Tropical Storm Ike – The 2008 hurricane season is really heating up with Tropical Storm Ike following close behind hurricanes Gustav and Hannah towards the U.S.
The latest projected path for Ike is straight towards the Dominican Republic and the National Hurricane Center computer models below predict Ike to be a hurricane Wednesday.
Tropical Storm Ike is the ninth named storm of the 2008 hurricane season and could really cause some major damage when Hurricane Ike reaches Florida.
National Hurricane Center projected path forecast:
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH AND THE LOW SHEAR…IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE HWRF. THE LATTER MAKES IKE AN INTENSE HURRICANE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.
And that’s the latest news about Tropical Storm Ike.
Tags: hurricane ike, hurricane ike 2008, national hurricane center, tropical storm ike, tropical storm ike 2008, ts ike
September 1st, 2008 at 7:14 pm
[...] admin wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptTropical Storm Ike – The 2008 hurricane season is really heating up with Tropical Storm Ike following close behind hurricanes Gustav and Hannah towards the U.S. The latest projected path for Ike is straight towards the Dominican Republic and the National Hurricane Center computer models below predict Ike to be a hurricane Wednesday. Tropical Storm Ike is the ninth [...] [...]
September 1st, 2008 at 10:32 pm
Hurricane Ike Projected Path Latest Update
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE.
HOWEVER…THE BANDING FEATURE OVER THE EAST SEMICIRCLE HAS ERODED A BIT…PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
REGARDLESS…DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
THE INTENSITY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A CLIMATOLOGICAL STRENGTHENING RATE WITH TIME…AND SUGGEST THAT IKE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THERE IS HOWEVER A LITTLE DIVERGENCE IN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING BEYOND 48 HOURS.
BOTH THE GFDL AND THE HWRF INTENSIFY IKE INTO A POWERFUL HURRICANE WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 275/12…WITHIN IN THE DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST…THE UKMET IS THE ONLY GLOBAL MODEL OUTSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE CLUSTER AND INDICATES A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5…WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD MOTION.
THE UKMET TRACK IS MORE THAN LIKELY DUE TO A DIFFERENCE IN THE POSITION OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. CREATED BY A SLOWER MOVING HURRICANE HANNA.
ACCORDINGLY…THE NHC FORECAST IS WEIGHED MORE HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE MODELS THAT SUGGEST A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 18.0N 41.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 18.5N 43.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 19.2N 46.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 49.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 20.8N 52.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 22.0N 59.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 22.0N 65.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 22.0N 71.0W 90 KT
September 3rd, 2008 at 10:07 pm
Hurricane Ike Path – Latest Track Update
Ike is now a Category 3 hurricane and projected to reach Category 4 strength Thursday.
Latest track update shows Ike curving up through the Bahamas toward southern Florida on Tuesday as a Category 4 hurricane.
HURRICANE IKE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY OF IKE.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.
SPECIAL CLASSIFICATION PERFORMED BY TAFB AND SAB BOTH YIELD T-NUMBERS OF 5.5.
IN FACT…THE DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND RAW ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN ABOUT 6.0-6.5 DURING THE LAST 2-3 HOURS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE INCREASED TO 100 KT…MAKING IKE A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD…BUT AS WITH ALL INTENSE HURRICANES…SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST…AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE WIND RADII.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0000Z 21.7N 53.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 22.6N 55.1W 110 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 23.8N 57.9W 115 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 24.3N 60.4W 115 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 23.8N 63.1W 110 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 22.5N 68.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 22.5N 72.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 08/1800Z 23.5N 76.0W 115 KT
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September 3rd, 2008 at 10:25 pm
Hurricane Ike Track – Latest Projected Path
Ike is now a Category 4 hurricane.
Latest track update shows Hurricane Ike headed for south Florida.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008
IKE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS EVENING. AN EYE BECAME APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHORTLY AFTER 2100 UTC.
SINCE THAT TIME THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT WITH A RING OF VERY COLD CLOUDS TOPS SURROUNDING IT.
THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS WERE T6.0 AND RAW ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE AVERAGED T6.2 SINCE 2045 UTC.
BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT…MAKING IKE A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO…THIS WILL LARGELY BE CONTROLLED BY EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.
