Hurricane Hanna Projected Path – The latest computer models show Hurricane Hanna strengthening with most projected path models pointing at the Carolinas.
The projected path computer models for Hurricane Hanna below have most paths predicting landfall in either South Carolina or North Carolina.
Two other models predict landfall in Georgia. However, TS Hanna has one model projecting a path around the Florida Keys and up to the Florida panhandle, so the National Hurricane Center models are not entirely in agreement.
All projected paths do call for Tropical Storm Hanna to intensify to hurricane status by Thursday.
National Hurricane Center – Computer Model Forecast:
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008HANNA IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHEAST.
GLOBAL MODELS DO FORECAST THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER…STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV’S UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW SHOULD KEEP NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA THROUGH DAY 3.
BY DAYS 4 AND 5…DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST A SOMEWHAT IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT AS A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OR CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS FORMS TO THE WEST OF HANNA.
THIS WOULD PUT HANNA IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER…ACCURATELY PREDICTING HANNA’S PROXIMITY TO LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS DIFFICULT…TO SAY THE LEAST.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR HANNA SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING…BUT IS BELOW THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
And that’s the latest update on the computer models of Hurricane Hanna projected path.
Tags: hanna path, hanna projected path, hurricane hanna projected path, national hurricane center
August 31st, 2008 at 4:28 pm
Tropical Storm Hanna Path – Latest Computer Models
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING HANNA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS FOUND A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 48 KT WHICH REDUCES TO APPROXIMATELY 40 KT AT THE SURFACE.
WHILE THERE WERE A FEW HIGHER VALUES FROM THE SFMR…THESE WERE LIKELY RAIN INFLATED.
THE OVERALL INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.
HANNA IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHEAST.
GLOBAL MODELS DO FORECAST THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER…STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV’S UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW SHOULD KEEP NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA THROUGH DAY 3.
BY DAYS 4 AND 5…DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST A SOMEWHAT IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT AS A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OR CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS FORMS TO THE WEST OF HANNA.
THIS WOULD PUT HANNA IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER…ACCURATELY PREDICTING HANNA’S PROXIMITY TO LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS DIFFICULT…TO SAY THE LEAST.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING…BUT IS BELOW THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
HANNA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC…RESULTING IN A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR 280/09.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SUCH AN EVOLUTION IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN HANNA’S FORWARD SPEED.
IN FACT…SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW HANNA MEANDERING OVER OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
BY DAY 3…THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD IN ITS WAKE.
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AT THE EXTENDED RANGE.
THE GFS…GFDL…AND THE HWRF MODELS LIE ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND SHOW HANNA LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
CONVERSELY…THE UKMET MODEL SHOWS THE RIDGE NOSING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF HANNA…PRODUCING A TRACK ALONG THE LEFT…OR SOUTHWEST…SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.
SINCE THERE IS NO CLEAR REASON TO FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME…I’VE ELECTED TO LEAVE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED BEYOND 72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/2100Z 23.5N 71.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 23.5N 72.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 23.3N 73.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 23.3N 73.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 23.5N 74.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 24.5N 75.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 31.5N 81.0W 65 KT
August 31st, 2008 at 5:06 pm
[...] Original post by admin [...]
August 31st, 2008 at 8:05 pm
[...] admin wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptHurricane Hanna Projected Path – The latest computer models show Hurricane Hanna strengthening with most projected path models pointing at the Carolinas. The projected path computer models for Hurricane Hanna below have most paths predicting landfall in either South Carolina or North Carolina. Two other models predict landfall in Georgia. However, TS Hanna has one model projecting [...] [...]
August 31st, 2008 at 10:34 pm
Tropical Storm Hanna – Latest Computer Models
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED HANNA THIS AFTERNOON…DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM BETWEEN 2200 AND 0000 UTC HAVE BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AGAIN TO T3.0 OR 45 KT… AND NOAA BUOY 41046 RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK ONE-MINUTE WIND SPEED OF 39 KT VERY NEAR THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.
THESE DATA SUPPORT INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 45 KT.
BOTH THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS DIAGNOSE ABOUT 20 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA AT THIS TIME.
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHEAR VALUES DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. GIVEN THIS SHEAR…IT IS TEMPTING TO NOT FORECAST ANY STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME…BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INTENSIFICATION.
