Hurricane Ike
Hurricane Ike – NHC computer models show Tropical Storm Ike becoming Hurricane Ike by Wednesday before slamming the Bahamas next weekend.
The latest projected path for Hurricane Ike 2008 is coming in high above the Caribbean and then slashing through the Bahamas on a traditional September track that’s produced some memorable hurricanes in the past.
The National Hurricane Center computer models predict Ike will reach Category 2 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale by Friday. It’s too soon to project landfall in the States, but Florida looks like a pretty good bet at this point because of the storm’s almost straight-line trajectory.
Ike is the ninth named storm of the 2008 hurricane season and could really cause some major damage in the Caribbean and Florida.
National Hurricane Center projected path forecast track is below. If the straight line track holds for a week, then the Miami area could be in for another Hurricane Andrew.
And that’s the latest update on Hurricane Ike.
Tags: huricane ike projected path, hurricane ike, national hurricane center
Hurricane Ike Approaching Landfall
Hurricane Ike strengthening right before landfall, which is expected about 1:00 a.m. CDT. Because the storm is so big and the eye is now 40 miles wide, the Galveston area will take a severe six-hour pounding as the eye passes directly over Galveston Island.
The National Hurricane Center is warning that the storm surge is always the most deadly part of a hurricane, not the strong winds.
Peak storm surge levels will occur just after Hurricane Ike makes landfall with Galveston Bay expected to experience a storm surge exceeding 25 feet.
Many coastal areas of Texas and Louisiana are already flooding as water levels have risen 9 feet ahead of Ike’s landfall. Galveston Island already has 12 feet of water in low-lying areas and the eye of Hurricane Ike is still 135 miles SouthEast of Galveston.
People who avoided warnings to evacuate low-lying areas are risking almost “certain death” according to forecasters.
Satellite view of Hurricane Ike late Friday evening in the Gulf of Mexico.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008
A PLETHORA OF DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS…NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT…AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS…AND A 40 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS BECOME PROMINENT.
THE LOWEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON HAS BEEN 952 MB.
DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL AT 6500 FT HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 114 KT…AND A DROPSONDE IN THAT SAME AREA MEASURED A PEAK WIND VALUE OF 116 KT.
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB HAVE RANGED FROM 103-105 KT…AND A RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 90 KT WAS MEASURED IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL AROUND 0140Z.
ALL OF THIS INFORMATION CORRESPONDS TO A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 95 KT.
THE LARGE EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS…BUT A GENERAL MOTION OF 315/10 SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN THE PREFERRED DIRECTION OF TRAVEL.
SHORT TERM EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE THE CENTER OF IKE ALONG GALVESTON ISLAND AND/OR THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER LANDFALL…IKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED EAST-WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TURN NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS…AND THEN RECURVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A FAST APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
BY 36-48 HOURS…IKE MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK…AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.
IKE STILL HAS ABOUT A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN INTO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE. EQUALLY IMPORTANT…HOWEVER…IS THE EFFECT THAT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HAVE ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
WIND DATA FROM LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES INDICATE THAT WINDS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH…115 KT OR 130 MPH …EXIST JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE.
THERE COULD BE A REPEAT OF DAMAGE TO WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE STRUCTURES SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED DURING HURRICANE ALICIA IN 1983.
THE PEAK WIND SPEED AND VARIOUS WIND RADII WERE HELD HIGHER THAN OUR INLAND WIND DECAY MODELS ARE PREDICTING DUE TO THE MUCH LARGER SIZE OF IKE.
ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL…THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER.
IN ADDITION…THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL.
WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN MORE THAN 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0300Z 28.6N 94.4W 95 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 30.3N 95.4W 70 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 14/0000Z 33.2N 95.3W 35 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 14/1200Z 36.6N 92.3W 30 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 15/0000Z 40.5N 86.0W 25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT 16/0000Z…ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE
BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…IKE WILL CREATE A STORM SURGE WELL IN EXCESS OF WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM OF ITS INTENSITY.
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Hurricane Ike Hits Galveston and Houston Hard
It remained unclear how many people may have perished as the worst of Ike was passing over the Houston-Galveston area. But even before daylight arrived, damage was considered extensive. Thousands of homes and government buildings flooded, roads were washed out, 2.9 million people lost power and several fires burned unabated as crews could not reach them.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008
THE 40 NM WIDE EYE OF IKE MADE LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST JUST AFTER 0700 UTC. AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY WAS 95 KT…CATEGORY 2 ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE LANDFALL PRESSURE WAS NEAR 952 MB.
THE STORM HAS NOT YET HAD TIME TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN…SO 95 KT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND…WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 48 HR AND BE ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE THEREAFTER.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER WOBBLY 325/11.
IKE IS ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES…AND IT SHOULD RECURVE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR.
ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO…WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED AFTER RECURVATURE.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
EVEN THOUGH IKE HAS MADE LANDFALL…IT REMAINS A VERY LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH EFFECTS FELT AT LONG DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER.
WATER LEVELS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS MAY CONTINUE TO RISE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY…HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR WELL INLAND NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF IKE.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0900Z 29.7N 95.0W 95 KT…INLAND
12HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 95.2W 65 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 14/0600Z 34.6N 93.9W 35 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 14/1800Z 38.6N 89.2W 30 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 15/0600Z 42.5N 81.0W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 16/0600Z…ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE INLAND
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