HOWEVER BOTH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HOW AN INTENSE HURRICANE LIKE IKE WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS SHEAR.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SOME WEAKENING BETWEEN 24-72 HOURS DUE TO THE SHEAR…BUT NOT AS MUCH AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
AT DAYS 4 AND 5…IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE SO RE-STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AT THAT TIME.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/15.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE…AND THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY RESPOND BY TURNING IKE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
THE LINGERING QUESTION THAT REMAINS AT THE LONGER RANGE IS WHEN IKE WILL MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
THE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS QUITE LARGE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
THE GFDL IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A TRACK NEAR HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA…WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW A POSITION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
FOR NOW…THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS BETWEEN THESE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF…THE 12Z ECMWF…AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0300Z 22.1N 54.1W 115 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 23.1N 56.2W 115 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 24.0N 58.7W 105 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 24.3N 61.0W 105 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 23.8N 63.6W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 22.5N 68.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 22.5N 72.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 24.0N 75.5W 115 KT
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September 4th, 2008 at 9:13 am
Hurricane Ike Track
Latest computer models track forecast discussion from the National Hurricane Center has Ike as a very strong Category 4 hurricane and heading for south Florida while carving up the Bahamas on the way.
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HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER…WITH THE EYE EMBEDDED IN EVEN COLDER CLOUD TOPS THAN BEFORE.
THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 6.5 WHICH SUPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF 125 KT…AND THIS IS USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY.
IN SUCH INTENSE HURRICANES…FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER-CORE EVOLUTIONS SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT.
HOWEVER…THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS OVER 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ON IKE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.
THIS LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCE SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING…AND THAT IS WHAT IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST.
LATER ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS PROBABLE AS THE SHEAR WEAKENS AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE BUT IT REFLECTS OUR LACK OF SKILL IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY IN 3-5 DAYS.
IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR AROUND 290/15. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR FORECAST REASONING.
A DEEP-LAYER HIGH IS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS WOULD LIKELY CAUSE THE HEADING OF IKE TO BEND WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IT IS EXPECTED THAT IKE WILL HAVE PASSED THE CENTER OF THE HIGH…AND TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST.
THE BIG QUESTIONS IS HOW THE HURRICANE RESPONDS TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AROUND DAY 5.
LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS IN THIS TIME FRAME…WE SEE THAT THE ECMWF IS THE WESTERNMOST AND THE GFS IS THE NORTHEASTERNMOST.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THIS IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN 4- AND 5-DAY TRACK FORECASTS…IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT LAND AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THIS HURRICANE.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0900Z 22.7N 55.8W 125 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 23.5N 57.7W 125 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 24.0N 60.2W 115 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 24.0N 62.6W 110 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 23.4N 64.9W 110 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 22.5N 69.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 23.0N 73.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 76.5W 115 KT
—————————————-
Hurricane Ike – Latest Update
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/HR…AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS INTENSIFIED SOME MORE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 145 MPH…230 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
IT IS EXPECTED THAT IKE WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR OR CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM.
September 4th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Hurricane Ike Track Update
Latest computer models forecast track discussion from the National Hurricane Center.
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hurricane ike track, hurricane ike tracking, ike path, ike track, computer models, spaghetti models, projected path
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
IKE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL.
HOWEVER THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW ASYMMETRIC DUE TO SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE BIT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 120 KT.
GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER IKE AND KEEP STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING.
IN ADDITION…INNER-CORE EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR…WHICH COULD WEAKEN IKE AS WELL.
IN THE LONGER-TERM…THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.
HOWEVER…DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF IKE…THE HURRICANE COULD BE IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THAT HAVE BEEN STIRRED UP BY HANNA.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT STILL SHOWS IKE AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD…AT ABOUT 290/14…A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
A BEND TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST SEEMS PROBABLE AS A HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHWEST OF IKE.
THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR FIRST PART OF THIS FORECAST WITH THE MODELS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT.
THE MODELS HAVE SPLIT INTO TWO GENERAL CAMPS THIS MORNING.
THE UKMET/GFS/HWRF ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE INITIALLY…THEN SHOW LESS OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS…COMPRISED OF THE NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFDN/GFDL…SHOW A FASTER TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AND SUGGEST MORE OF A THREAT TO THE BAHAMAS.
WITH CREDIBLE MODELS IN EACH GROUP…IT IS PROBABLY BEST TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR A BIAS-CORRECTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN 4- AND 5-DAY TRACK FORECASTS…IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT LAND AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THIS HURRICANE.