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING…HOWEVER IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE HANNA IS LOCATED.
THE LGEM MODEL IS AT THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM AND FORECASTS VERY LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS…BUT IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THEREAFTER AND USES A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AT 3 DAYS AND BEYOND.
HANNA HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/7 KT.
THE BUILDING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO BLOCK HANNA’S FORWARD MOTION VERY SOON…AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER 48 HOURS…THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE U.S. WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST OF HANNA.
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD BY THAT TIME.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO…BUT THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE LARGE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
THE UKMET REMAINS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER WITH A TRACK NEAR CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA…WHILE THE GFS…HWRF…AND GFDL ARE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A TRACK TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 23.7N 72.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 23.5N 72.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 23.4N 73.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 23.4N 73.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 23.7N 74.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 25.4N 75.8W 55 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 29.0N 79.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 06/0000Z 33.5N 82.0W 45 KT…INLAND
September 1st, 2008 at 8:10 am
Hurricane Hanna Path – Latest Track Update
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS…A LARGE MASS OF INTENSE CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -87C HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF HANNA.
NOAA BUOY 41046 JUST EAST OF THE ALLEGED CENTER HAS REPORTED 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 KT…WHICH EASILY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT…AND HANNA COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE STRONGER BASED ON AN EARLIER PRESSURE OF 997.1 MB FROM THE SAME BUOY.
A RECON AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE HANNA LATER TODAY AND PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF INTENSITY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 260/02…DUE MAINLY TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER.
A 01/0224Z ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGESTED THE CENTER OF HANNA WAS FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION.
IF THAT IS THE CASE…HANNA WOULD EASILY BE A 55-KT OR STRONGER TROPICAL STORM.
HOWEVER…EARLIER PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY…THE MOST RECENT NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY…AND THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR PATTERN ALL SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION RATHER THAN EMBEDDED WITHIN IT.
IN CONTRAST TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOCATION OF HANNA…ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NEARLY IDENTICAL FORECAST SCENARIOS OF THE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS.
THE BERMUDA HIGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY DAYS 3-5…WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND SPLITS…WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION DIGGING SOUTH OF HANNA AND THE NORTHERN PORTION LIFTING OUT AND ALLOWING RIDGING TO FILL IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF HANNA.
THIS COMBINED FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE HANNA TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY 72-96 HOURS/DAYS 3-4.
THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW THEY HANDLE THE SIZE OF HANNA BETWEEN NOW AND 72 HOURS.
THE ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP HANNA ABOUT 100 NMI IN DIAMETER SMALLER AT 500 MB THAN THE OTHER MODELS DO…WHICH RESULTS IN MORE RIDGING TO EXIST ON THE EAST SIDE OF HANNA…AND WHICH FORCES THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANS A LITTLE TOWARD THE ECMWF-UKMET SCENARIOS BASED ON HANNA’S CURRENT SIZE.
LITTLE…IF ANY…STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO HOSTILE NORTHERLY SHEAR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER…BY 96 HOURS…ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE ALMOST IDENTICAL 200 MB FLOW PATTERNS INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REGIMES SURROUNDING HANNA.
THIS TYPE OF DUAL JET PATTERN WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION…AND HANNA COULD EASILY BE A HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL…BUT REMAINS BELOW ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
ALL INTERESTS IN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECASTS FOR HANNA SINCE ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OF HANNA MUCH CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0900Z 23.6N 72.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 23.4N 73.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 23.4N 73.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 23.7N 74.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 24.2N 74.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 26.2N 76.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 30.0N 80.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 35.0N 82.5W 30 KT…INLAND
September 1st, 2008 at 10:44 am
Hurricane Hanna Projected Path – Latest Computer Models
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
HANNA’S OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN IMPROVING THIS MORNING WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE NOW COVERING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AND SUGGEST MAX WINDS NEAR 55 KT.
I’M GOING TO CONSERVATIVELY SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT SINCE AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ON ITS WAY.
HAVING SAID THAT…A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD BE LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS SUGGEST THAT HANNA COULD BE STRONGER THAN ESTIMATED.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT HAS DISSIPATED…AND HANNA NOW FINDS ITSELF IN A VERY SMALL AREA OF LOW SHEAR.
