5 IS VERY DIFFICULT.
WHILE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE…HANNA APPEARS TO BE MOVING MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250/4.
A VERY SLOW WEST-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
IN 2 TO 3 DAYS…THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CAUSING HANNA TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH 36 HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST MOTION.
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY AT THE EXTENDED RANGES AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 23.0N 72.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.8N 73.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 22.7N 73.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 22.9N 74.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 23.7N 74.9W 65 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 26.5N 77.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 30.5N 80.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 36.5N 82.0W 35 KT…INLAND
September 1st, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Hurricane Hanna Latest Update On Projected Path
Tropical Storm Hanna is now officially a Category 1 hurricane and expected to make landfall in South Carolina Friday morning.
HURRICANE HANNA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
130 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY OF HANNA.
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA IS NOW A HURRICANE WITH 65 KT WINDS.
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AT ALL FORECAST TIMES.
THE TRACK HAS ALSO BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST FIX.
AT 130 PM AST…1730Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST…OR VERY NEAR MAYAGUANA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/HR.
A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…HANNA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HANNA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM…TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES…260 KM.
THE TURKS ISLAND JUST REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH…95 KP/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB…29.09 INCHES.
HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1730Z 22.4N 72.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.4N 73.3W 70 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 22.5N 73.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 22.8N 74.2W 70 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 23.7N 74.9W 75 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 26.5N 77.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 30.5N 80.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 36.5N 82.0W 30 KT…INLAND
September 1st, 2008 at 6:04 pm
Projected Path of Hurricane Hannah Latest Update
Latest Hanna computer models update from the National Hurricane Center showing storm track predictions of landfall ranging anywhere from Florida to the Carolinas.
HURRICANE HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB AND A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 89 KT.
THESE NUMBERS INDICATE HANNA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE FACE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR…AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT SINCE GLOBAL MODES SHOW THE SHEAR REMAINING STRONG OR POSSIBLY INCREASING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GIVEN HANNA’S TENACITY THUS FAR…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT HANNA WILL BE ABLE TO FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR.
AT DAY 5…HANNA IS FORECAST TO BE INLAND SO WEAKENING IS SHOWN.
THE LAST FEW FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA HAS BEEN MEANDERING.
HOWEVER…A 12-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION IS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE.
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HANNA NOW DISSIPATED…THE CYCLONE’S MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC.
AFTER THAT…GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC…AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE HANNA TO TURN NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS WITH POTENTIAL AREAS OF IMPACT RANGING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
UNTIL HANNA TAKES A MORE DEFINITIVE MOTION…IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BE MORE SPECIFIC ABOUT THE POTENTIAL THREAT AREA.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.2N 72.6W 70 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 21.9N 72.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 21.8N 73.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 22.1N 73.9W 75 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 23.1N 74.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 27.0N 78.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 31.5N 81.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 39.0N 80.5W 25 KT…INLAND
September 1st, 2008 at 10:26 pm
Projected Path of Hurricane Hanna Latest Update
Latest projected path for Hurricane Hanna computer models from the National Hurricane Center predicts landfall as a possible Category 3 storm hitting in the middle of the South Carolina coast with Hanna then making a deep run into the state with hurricane force winds continuing for 12 hours after landfall.
Hanna is beginning to remind people of Hurricane Hugo back in 1989 which blew up into a Category 5 and carved a huge swath through the entire State of South Carolina.
Rough timeline prediction for Hurricane Hanna landfall is early Friday afternoon with the storm moving rapidly inland. Of course, place and time of landfall are extremely hard to predict but most of the computer models are in agreement on this one.
———————————-
HURRICANE HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
WHILE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS…WHAT’S LEFT SHOWS GOOD BANDING IN AGREEMENT WITH RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
THE PINE CAY SURFACE STATION IN THE CAICOS ISLAND SUGGESTS THAT THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO ABOUT 978 MB.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT…ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV…IS CLEARLY NOT MAKING IT INTO THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
EVEN SO…ONLY MODEST CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS UNTIL THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO REVERSE WHEN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THIS EVOLUTION…WHICH SHOULD CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR INTENSIFICATION.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LIES A LITTLE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ONE…AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE…WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS A LITTLE HIGHER AND THE STATISTICAL MODELS A LITTLE LOWER.