HOWEVER INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD BE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF IKE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/1500Z 23.2N 57.0W 120 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 23.8N 58.9W 115 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 24.0N 61.3W 110 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 23.6N 63.8W 105 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 23.0N 66.7W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 22.5N 71.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 23.5N 74.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 09/1200Z 25.5N 77.5W 105 KT
September 4th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
Hurricane Ike Track – Latest Projected Path
Latest computer models forecast track discussion from the National Hurricane Center.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF IKE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
IKE IS MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE…THOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME IN THE EYEWALL RECENTLY.
IT IS INTERESTING THAT WHILE IKE STARTED OUT AS A LARGE SYSTEM…THE CLOUD CANOPY HAS NOTICEABLY SHRUNK TODAY WITH FEW OUTER BANDS.
THERE HAS BEEN ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 115 KT.
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. IN FACT…THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THE SHEAR BY WEAKENING THIS SYSTEM TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE…THOUGH THE GFDL/HWRF ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER.
IN A COUPLE DAYS…VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND…COMBINED WITH RATHER WARM WATER WATERS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS…SHOULD RESULT IN RESTRENGTHENING.
THE HURRICANE’S EXACT TRACK IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT COULD BE IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS UPWELLED BY HANNA.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12…SLOWER THAN BEFORE AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.
RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE…CAUSING A WEST…AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION OF IKE BY LATE TOMORROW.
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHEN AN EVENTUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR IN THE LONG-RANGE.
THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE WESTWARD SHIFT IN ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY…WITH THE GFDL/ECMWF EVEN TAKING THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CUBA.
THE OTHER MODELS ARE PRETTY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK NEAR OR THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE HWRF MODEL.
ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS BECAUSE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THOSE TIMES.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 23.6N 58.2W 115 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 23.9N 60.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 23.7N 62.5W 95 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 23.2N 65.1W 95 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 22.7N 67.7W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 22.5N 72.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 24.0N 76.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 25.5N 79.0W 110 KT
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September 5th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Hurricane Ike Track – Latest Projected Path
Latest computer models forecast and Hurricane Ike track discussion from the National Hurricane Center.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS PERFORMED THE FIRST PENETRATIONS ON IKE AND HAS CONFIRMED THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 109 KT WERE RECORDED…ALONG WITH SFMR WINDS OF 94 KT…PLUS A DROPSONDE SUGGESTED WINDS OF AT LEAST 95 KT.
A CONSENSUS OF ALL DATA SOURCES SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 100 KT…SO THIS VALUE WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
SOME WEAKENING COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SHEAR.
HOWEVER THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE TOMORROW…AND SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING…PERHAPS RAPID…BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE…SHOWING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH LGEM MODEL EARLY ON…AND IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF THEREAFTER.
A BIG UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IKE’S POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH CUBA OR FLORIDA…WHICH COULD WEAKEN THE HURRICANE MORE THAN SHOWN BELOW.
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION OF ABOUT 255/13.
A GRADUAL BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR SO AS RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF IKE WEAKENS SOMEWHAT.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST SOME SORT OF WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA IN A FEW DAYS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WEAKNESS MAY ALLOW A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TURN OF THE HURRICANE.
GENERALLY…THE MODELS THAT ARE SHOWING THE NORTHERNMOST TRACKS…SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS…ARE THE ONES WEAKENING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH FASTER.
THE MODELS WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS…SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFDL…SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE.
OVERALL…MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH…AND I’M GOING TO CONTINUE TO LEAN THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST…THE FORECAST COULD BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OR WEST LATER TONIGHT.
IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS…AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 22.9N 64.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 66.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 22.2N 68.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 22.1N 71.3W 100 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 22.2N 73.7W 110 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 78.2W 115 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.5N 81.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 25.5N 83.0W 115 KT
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September 6th, 2008 at 8:39 am
Hurricane Ike Projected Path – Latest Forecast Track Update
Ike looks to be headed for northern coast of Cuba, then ripping the Florida Keys with some Category 3 hurricane winds before turning northwest into the Gulf of Mexico in the general direction of New Orleans.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECORDED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 104 KT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND AN SFMR PEAK WIND OF 96 KT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE.
BASED ON THESE DATA…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT.
THE AIRCRAFT METEOROLOGIST ALSO INDICATED THAT IKE HAS A CLOSED 24 NM DIAMETER EYE.
A DROPSONDE WITHIN THE EYE MEASURED 983 MB BUT THAT WAS WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 16 KT.