HOWEVER…WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV’S UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW JUST NORTH OF HANNA…AND GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR PERSISTING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY…THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHOWS HANNA BECOMING A HURRICANE A LITTLE SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
BY 72 HOURS…GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN…AND HANNA COULD FIND ITSELF IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. STILL…PREDICTING THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT…AND TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY…AT DAYS 3-5 IS VERY DIFFICULT.
WHILE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE…HANNA APPEARS TO BE MOVING MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250/4.
A VERY SLOW WEST-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
IN 2 TO 3 DAYS…THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CAUSING HANNA TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH 36 HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST MOTION.
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY AT THE EXTENDED RANGES AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 23.0N 72.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.8N 73.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 22.7N 73.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 22.9N 74.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 23.7N 74.9W 65 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 26.5N 77.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 30.5N 80.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 36.5N 82.0W 35 KT…INLAND
September 1st, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Hurricane Hanna Latest Update On Projected Path
Tropical Storm Hanna is now officially a Category 1 hurricane and expected to make landfall in South Carolina Friday morning.
HURRICANE HANNA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
130 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY OF HANNA.
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA IS NOW A HURRICANE WITH 65 KT WINDS.
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AT ALL FORECAST TIMES.
THE TRACK HAS ALSO BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST FIX.
AT 130 PM AST…1730Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST…OR VERY NEAR MAYAGUANA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/HR.
A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…HANNA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HANNA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM…TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES…260 KM.
THE TURKS ISLAND JUST REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH…95 KP/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB…29.09 INCHES.
HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1730Z 22.4N 72.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.4N 73.3W 70 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 22.5N 73.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 22.8N 74.2W 70 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 23.7N 74.9W 75 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 26.5N 77.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 30.5N 80.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 36.5N 82.0W 30 KT…INLAND
September 1st, 2008 at 6:00 pm
Projected Path of Hurricane Hannah Latest Update
Latest Hanna computer models update from the National Hurricane Center showing storm track predictions of landfall ranging anywhere from Florida to the Carolinas.
HURRICANE HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB AND A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 89 KT.
THESE NUMBERS INDICATE HANNA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE FACE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR…AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT SINCE GLOBAL MODES SHOW THE SHEAR REMAINING STRONG OR POSSIBLY INCREASING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GIVEN HANNA’S TENACITY THUS FAR…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT HANNA WILL BE ABLE TO FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR.
AT DAY 5…HANNA IS FORECAST TO BE INLAND SO WEAKENING IS SHOWN.
THE LAST FEW FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA HAS BEEN MEANDERING.
HOWEVER…A 12-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION IS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE.
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HANNA NOW DISSIPATED…THE CYCLONE’S MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC.
AFTER THAT…GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC…AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE HANNA TO TURN NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS WITH POTENTIAL AREAS OF IMPACT RANGING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
UNTIL HANNA TAKES A MORE DEFINITIVE MOTION…IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BE MORE SPECIFIC ABOUT THE POTENTIAL THREAT AREA.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.2N 72.6W 70 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 21.9N 72.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 21.8N 73.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 22.1N 73.9W 75 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 23.1N 74.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 27.0N 78.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 31.5N 81.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 39.0N 80.5W 25 KT…INLAND
September 1st, 2008 at 9:12 pm
[...] Hurricane Hanna Projected Path [...]
September 1st, 2008 at 10:22 pm
Projected Path of Hurricane Hanna Latest Update
Latest projected path for Hurricane Hanna computer models from the National Hurricane Center predicts landfall as a possible Category 3 storm hitting in the middle of the South Carolina coast with Hanna then making a deep run into the state with hurricane force winds continuing for 12 hours after landfall.
Hanna is beginning to remind people of Hurricane Hugo back in 1989 which blew up into a Category 5 and carved a huge swath through the entire State of South Carolina.
Rough timeline prediction for Hurricane Hanna landfall is early Friday afternoon with the storm moving rapidly inland. Of course, place and time of landfall are extremely hard to predict but most of the computer models are in agreement on this one.