ONE SHOULD NOT INTERPOLATE A PRESUMED LANDFALL INTENSITY FROM THE 72 AND 96 HOUR FORECAST POINTS…AS SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 72 HOURS AND LANDFALL.
THERE HAS BEEN NO AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE THIS EVENING AND PRECISE LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT.
IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING…FIRST APPROACHING THE STATION AT PINE CAY BUT IN RECENT HOURS MOVING AWAY AS THE WINDS AT THAT STATION HAVE INCREASED TO 58 MPH IN THE LAST HOUR.
WITH NO DEFINITIVE TREND YET ESTABLISHED…THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE STATIONARY.
HANNA IS CURRENTLY BLOCKED BY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES…BUT THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD.
AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS…A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR HANNA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET…THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS REMARKABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF.
THE UKMET STILL IS THE LEFT-MOST OUTLIER…SHOWING MORE OF A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION INITIALLY AND A TRACK CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 18Z UKMET SHOWS LESS OF THIS INITIAL SOUTHWESTWARD JUMP THAN THE FULL RUN FROM 12Z.
HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 21.8N 72.5W 70 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 21.8N 72.8W 75 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 22.0N 73.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 22.8N 74.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 24.0N 75.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 28.0N 78.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 34.0N 80.5W 65 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 07/0000Z 41.5N 77.0W 30 KT…REMNANT LOW
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:26 am
NHC Computer Models Hurricane Hanna Projected Path
The National Hurricane Center is now saying that Hanna could be a major Category 3 hurricane at landfall on the South Carolina coast.
HURRICANE HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008
CONVENTIONAL AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE HANNA HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WHILE MAINTAINING A PRONOUNCED EYE FEATURE IN A 02/203Z AMSU OVERPASS.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 KT AND T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB…RESPECTIVELY.
THEREFORE…THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/02 KT. LATEST SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT HANNA COULD STILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD.
HOWEVER…ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PINCH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF HANNA DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS…WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SLOW NORTH AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
BY 48-72 HOURS…THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF HANNA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH 96 HOURS…WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A FASTER FORWARD NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO GENERALLY EXTEND EAST-WEST BETWEEN 32-24N LATITUDE…AND THE EXACT TRACK OF HANNA WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE CYCLONE MOVES DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS…AND ALSO HOW STRONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WILL BE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.
HANNA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA…AFTER WHICH IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST.
AN APPROXIMATE 84-HOUR POSITION WOULD BE NEAR 31.3N 80.2W.
HANNA HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED INNER-CORE STRUCTURE BASED ON THE 0202Z AMSU OVERPASS…AND ANOTHER CDO FEATURE WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD OF -80C TO -87C HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER SIMILAR TO THE THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.
THE CURRENT 30-KT NORTHERLY SHEAR PATTERN IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT WITH LESS THAN 15 KT OF SHEAR AT 72-96 HOURS.
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL…STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY …AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HANNA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY…OR AT LEAST REMAIN STEADY…UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS BETWEEN 84 AND 96 HOURS…RATHER THAN APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING LIKE SOME AUTOMATIC INTENSITY PLOTTING SOFTWARE MAY SHOW.
IN FACT…BY 84 HOURS HANNA COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE.
HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0900Z 21.3N 72.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 21.4N 73.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 22.0N 73.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 23.0N 74.3W 80 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 24.4N 75.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 28.7N 79.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 34.7N 80.7W 55 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 07/0600Z 42.5N 74.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
September 2nd, 2008 at 6:27 pm
Hurricane Hanna Track
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING HANNA CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED.
THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 850 MB WAS 66 KT WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 55 KT AT THE SURFACE. HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM.
BY TOMORROW…GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CUT OFF JUST WEST OF HANNA AND THEN DROP SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IF THIS EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES…AND ASSUMING HANNA IS ABLE TO FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR…THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR HANNA TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO…IN LINE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY MODELS.
HOWEVER…THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO IS COMPLEX…WHICH RESULTS IN LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT HANNA CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 150/02.
TRACK MODELS INSIST THAT HANNA WILL START ITS MUCH-ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST SOON…AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.