AS A COMPROMISE…THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO 982 MB.
ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY SHEAR SEEMS TO BE PERSISTING OVER THE CYCLONE…IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AS MUCH AS IT WAS PREVIOUSLY.
INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS…WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE IKE MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT NOW DEPICTS SOME WEAKENING AS IKE TRAVERSES THE CUBAN COAST.
OF COURSE…ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WILL EITHER ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING OVER WATER OR A LONGER PERIOD OF WEAKENING OVER LAND.
LATER ON…CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 255/14…WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW OF A STRONG RIDGE DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS…THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA…AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHICH WILL CAUSE IKE TO MOVE IN A MORE WESTWARD FASHION.
AFTERWARD…GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE EXTENSION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF/STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL ERODE JUST ENOUGH TO INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE IKE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA.
IN FACT…THE TWO HURRICANE MODELS ACTUALLY BRING THE CYCLONE OVER THE ISLAND IN 36 HOURS.
WITHOUT QUESTION…THE PARTICULAR TRACK THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE SUGGESTING COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON IKE’S INTENSITY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS ADJUSTED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO COMPENSATE FOR THE WESTWARD-SHIFTING MODEL TREND.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 22.4N 67.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 22.1N 69.0W 100 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 21.8N 71.6W 100 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 21.6N 74.1W 105 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 21.8N 76.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 80.5W 90 KT…NEAR COAST OF CUBA
96HR VT 10/0600Z 24.5N 83.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 11/0600Z 26.0N 85.5W 110 KT
September 6th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Hurricane Ike Track Update – Latest Projected Path
Ike is headed for northern coast of Cuba, then curving northwest into the Gulf of Mexico in the general direction of New Orleans.
It’s too early to tell just where Ike will make landfall along the Gulf Coast. It could be anywhere from the Florida Panhandle all the way to Texas.
Here is the official forecast discussion:
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008
HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW SUGGEST ABOUT 95 KT.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATER TODAY…AND IKE IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE COOLER WATERS UPWELLED BY HANNA.
SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT-TERM AND IKE COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY TOMORROW.
IKE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR VERY CUBA DURING THE 36-72 HR TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING.
THE DEGREE OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW CLOSE IKE TRACKS TO LAND.
BY DAY 4…IKE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE BACK OVER OPEN WATERS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN SHOULD BE PLENTY WARM.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR IKE TO RESTRENGTHEN AT 96 AND 120 HR.
GIVEN THE EVOLVING ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND LAND INTERACTIONS…THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE.
IKE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AND THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 255/15.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN WESTWARD.
IN 3 TO 4 DAYS…A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE’S EVENTUAL TRACK AT THE EXTENDED RANGES.
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS AT THIS TIME…WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE PASSING SUFFICIENTLY FAR TO THE NORTH TO KEEP IKE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD…WHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW IKE TURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS.
IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO COMMIT TO EITHER ONE OF THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS…AND THUS THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 21.9N 68.8W 95 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 21.4N 70.4W 95 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 21.2N 72.9W 100 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 21.2N 75.4W 105 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 77.6W 95 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 81.5W 80 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 10/1200Z 24.5N 84.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 26.0N 86.0W 100 KT
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September 6th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
Hurricane Ike Path – Latest Projected Path
It is still much to soon to make predictions of Hurrcane Ike’s exact landfall on the Gulf Coast.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IKE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS AGAIN INTENSIFIED.
THE PLANE REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 118 KT AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 129 KT.
ADDITIONALLY…CALCULATIONS FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 110 KT.
BASED ON THESE DATA…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT.
WITH THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER IKE NOW RELAXING AND THE WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WARM…ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL IKE REACHES CUBA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
ONCE OVER LAND…WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE CYCLONE EMERGES BACK OVER WATER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
HOWEVER…ONLY A
SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER AND LESS WEAKENING COULD OCCUR.
SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE DEPARTS CUBA SINCE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
IKE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 255/13.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN WESTWARD.
IN 3 TO 4 DAYS…AS IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO…A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE’S EVENTUAL TRACK AT THE EXTENDED RANGES.