———————————-
HURRICANE HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
WHILE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS…WHAT’S LEFT SHOWS GOOD BANDING IN AGREEMENT WITH RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
THE PINE CAY SURFACE STATION IN THE CAICOS ISLAND SUGGESTS THAT THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO ABOUT 978 MB.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT…ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV…IS CLEARLY NOT MAKING IT INTO THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
EVEN SO…ONLY MODEST CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS UNTIL THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO REVERSE WHEN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THIS EVOLUTION…WHICH SHOULD CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR INTENSIFICATION.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LIES A LITTLE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ONE…AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE…WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS A LITTLE HIGHER AND THE STATISTICAL MODELS A LITTLE LOWER.
ONE SHOULD NOT INTERPOLATE A PRESUMED LANDFALL INTENSITY FROM THE 72 AND 96 HOUR FORECAST POINTS…AS SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 72 HOURS AND LANDFALL.
THERE HAS BEEN NO AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE THIS EVENING AND PRECISE LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT.
IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING…FIRST APPROACHING THE STATION AT PINE CAY BUT IN RECENT HOURS MOVING AWAY AS THE WINDS AT THAT STATION HAVE INCREASED TO 58 MPH IN THE LAST HOUR.
WITH NO DEFINITIVE TREND YET ESTABLISHED…THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE STATIONARY.
HANNA IS CURRENTLY BLOCKED BY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES…BUT THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD.
AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS…A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR HANNA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET…THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS REMARKABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF.
THE UKMET STILL IS THE LEFT-MOST OUTLIER…SHOWING MORE OF A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION INITIALLY AND A TRACK CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 18Z UKMET SHOWS LESS OF THIS INITIAL SOUTHWESTWARD JUMP THAN THE FULL RUN FROM 12Z.
HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 21.8N 72.5W 70 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 21.8N 72.8W 75 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 22.0N 73.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 22.8N 74.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 24.0N 75.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 28.0N 78.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 34.0N 80.5W 65 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 07/0000Z 41.5N 77.0W 30 KT…REMNANT LOW
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:23 am
NHC Computer Models Hurricane Hanna Projected Path
The National Hurricane Center is now saying that Hanna could be a major Category 3 hurricane at landfall on the South Carolina coast.
HURRICANE HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008
CONVENTIONAL AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE HANNA HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WHILE MAINTAINING A PRONOUNCED EYE FEATURE IN A 02/203Z AMSU OVERPASS.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 KT AND T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB…RESPECTIVELY.
THEREFORE…THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/02 KT. LATEST SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT HANNA COULD STILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD.
HOWEVER…ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PINCH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF HANNA DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS…WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SLOW NORTH AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
BY 48-72 HOURS…THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF HANNA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH 96 HOURS…WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A FASTER FORWARD NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO GENERALLY EXTEND EAST-WEST BETWEEN 32-24N LATITUDE…AND THE EXACT TRACK OF HANNA WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE CYCLONE MOVES DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS…AND ALSO HOW STRONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WILL BE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.
HANNA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA…AFTER WHICH IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST.
AN APPROXIMATE 84-HOUR POSITION WOULD BE NEAR 31.3N 80.2W.
HANNA HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED INNER-CORE STRUCTURE BASED ON THE 0202Z AMSU OVERPASS…AND ANOTHER CDO FEATURE WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD OF -80C TO -87C HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER SIMILAR TO THE THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.
THE CURRENT 30-KT NORTHERLY SHEAR PATTERN IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT WITH LESS THAN 15 KT OF SHEAR AT 72-96 HOURS.
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL…STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY …AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HANNA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY…OR AT LEAST REMAIN STEADY…UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS BETWEEN 84 AND 96 HOURS…RATHER THAN APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING LIKE SOME AUTOMATIC INTENSITY PLOTTING SOFTWARE MAY SHOW.
IN FACT…BY 84 HOURS HANNA COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE.
HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0900Z 21.3N 72.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 21.4N 73.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 22.0N 73.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 23.0N 74.3W 80 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 24.4N 75.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 28.7N 79.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 34.7N 80.7W 55 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 07/0600Z 42.5N 74.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
September 2nd, 2008 at 6:25 pm
Hurricane Hanna Track
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING HANNA CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED.
THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 850 MB WAS 66 KT WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 55 KT AT THE SURFACE. HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM.
BY TOMORROW…GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CUT OFF JUST WEST OF HANNA AND THEN DROP SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IF THIS EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES…AND ASSUMING HANNA IS ABLE TO FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR…THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR HANNA TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO…IN LINE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY MODELS.
