Hurricane Ike – NHC computer models show Tropical Storm Ike becoming Hurricane Ike by Wednesday before slamming the Bahamas next weekend.
The latest projected path for Hurricane Ike 2008 is coming in high above the Caribbean and then slashing through the Bahamas on a traditional September track that’s produced some memorable hurricanes in the past.
The National Hurricane Center computer models predict Ike will reach Category 2 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale by Friday. It’s too soon to project landfall in the States, but Florida looks like a pretty good bet at this point because of the storm’s almost straight-line trajectory.
Ike is the ninth named storm of the 2008 hurricane season and could really cause some major damage in the Caribbean and Florida.
National Hurricane Center projected path forecast track is below. If the straight line track holds for a week, then the Miami area could be in for another Hurricane Andrew.
And that’s the latest update on Hurricane Ike.
Tags: huricane ike projected path, hurricane ike, national hurricane center
September 1st, 2008 at 8:28 pm
[...] Read the rest of this great post here [...]
September 1st, 2008 at 10:15 pm
[...] Hurricane Ike 1 hour ago [...]
September 1st, 2008 at 10:31 pm
Hurricane Ike Projected Path Latest Update
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE.
HOWEVER…THE BANDING FEATURE OVER THE EAST SEMICIRCLE HAS ERODED A BIT…PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
REGARDLESS…DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
THE INTENSITY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A CLIMATOLOGICAL STRENGTHENING RATE WITH TIME…AND SUGGEST THAT IKE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THERE IS HOWEVER A LITTLE DIVERGENCE IN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING BEYOND 48 HOURS.
BOTH THE GFDL AND THE HWRF INTENSIFY IKE INTO A POWERFUL HURRICANE WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 275/12…WITHIN IN THE DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST…THE UKMET IS THE ONLY GLOBAL MODEL OUTSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE CLUSTER AND INDICATES A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5…WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD MOTION.
THE UKMET TRACK IS MORE THAN LIKELY DUE TO A DIFFERENCE IN THE POSITION OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. CREATED BY A SLOWER MOVING HURRICANE HANNA.
ACCORDINGLY…THE NHC FORECAST IS WEIGHED MORE HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE MODELS THAT SUGGEST A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 18.0N 41.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 18.5N 43.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 19.2N 46.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 49.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 20.8N 52.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 22.0N 59.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 22.0N 65.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 22.0N 71.0W 90 KT
September 2nd, 2008 at 7:19 am
[...] Hurricane Ike 7 hours ago [...]
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:20 am
[...] Hurricane Ike 13 hours ago [...]
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:17 pm
[...] Hurricane Ike 22 hours ago [...]
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:17 pm
[...] Hurricane Ike [...]
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:02 pm
[...] Hurricane Ike 12 hours ago [...]
September 3rd, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Hurricane Ike Path – Latest Track Update
Ike is now a Category 3 hurricane and projected to reach Category 4 strength Thursday.
Latest track update shows Ike curving up through the Bahamas toward southern Florida on Tuesday as a Category 4 hurricane.
HURRICANE IKE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY OF IKE.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.
SPECIAL CLASSIFICATION PERFORMED BY TAFB AND SAB BOTH YIELD T-NUMBERS OF 5.5.
IN FACT…THE DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND RAW ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN ABOUT 6.0-6.5 DURING THE LAST 2-3 HOURS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE INCREASED TO 100 KT…MAKING IKE A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD…BUT AS WITH ALL INTENSE HURRICANES…SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST…AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE WIND RADII.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0000Z 21.7N 53.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 22.6N 55.1W 110 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 23.8N 57.9W 115 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 24.3N 60.4W 115 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 23.8N 63.1W 110 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 22.5N 68.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 22.5N 72.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 08/1800Z 23.5N 76.0W 115 KT
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September 3rd, 2008 at 10:24 pm
Hurricane Ike Track – Latest Projected Path
Ike is now a Category 4 hurricane.
Latest track update shows Hurricane Ike headed for south Florida.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008
IKE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS EVENING. AN EYE BECAME APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHORTLY AFTER 2100 UTC.
SINCE THAT TIME THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT WITH A RING OF VERY COLD CLOUDS TOPS SURROUNDING IT.
THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS WERE T6.0 AND RAW ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE AVERAGED T6.2 SINCE 2045 UTC.
BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT…MAKING IKE A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO…THIS WILL LARGELY BE CONTROLLED BY EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.