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS…WITH THE GFDL MODEL SHOWING IKE TURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS…WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE BYPASSING IKE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
IT IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO COMMIT TO EITHER ONE OF THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS…AND ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/2100Z 21.4N 69.7W 115 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 21.2N 71.6W 120 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 21.1N 74.0W 125 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 21.2N 76.5W 120 KT…INLAND OVER CUBA
48HR VT 08/1800Z 21.7N 78.7W 95 KT…INLAND OVER CUBA
72HR VT 09/1800Z 23.0N 82.5W 80 KT…INLAND OVER CUBA
96HR VT 10/1800Z 25.0N 85.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 26.5N 87.0W 100 KT
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September 6th, 2008 at 8:18 pm
Hurricane Ike Track – Latest Computer Model
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008
…CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHING THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS…
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS…INCLUDING THE ACKLINS…CROOKED ISLAND…THE INAGUAS…MAYAGUANA…AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS…AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS…INCLUDING CAT ISLAND…THE EXUMAS…LONG ISLAND…RUM CAY…AND SAN SALVADOR. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO…SANTIAGO DE CUBA…AND HOLGUIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS AND CAMAGUEY.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS…CUBA…SOUTH FLORIDA…AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
AT 800 PM AST…0000Z…THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES…105 KM …EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
IKE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…18 KM/HR. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IKE SHOULD RESUME A TRACK BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH…24 KM/HR TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK…THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHORTLY…AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
IKE SHOULD THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH…215 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS PERIOD.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB…27.96 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF THE CENTER OF IKE.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION…21.3 N…70.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…947 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.
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September 6th, 2008 at 11:10 pm
Hurricane Ike Latest Computer Model – Projected Path
Ike to become a large hurricane again in the Gulf of Mexico and looks to be headed toward Texas after most recent computer model updat of storm track. As always, projected paths for days 4 and 5 are always subject to a wide error range that averages 300 miles.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 947 MB AND SURFACE WINDS OF 114 KNOTS ON ITS LAST PENETRATION BEFORE RETURNING TO BASE A FEW HOURS AGO.
ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK IKE AROUND 6 UTC. SINCE THEN…SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISTINCT EYE AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OR AT LEAST TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL IKE REACHES EASTERN CUBA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER…IKE WILL BE MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA FOR ABOUT TWO DAYS. THIS MOST CERTAINLY WILL CAUSE SOME WEAKENING.
HOWEVER…ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER AND THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING PERHAPS WILL NOT OCCUR.
ONCE IKE MOVES OUT OF CUBA…AND MOVE TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO IT COULD REGAIN SOME OF THE FORMER INTENSITY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
IT INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE HWRF MAKES IKE AN INTENSE HURRICANE AGAIN…AND GLOBAL MODELS…PRIMARILY THE GFS…MAKE IKE A VERY LARGE HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
IKE HESITATED A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY BUT IT HAS RESUMED ITS WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREE HEADING AT 13 KNOTS.
THE HURRICANE STILL HAS 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD…SO A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
BY THEN…IKE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER WESTERN CUBA…TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED…THEREFORE I HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST…BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KNOW IF IKE WILL MOVE OVER CUBA OR OVER WATER SINCE CUBA IS LONG BUT NARROW.
HOWEVER…I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS…THERE WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE MOST OF THE TIMES…THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPTION.
UNANIMOUSLY…TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TONIGHT AND I HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0300Z 21.2N 70.9W 115 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 21.0N 73.0W 120 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 75.5W 125 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 21.0N 78.0W 95 KT…INLAND OVER CUBA
48HR VT 09/0000Z 21.7N 80.0W 80 KT…INLAND OVER CUBA
72HR VT 10/0000Z 23.5N 83.5W 85 KT…OVER WATER
96HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W 100 KT
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September 7th, 2008 at 9:34 am
Hurricane Ike Computer Model – Ike Projected Path Update
Ike will slam into Cuba’s north shore with powerful Category 4 winds. The good news is that Ike will weaken considerably by going inland over Cuba.
Here’s a satellite view of Ike approaching Cuba:
The bad news is that conditions in the Gulf of Mexico in three to five days are conducive to restrengthening to at least a category 3 hurricane and Ike could be headed toward Houston, Texas.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008
THE EYE OF IKE PASSED DIRECTLY OVER THE TURKS ISLANDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AN AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SITE IN THE TURKS ISLANDS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 99 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 975.3 MB AT 0300 UTC. NO ADDITIONAL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM THAT STATION.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 948 MB AND A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL OF 121 KT. THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 115 KT.
IKE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INTIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/13.
IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN HAS BEGUN. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED…AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO…BEFORE TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS A LITTLE.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED ITS SOUTHWARD SHIFTS.