HOWEVER…THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO IS COMPLEX…WHICH RESULTS IN LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT HANNA CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 150/02.
TRACK MODELS INSIST THAT HANNA WILL START ITS MUCH-ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST SOON…AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.
SUCH A TRACK WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
HANNA IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT MAKES ITS APPROACH TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER…UNTIL HANNA BEGINS A MORE DEFINITIVE MOTION…IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE POTENTIAL IMPACT AREA.
IN ADDITION…THE ANTICIPATED ANGLE OF APPROACH TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST MEANS THAN ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS IN BOTH TIME AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL.
IN FACT…THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE SHOWS THAT THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE ABOUT EQUAL AT EACH SPECIFIC LOCATION ALONG THE COAST FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 20.4N 72.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 20.9N 73.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 22.2N 74.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 23.5N 75.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 25.4N 77.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 30.5N 80.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 38.0N 78.0W 30 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 07/1800Z 47.0N 66.0W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
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September 2nd, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Hurricane Hanna Track – Latest Update
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008
THE LAST COUPLE OF FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT HANNA WAS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.
IT SEEMS THAT HANNA IS MAKING A SMALL COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
I HAVE TO GIVE SOME CREDIT TO THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS WHICH PREDICTED THIS LOOP A FEW DAYS AGO…HOWEVER THEY INDICATED THAT HANNA WOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WHEN IT OCCURRED.
SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED HANNA THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE…AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HANNA HAS WEAKENED EVEN MORE.
HOWEVER…WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 55 KT SINCE ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM AROUND 0600 UTC.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO SHEAR HANNA.
BUT…THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CUT-OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF HANNA VERY SOON…AND THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT THIS IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR.
AS THE UPPER-LOW CUTS-OFF IT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD WHICH SHOULD TURN THE UPPER-FLOW OVER THE STORM FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST…WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.
AT 96 HOURS…HANNA WAS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL STORM…BECAUSE IT IS PREDICTED TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND THERE COULD STILL BE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER WATER AT THAT TIME.
THE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST THAT HANNA WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON AS THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD…ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO BUILD WESTWARD.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO STEER HANNA ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD…BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL LOCATION…BUT THEREAFTER IT REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
AS A REMINDER…ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AS SMALL DEVIATIONS LEFT OR RIGHT WOULD HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON BOTH THE TIME AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL.
A G-IV MISSION WAS FLOWN THIS EVENING AND THE DATA GATHERED BY THIS AIRCRAFT SHOULD GET ASSIMILATED INTO THE 0000 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0300Z 20.5N 72.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 21.3N 72.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 22.8N 73.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 24.4N 75.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 26.4N 77.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 32.5N 80.5W 75 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 07/0000Z 41.0N 75.5W 35 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 08/0000Z 50.0N 60.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
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September 3rd, 2008 at 8:50 am
Hurricane Hanna Track
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008
FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE HANNA HAS ALMOST COMPLETED A TIGHT CYCLONIC LOOP AND IS NOW POSSIBLY TURNING SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DECREASED TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE…WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE 993 MB BASED ON A DROPSONDE REPORT THAT ALSO MEASURED 25-KT SURFACE WINDS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/02.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST REASONINGS.
HANNA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES…POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA.
IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTAINED UPPER-AIR DATA FROM DROPSONDES RELEASED AROUND HANNAFROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT…WHICH USUALLY PRODUCES BETTER TRACK FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL…WITH HANNA EXPECTED TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS BY 36 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS.
HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0900Z 20.2N 72.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 21.5N 72.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 23.2N 74.1W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 24.8N 76.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 27.2N 78.1W 75 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 33.7N 80.0W 70 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 07/0600Z 42.5N 71.5W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
120HR VT 08/0600Z 51.0N 55.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
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September 3rd, 2008 at 10:08 pm
Hurricane Hanna Track
Hurricane Hanna, or Hurricane Hannah as some like to spell it, is headed for the coast of North Carolina, but only as a Category 1 hurricane.
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008
HANNA HAS BEEN A TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE. SINCE ITS FORMATION IT HAS FOUGHT TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS…STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR AND THE EFFECTS OF LAND. FURTHERMORE…AT TIMES HANNA HAS RESEMBLED A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.