SUCH A TRACK WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
HANNA IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT MAKES ITS APPROACH TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER…UNTIL HANNA BEGINS A MORE DEFINITIVE MOTION…IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE POTENTIAL IMPACT AREA.
IN ADDITION…THE ANTICIPATED ANGLE OF APPROACH TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST MEANS THAN ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS IN BOTH TIME AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL.
IN FACT…THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE SHOWS THAT THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE ABOUT EQUAL AT EACH SPECIFIC LOCATION ALONG THE COAST FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 20.4N 72.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 20.9N 73.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 22.2N 74.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 23.5N 75.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 25.4N 77.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 30.5N 80.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 38.0N 78.0W 30 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 07/1800Z 47.0N 66.0W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
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September 2nd, 2008 at 10:26 pm
Hurricane Hanna Track - Latest Update
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008
THE LAST COUPLE OF FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT HANNA WAS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.
IT SEEMS THAT HANNA IS MAKING A SMALL COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
I HAVE TO GIVE SOME CREDIT TO THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS WHICH PREDICTED THIS LOOP A FEW DAYS AGO…HOWEVER THEY INDICATED THAT HANNA WOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WHEN IT OCCURRED.
SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED HANNA THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE…AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HANNA HAS WEAKENED EVEN MORE.
HOWEVER…WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 55 KT SINCE ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM AROUND 0600 UTC.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO SHEAR HANNA.
BUT…THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CUT-OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF HANNA VERY SOON…AND THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT THIS IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR.
AS THE UPPER-LOW CUTS-OFF IT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD WHICH SHOULD TURN THE UPPER-FLOW OVER THE STORM FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST…WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.
AT 96 HOURS…HANNA WAS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL STORM…BECAUSE IT IS PREDICTED TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND THERE COULD STILL BE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER WATER AT THAT TIME.
THE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST THAT HANNA WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON AS THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD…ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO BUILD WESTWARD.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO STEER HANNA ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD…BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL LOCATION…BUT THEREAFTER IT REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
AS A REMINDER…ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AS SMALL DEVIATIONS LEFT OR RIGHT WOULD HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON BOTH THE TIME AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL.
A G-IV MISSION WAS FLOWN THIS EVENING AND THE DATA GATHERED BY THIS AIRCRAFT SHOULD GET ASSIMILATED INTO THE 0000 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0300Z 20.5N 72.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 21.3N 72.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 22.8N 73.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 24.4N 75.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 26.4N 77.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 32.5N 80.5W 75 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 07/0000Z 41.0N 75.5W 35 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 08/0000Z 50.0N 60.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
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September 3rd, 2008 at 8:52 am
Hurricane Hanna Track
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008
FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE HANNA HAS ALMOST COMPLETED A TIGHT CYCLONIC LOOP AND IS NOW POSSIBLY TURNING SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DECREASED TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE…WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE 993 MB BASED ON A DROPSONDE REPORT THAT ALSO MEASURED 25-KT SURFACE WINDS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/02.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST REASONINGS.
HANNA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES…POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA.
IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTAINED UPPER-AIR DATA FROM DROPSONDES RELEASED AROUND HANNAFROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT…WHICH USUALLY PRODUCES BETTER TRACK FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL…WITH HANNA EXPECTED TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS BY 36 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS.
HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0900Z 20.2N 72.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 21.5N 72.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 23.2N 74.1W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 24.8N 76.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 27.2N 78.1W 75 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 33.7N 80.0W 70 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 07/0600Z 42.5N 71.5W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
120HR VT 08/0600Z 51.0N 55.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
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September 3rd, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Hurricane Hanna Track
Hurricane Hanna, or Hurricane Hannah as some like to spell it, is headed for the coast of North Carolina, but only as a Category 1 hurricane.
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008
HANNA HAS BEEN A TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE. SINCE ITS FORMATION IT HAS FOUGHT TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS…STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR AND THE EFFECTS OF LAND. FURTHERMORE…AT TIMES HANNA HAS RESEMBLED A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.