IN FACT…BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD…PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE ADDITIONAL DATA PROVIDED BY THE G-IV DROPSONDE MISSION LAST EVENING.
DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS…UKMET…AND ECMWF ALONG THE LEFT OR SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE…WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON THE RIGHT SIDE.
THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
IT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE 36 HOURS…AND THEREAFTER IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER OF IKE NEAR THE ISLAND OF CUBA.
THEREAFTER…THE INTENSITY IS DEPENDANT ON HOW LONG IKE INTERACTS WITH LAND.
WITH THE NEW TRACK FORECAST UP THE MIDDLE OF THE ISLAND…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADIVSORY.
ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF…CONIDITIONS APPREAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING…SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY INTENSIFICATION AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0900Z 21.1N 72.2W 115 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 21.0N 74.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 21.2N 76.6W 125 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 08/1800Z 21.8N 79.0W 85 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 09/0600Z 22.5N 81.1W 65 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 10/0600Z 24.5N 84.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 26.0N 87.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 12/0600Z 27.0N 89.5W 100 KT
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September 7th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Hurricane Ike Tracking – Ike Projected Path
Hurricane Ike to weaken significantly over Cuba.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB AT 1100 UTC WHICH WAS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FIXES.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 115 KT. A RECENT SSMI OVERPASS INDICATES THAT AN OUTER RAINBAND COULD BE FORMING AN OUTER EYEWALL.
HOWEVER… EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES…INCLUDING THEIR IMPACTS ON INTENSITY…ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS…EITHER UP OR DOWN…IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT.
ONCE INLAND…WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT THE DEGREE OF WEAKENING DEPENDS ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND.
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR APPROXIMATELY 36 HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN.
HOWEVER…ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER.
IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.
SINCE THE WATERS OVER THE GULF ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE HIGH…RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.
IKE IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/13.
IKE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
IN 2-3 DAYS…A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IKE’S FORWARD SPEED.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.
ONLY THE HWRF MODEL SHOWS ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS MATERIALIZING TO TURN IKE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.
SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FLOWN BY THE NOAA G-IV…AND THIS DATA…ALONG WITH SPECIAL SOUNDINGS FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES…ARE PROVIDING ENHANCED DATA INTO THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/1500Z 21.0N 73.4W 115 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 75.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 21.4N 77.6W 85 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.2N 79.9W 70 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 81.8W 65 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 10/1200Z 24.5N 85.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 26.0N 87.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 27.0N 90.5W 100 KT
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September 7th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
Hurricane Ike Path – Latest Update From NOAA NHC
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008
AT 200 PM EDT…1800Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 74.0 WEST OR JUST WEST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 90 MILES…155 KM…EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH…21 KM/HR.
A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
ON THIS TRACK…THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT…AND NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA LATE MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH…215 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES…230 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB…28.02 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA…AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION…20.9 N…74.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…949 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
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September 7th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Hurricane Ike Track – Tracking Computer Model Update
How strong a Hurricane Ike is in the Gulf of Mexico depends on how much it interacts with Cuba.
A small deviation northward will mean a stronger Ike.
Longer over mountainous Cuba will mean a weaker Ike.
However, if Ike continues on track for Texas, there is time for significant strengthening.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008
THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INDICATES THAT IKE HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE. THE PLANE FOUND A PEAK SFMR OF 91 KT AND 107 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL.
AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE SUGGESTED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 100 KT BUT THE DROP MAY NOT HAVE SAMPLED THE HIGHEST WINDS.
WHILE THESE OBSERVATIONS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY LOWER INTENSITY…THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FELL TO 945 MB…AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED ONLY TO 105 KT.
A RECENT SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES AND REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRM THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL HAS FORMED…BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL COMPLETE PRIOR TO IKE REACHING CUBA.
ACCORDINGLY…SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
ONCE INLAND OVER CUBA…WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW LONG THE CENTER STAYS OVER LAND.
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR APPROXIMATELY 24-36 HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN.
HOWEVER…ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OR THE SOUTH COULD RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER.
IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS WHERE THE WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW.
IKE’S POTENTIAL FOR RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DEPEND ON ITS STRUCTURE ONCE IT EMERGES FROM CUBA.
IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/12.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH WEAKENS.
IN 2-3 DAYS…A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IN IKE’S FORWARD SPEED.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE TROUGH BYPASSING IKE TO THE NORTH WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE.
THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT LEFT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.
HOWEVER…ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS TOO MUCH ON SMALL CHANGES IN THE TRACK…AND IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/2100Z 21.1N 74.6W 105 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 21.2N 76.5W 100 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 08/1800Z 21.7N 78.8W 85 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 09/0600Z 22.4N 80.8W 70 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 09/1800Z 23.2N 82.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 24.5N 85.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 26.0N 88.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 91.0W 100 KT
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September 7th, 2008 at 11:28 pm
Hurricane Ike Path – Latest Update Computer Model Predictions
Hurricane Ike makes landfall in Cuba.
Much uncertainty remains over Ike’s path in the Gulf of Mexico.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008
SATELLITE AND CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IKE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 0145 UTC NEAR CABO LUCRECIA.
SATELLITE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTED THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT OCCURRED SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL BUT IMAGES FROM THE GRAN PIEDRA RADAR IN CUBA SUGGESTED THAT THE INNER EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI WAS STILL INTACT AS THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST.
SFMR AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MISSION INDICATE THAT IKE PROBABLY RE-STRENGTHENED TO 110-115 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN EASTERN CUBA.
REGARDLESS…WEAKENING IS NOW EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE LANDMASS OF CUBA.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL…TO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OVER WATER SOONER THAN EXPECTED.
ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO…THE COMBINATION OF WARM WATERS AND FAIRLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING….HOWEVER THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH THE HURRICANE WILL INTENSIFY IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.
INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/11. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR TO THE FORECAST REASONING.
THE STEERING CURRENT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TRACK TO GRADUALLY BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…AND THE TRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED ON A TRACK ALONG MUCH OF CUBA.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…AFTER IKE IS PREDICTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO…SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT COULD TURN THE HURRICANE MORE NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER A NUMBER OF MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS OR A TURN.
SUFFICE TO SAY THAT IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0300Z 21.1N 75.8W 105 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 21.4N 77.6W 90 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 09/0000Z 22.1N 79.9W 80 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 09/1200Z 22.8N 81.7W 70 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 10/0000Z 23.6N 83.5W 80 KT…OVER WATER
72HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 86.4W 90 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 13/0000Z 28.0N 92.0W 100 KT
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September 8th, 2008 at 8:22 am
Hurricane Ike Computer Model – Ike Projected Path
Hurricane Ike is directly over Cuba.
Ike’s projected path in the Gulf of Mexico is toward north Texas coast, but the National Hurricane Center warns it’s still too early to predict exact landfall as computer model track variations are large.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IKE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL CUBA.
THE EYE IS STILL VISIBLE BUT THE EYEWALL IS NOW ENTIRELY OVER LAND AND ITS STRUCTURE HAS DEGRADED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90 KT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN SHOWS LESS WEAKENING OVER LAND THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL…IN THE EVENT THAT THE CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER SOONER THAN FORECAST.
IF IKE FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK IT WILL BE OVER LAND FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS…AND WOULD ALMOST SURELY BE WEAKER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THAN SHOWN HERE.
NEVERTHELESS…THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY CONDUCIVE TO RESTRENGTHENING WITH A VERY DIFLUENT LIGHT SHEAR UPPER WIND PATTERN AND WARM WATERS BELOW.
THE MAJOR UNKNOWN IS HOW DISRUPTED IKE WILL BE WHEN IT EMERGES.
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
IKE’S TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO BEND GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AS THE STORM NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS.
AFTER THAT…THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN CALLING FOR A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON DAYS 4-5.
THE GFDL AND HWRF…WHICH USE THE GFS FOR BOUNDARY CONDITIONS…MAY BE PICKING UP ON THAT AND SHOW A BEND TO THE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS…SUCH AS THE ECMWF…SHOW MUCH MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THOSE RANGES AND HAVE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.
EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL HAS PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH IKE SO FAR…I’VE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST THE TRACK EASTWARD GIVEN THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FIELDS IN THE GFS HAVE NO SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER MODELS.
IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0900Z 21.2N 77.3W 90 KT…INLAND
12HR VT 08/1800Z 21.6N 79.0W 75 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 09/0600Z 22.4N 81.2W 65 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 09/1800Z 23.1N 83.0W 60 KT…EMERGING INTO GULF
48HR VT 10/0600Z 23.9N 84.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 25.5N 87.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 27.0N 90.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 13/0600Z 28.5N 93.0W 100 KT
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