SURFACE AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS TONIGHT CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT HANNA HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR IS DECREASING AND HANNA IS DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THESE CHANGES IN THE UPPER FLOW OVER HANNA HAVE BEEN ACCURATELY FORECAST BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 55 KNOTS…AND IS BASED ON A 68 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASURED AS THE PLANE DEPARTED THE CYCLONE.
WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT…SOME INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HANNA IS FORECAST TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS IN A DAY OR TWO BUT IT COULD OCCUR EARLIER.
NONE OF THE GUIDANCE INTENSIFIES HANNA BEYOND 70 KNOTS.
THE CENTER HAS BEEN ROTATING AROUND A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE AND FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DATA FROM A NOAA BUOY SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/11.
SOME OF THIS MOTION COULD HAVE RESULTED FROM REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.
SINCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF HANNA…A NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH.
THE TRACK MODELS ARE NOT TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS NOT VERY HIGH.
HOWEVER…THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS HANNA MOVING OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
BECAUSE HANNA IS A LARGE CYCLONE…A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST EARLY THURSDAY.
A NOAA JET HAS SAMPLED THE ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT AND THE DATA IS BEING USED TO INITIALIZE THE 00Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0300Z 23.2N 72.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 24.7N 73.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 26.9N 75.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 29.3N 77.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 32.0N 79.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 39.5N 74.0W 50 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 08/0000Z 46.5N 63.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/0000Z 49.0N 47.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
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September 4th, 2008 at 9:03 am
Hurricane Hannah Projected Path
Latest update on projected path of Hurricane Hannah track from the National Hurricane Center shows that Hanna is a very large hurricane some 600 miles across, but a very weak one. Read the latest computer tracking models discussion and forecasted track update below.
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TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
LOOKS CAN CERTAINLY BE DECEIVING. HANNA HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING VERY MUCH DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AN EARLIER STRONG BURST DIED AFTER ABOUT 04Z…AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST CONTINUES TO IMPOSE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR.
NEVERTHELESS…HANNA HAS A LARGE AND ROBUST CIRCULATION…AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 990 MB.
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB HAVE BEEN AS STRONG AS 65 KT…AND NUMEROUS SFMR VALUES OF 55-60 KT HAVE BEEN RETRIEVED.
I HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO DISCOUNT THE SFMR WINDS…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.
GIVEN THAT THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO PERSIST OVER HANNA EVEN AS IT GAINS LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…STRENGTHENING WOULD AT FIRST GLANCE SEEM UNLIKELY.
CONSISTENT WITH THAT THINKING…THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR EVEN SOME WEAKENING…EXCEPT MUCH LATER WHEN HANNA BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
ON THE OTHER HAND…THE SHIPS AND LGEM…DESPITE DIAGNOSING LITTLE CHANGE IN SHEAR…FORECAST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS.
A CONSENSUS OF THESE VARIOUS MODELS WOULD YIELD A FLAT 60 KT INTENSITY FORECAST UNTIL HANNA PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE CAROLINAS…BUT FOR CONTINUITY AND SINCE HANNA IS ALREADY PRODUCING WINDS JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH….65 KT IS STILL SHOWN EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST AS HANNA ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
DESPITE HAVING AIRCRAFT FIXES…THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAGE…PROBABLY DUE TO THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION…BUT THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/10.
HANNA SHOULD ROUND THE BUILDING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND ROUGHLY HUG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES…BUT PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG THE WAY.
PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO THE BENEFIT OF DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET MISSION LAST NIGHT…THE LATEST MODEL TRACKS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE TIGHTER AGREEMENT…AND IN GENERAL THEY HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE…TO BE CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS.
AS ALWAYS…ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST OF THE CENTER…ESPECIALLY SINCE MUCH OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA IS WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0900Z 24.0N 72.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 25.3N 74.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 27.5N 76.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 30.3N 78.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 33.5N 78.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 41.0N 72.5W 50 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 08/0600Z 48.5N 59.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/0600Z 51.5N 41.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
——————————————————–
Hurricane Hanna 8:00 a.m. – Latest Update
AT 800 AM AST…1200Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES…455 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 760 MILES…1220 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.
HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF HANNA WILL PASS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY…AND WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER…RAINS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA WILL REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES…465 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB…29.20 INCHES.