SURFACE AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS TONIGHT CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT HANNA HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR IS DECREASING AND HANNA IS DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THESE CHANGES IN THE UPPER FLOW OVER HANNA HAVE BEEN ACCURATELY FORECAST BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 55 KNOTS…AND IS BASED ON A 68 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASURED AS THE PLANE DEPARTED THE CYCLONE.
WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT…SOME INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HANNA IS FORECAST TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS IN A DAY OR TWO BUT IT COULD OCCUR EARLIER.
NONE OF THE GUIDANCE INTENSIFIES HANNA BEYOND 70 KNOTS.
THE CENTER HAS BEEN ROTATING AROUND A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE AND FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DATA FROM A NOAA BUOY SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/11.
SOME OF THIS MOTION COULD HAVE RESULTED FROM REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.
SINCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF HANNA…A NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH.
THE TRACK MODELS ARE NOT TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS NOT VERY HIGH.
HOWEVER…THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS HANNA MOVING OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
BECAUSE HANNA IS A LARGE CYCLONE…A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST EARLY THURSDAY.
A NOAA JET HAS SAMPLED THE ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT AND THE DATA IS BEING USED TO INITIALIZE THE 00Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0300Z 23.2N 72.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 24.7N 73.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 26.9N 75.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 29.3N 77.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 32.0N 79.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 39.5N 74.0W 50 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 08/0000Z 46.5N 63.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/0000Z 49.0N 47.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
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September 4th, 2008 at 9:05 am
Hurricane Hannah Projected Path
Latest update on projected path of Hurricane Hannah track from the National Hurricane Center shows that Hanna is a very large hurricane some 600 miles across, but a very weak one. Read the latest computer tracking models discussion and forecasted track update below.
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TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
LOOKS CAN CERTAINLY BE DECEIVING. HANNA HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING VERY MUCH DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AN EARLIER STRONG BURST DIED AFTER ABOUT 04Z…AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST CONTINUES TO IMPOSE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR.
NEVERTHELESS…HANNA HAS A LARGE AND ROBUST CIRCULATION…AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 990 MB.
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB HAVE BEEN AS STRONG AS 65 KT…AND NUMEROUS SFMR VALUES OF 55-60 KT HAVE BEEN RETRIEVED.
I HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO DISCOUNT THE SFMR WINDS…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.
GIVEN THAT THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO PERSIST OVER HANNA EVEN AS IT GAINS LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…STRENGTHENING WOULD AT FIRST GLANCE SEEM UNLIKELY.
CONSISTENT WITH THAT THINKING…THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR EVEN SOME WEAKENING…EXCEPT MUCH LATER WHEN HANNA BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
ON THE OTHER HAND…THE SHIPS AND LGEM…DESPITE DIAGNOSING LITTLE CHANGE IN SHEAR…FORECAST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS.
A CONSENSUS OF THESE VARIOUS MODELS WOULD YIELD A FLAT 60 KT INTENSITY FORECAST UNTIL HANNA PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE CAROLINAS…BUT FOR CONTINUITY AND SINCE HANNA IS ALREADY PRODUCING WINDS JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH….65 KT IS STILL SHOWN EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST AS HANNA ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
DESPITE HAVING AIRCRAFT FIXES…THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAGE…PROBABLY DUE TO THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION…BUT THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/10.
HANNA SHOULD ROUND THE BUILDING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND ROUGHLY HUG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES…BUT PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG THE WAY.
PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO THE BENEFIT OF DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET MISSION LAST NIGHT…THE LATEST MODEL TRACKS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE TIGHTER AGREEMENT…AND IN GENERAL THEY HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE…TO BE CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS.
AS ALWAYS…ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST OF THE CENTER…ESPECIALLY SINCE MUCH OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA IS WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0900Z 24.0N 72.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 25.3N 74.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 27.5N 76.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 30.3N 78.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 33.5N 78.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 41.0N 72.5W 50 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 08/0600Z 48.5N 59.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/0600Z 51.5N 41.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
——————————————————–
Hurricane Hanna 8:00 a.m. - Latest Update
AT 800 AM AST…1200Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES…455 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 760 MILES…1220 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.
HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF HANNA WILL PASS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY…AND WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER…RAINS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA WILL REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES…465 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB…29.20 INCHES.