September 4th, 2008 at 11:58 am
Hurricane Hannah Track – Latest Path Update
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TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31…CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
…CORRECT STATUS AT 48 AND 72 HR…
VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS CHOKING OFF CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE OF HANNA…AND THE CYCLONE HAS A VERY SUBTROPICAL APPEARANCE.
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS HAVE COME DOWN AS WELL.
BASED ON SOME 52 KT SFMR WINDS AROUND 11Z…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING RIGHT NOW…WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND POOR THERMODYNAMICS.
THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT DRY AIR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE UP TO LANDFALL.
HOWEVER…AS HANNA AND THE UPPER LOW BEGIN TO SEPARATE SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS…INCLUDING THE GFS…SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL LESSEN SOMEWHAT.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION…AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW HANNA ATTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF…ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE IS LOWER.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/10.
THE FORECAST SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A DEEP LAYER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.
HANNA IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK IS REQUIRED.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BECAUSE THE BETTER PERFORMING MODELS THIS YEAR…NAMELY THE GFS AND GFDL…ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
BECAUSE OF THE LARGE…SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION…THE EXACT TRAJECTORY OF THE CENTER IS RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT.
HURRICANE HANNAH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/1500Z 24.5N 73.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 26.2N 75.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 28.7N 77.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 31.7N 78.2W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 35.4N 77.4W 55 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 07/1200Z 43.0N 69.5W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 08/1200Z 50.0N 54.0W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/1200Z 51.5N 37.5W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
September 4th, 2008 at 8:07 pm
Hurricane Hannah Track – Latest Tracking Projected Path
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING HANNA IS FINDING THE CIRCULATION CENTER AT 850 MB DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MEAN CENTER OF ROTATION APPARENT IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES.
THERE ARE ALSO MULTIPLE SWIRLS…BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS JUMPED A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY.
ALTHOUGH A COUPLE MORE SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE…THE ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME…THAT IS…MORE ALONG THE TRACK…AND THEN HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON THE TRACK.
THE BASIC FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT LEFTWARD SHIFT…AND IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
RECONNAISSANCE DATA THUS FAR DO NOT SUPPORT ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AIR IMPINGING ON HANNA FROM THE SOUTHEAST…AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH A LITTLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL…NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODELS NOW MAKE HANNA A HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW TOPS OUT AT 60 KT.
HURRICANE WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT HANNA BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST…AND PEOPLE ARE REMINDED THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A MINIMAL HURRICANE.
HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 25.5N 75.0W 55 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 27.2N 76.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 30.3N 78.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 33.9N 78.3W 60 KT…ON THE COAST
48HR VT 06/1800Z 37.5N 76.5W 50 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 07/1800Z 46.0N 65.5W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 08/1800Z 51.0N 50.0W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/1800Z 52.5N 32.5W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
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September 5th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
Hurricane Hannah Path – Latest Projected Path
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE REPORTED TWO AREAS OF WIND OF ABOUT 65 KT.
HOWEVER…DROPSONDE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE SFMR ESTIMATES WERE A LITTLE TOO HIGH.
THE MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 75 KT ABOUT 75 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE LAST REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 984 MB…UP A LITTLE FROM THIS MORNING.
BASED ON ALL THIS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE METEOROLOGICALLY BETWEEN A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM AND A 65-KT HURRICANE.
THE MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT WOBBLY 360/17…WITH A RE-ANALYSIS OF AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTING THIS MOTION BEGAN JUST AFTER THE 11Z AIRCRAFT FIX.
HANNA IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERLIES IN 24-36 HR.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION.
ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO…AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AMONGST THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE STILL ISSUES FOR HANNA…AND SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.
HOWEVER…THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A CONVECTIVE BURST COULD CAUSE THE STORM TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HR.
THE GFS AND UKMET CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DEEPENING AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 96 AND 120 HR FORECASTS.
HURRICANE HANNAH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 30.8N 78.7W 60 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 33.2N 78.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 36.7N 76.8W 50 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 07/0600Z 40.7N 72.4W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 07/1800Z 44.5N 65.6W 40 KT…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 08/1800Z 50.0N 47.5W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 09/1800Z 51.0N 30.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 10/1800Z 52.5N 14.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
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