September 4th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Hurricane Hannah Track - Latest Path Update
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TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31…CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
…CORRECT STATUS AT 48 AND 72 HR…
VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS CHOKING OFF CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE OF HANNA…AND THE CYCLONE HAS A VERY SUBTROPICAL APPEARANCE.
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS HAVE COME DOWN AS WELL.
BASED ON SOME 52 KT SFMR WINDS AROUND 11Z…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING RIGHT NOW…WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND POOR THERMODYNAMICS.
THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT DRY AIR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE UP TO LANDFALL.
HOWEVER…AS HANNA AND THE UPPER LOW BEGIN TO SEPARATE SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS…INCLUDING THE GFS…SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL LESSEN SOMEWHAT.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION…AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW HANNA ATTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF…ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE IS LOWER.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/10.
THE FORECAST SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A DEEP LAYER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.
HANNA IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK IS REQUIRED.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BECAUSE THE BETTER PERFORMING MODELS THIS YEAR…NAMELY THE GFS AND GFDL…ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
BECAUSE OF THE LARGE…SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION…THE EXACT TRAJECTORY OF THE CENTER IS RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT.
HURRICANE HANNAH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/1500Z 24.5N 73.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 26.2N 75.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 28.7N 77.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 31.7N 78.2W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 35.4N 77.4W 55 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 07/1200Z 43.0N 69.5W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 08/1200Z 50.0N 54.0W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/1200Z 51.5N 37.5W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
September 4th, 2008 at 8:06 pm
Hurricane Hannah Track - Latest Tracking Projected Path
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING HANNA IS FINDING THE CIRCULATION CENTER AT 850 MB DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MEAN CENTER OF ROTATION APPARENT IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES.
THERE ARE ALSO MULTIPLE SWIRLS…BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS JUMPED A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY.
ALTHOUGH A COUPLE MORE SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE…THE ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME…THAT IS…MORE ALONG THE TRACK…AND THEN HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON THE TRACK.
THE BASIC FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT LEFTWARD SHIFT…AND IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
RECONNAISSANCE DATA THUS FAR DO NOT SUPPORT ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AIR IMPINGING ON HANNA FROM THE SOUTHEAST…AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH A LITTLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL…NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODELS NOW MAKE HANNA A HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW TOPS OUT AT 60 KT.
HURRICANE WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT HANNA BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST…AND PEOPLE ARE REMINDED THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A MINIMAL HURRICANE.
HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 25.5N 75.0W 55 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 27.2N 76.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 30.3N 78.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 33.9N 78.3W 60 KT…ON THE COAST
48HR VT 06/1800Z 37.5N 76.5W 50 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 07/1800Z 46.0N 65.5W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 08/1800Z 51.0N 50.0W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/1800Z 52.5N 32.5W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
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September 5th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
Hurricane Hannah Path - Latest Projected Path
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE REPORTED TWO AREAS OF WIND OF ABOUT 65 KT.
HOWEVER…DROPSONDE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE SFMR ESTIMATES WERE A LITTLE TOO HIGH.
THE MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 75 KT ABOUT 75 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE LAST REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 984 MB…UP A LITTLE FROM THIS MORNING.
BASED ON ALL THIS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE METEOROLOGICALLY BETWEEN A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM AND A 65-KT HURRICANE.
THE MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT WOBBLY 360/17…WITH A RE-ANALYSIS OF AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTING THIS MOTION BEGAN JUST AFTER THE 11Z AIRCRAFT FIX.
HANNA IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERLIES IN 24-36 HR.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION.
ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO…AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AMONGST THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE STILL ISSUES FOR HANNA…AND SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.
HOWEVER…THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A CONVECTIVE BURST COULD CAUSE THE STORM TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HR.
THE GFS AND UKMET CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DEEPENING AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 96 AND 120 HR FORECASTS.
HURRICANE HANNAH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 30.8N 78.7W 60 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 33.2N 78.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 36.7N 76.8W 50 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 07/0600Z 40.7N 72.4W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 07/1800Z 44.5N 65.6W 40 KT…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 08/1800Z 50.0N 47.5W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 09/1800Z 51.0N 30.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 10/1800Z 52.5N 14.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
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