HOWEVER BOTH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HOW AN INTENSE HURRICANE LIKE IKE WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS SHEAR.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SOME WEAKENING BETWEEN 24-72 HOURS DUE TO THE SHEAR…BUT NOT AS MUCH AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
AT DAYS 4 AND 5…IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE SO RE-STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AT THAT TIME.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/15.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE…AND THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY RESPOND BY TURNING IKE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
THE LINGERING QUESTION THAT REMAINS AT THE LONGER RANGE IS WHEN IKE WILL MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
THE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS QUITE LARGE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
THE GFDL IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A TRACK NEAR HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA…WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW A POSITION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
FOR NOW…THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS BETWEEN THESE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF…THE 12Z ECMWF…AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0300Z 22.1N 54.1W 115 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 23.1N 56.2W 115 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 24.0N 58.7W 105 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 24.3N 61.0W 105 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 23.8N 63.6W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 22.5N 68.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 22.5N 72.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 24.0N 75.5W 115 KT
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September 4th, 2008 at 9:13 am
Hurricane Ike Track
Latest computer models track forecast discussion from the National Hurricane Center has Ike as a very strong Category 4 hurricane and heading for south Florida while carving up the Bahamas on the way.
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HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER…WITH THE EYE EMBEDDED IN EVEN COLDER CLOUD TOPS THAN BEFORE.
THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 6.5 WHICH SUPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF 125 KT…AND THIS IS USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY.
IN SUCH INTENSE HURRICANES…FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER-CORE EVOLUTIONS SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT.
HOWEVER…THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS OVER 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ON IKE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.
THIS LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCE SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING…AND THAT IS WHAT IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST.
LATER ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS PROBABLE AS THE SHEAR WEAKENS AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE BUT IT REFLECTS OUR LACK OF SKILL IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY IN 3-5 DAYS.
IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR AROUND 290/15. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR FORECAST REASONING.
A DEEP-LAYER HIGH IS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS WOULD LIKELY CAUSE THE HEADING OF IKE TO BEND WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IT IS EXPECTED THAT IKE WILL HAVE PASSED THE CENTER OF THE HIGH…AND TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST.
THE BIG QUESTIONS IS HOW THE HURRICANE RESPONDS TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AROUND DAY 5.
LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS IN THIS TIME FRAME…WE SEE THAT THE ECMWF IS THE WESTERNMOST AND THE GFS IS THE NORTHEASTERNMOST.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THIS IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN 4- AND 5-DAY TRACK FORECASTS…IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT LAND AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THIS HURRICANE.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0900Z 22.7N 55.8W 125 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 23.5N 57.7W 125 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 24.0N 60.2W 115 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 24.0N 62.6W 110 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 23.4N 64.9W 110 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 22.5N 69.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 23.0N 73.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 76.5W 115 KT
—————————————-
Hurricane Ike – Latest Update
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/HR…AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS INTENSIFIED SOME MORE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 145 MPH…230 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
IT IS EXPECTED THAT IKE WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR OR CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM.
September 4th, 2008 at 10:35 am
Pretty much I would comment on the storm. and that We are following the storm too on http://www.myweatherlive.com/
Check it out for updates on Hurricane Hanna & Hurricane Ike…
September 4th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Hurricane Ike Track Update
Latest computer models forecast track discussion from the National Hurricane Center.
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hurricane ike track, hurricane ike tracking, ike path, ike track, computer models, spaghetti models, projected path
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
IKE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL.
HOWEVER THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW ASYMMETRIC DUE TO SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE BIT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 120 KT.
GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER IKE AND KEEP STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING.
IN ADDITION…INNER-CORE EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR…WHICH COULD WEAKEN IKE AS WELL.
IN THE LONGER-TERM…THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.
HOWEVER…DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF IKE…THE HURRICANE COULD BE IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THAT HAVE BEEN STIRRED UP BY HANNA.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT STILL SHOWS IKE AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD…AT ABOUT 290/14…A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
A BEND TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST SEEMS PROBABLE AS A HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHWEST OF IKE.
THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR FIRST PART OF THIS FORECAST WITH THE MODELS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT.
THE MODELS HAVE SPLIT INTO TWO GENERAL CAMPS THIS MORNING.
THE UKMET/GFS/HWRF ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE INITIALLY…THEN SHOW LESS OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS…COMPRISED OF THE NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFDN/GFDL…SHOW A FASTER TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AND SUGGEST MORE OF A THREAT TO THE BAHAMAS.
WITH CREDIBLE MODELS IN EACH GROUP…IT IS PROBABLY BEST TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR A BIAS-CORRECTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN 4- AND 5-DAY TRACK FORECASTS…IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT LAND AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THIS HURRICANE.
HOWEVER INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD BE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF IKE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/1500Z 23.2N 57.0W 120 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 23.8N 58.9W 115 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 24.0N 61.3W 110 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 23.6N 63.8W 105 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 23.0N 66.7W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 22.5N 71.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 23.5N 74.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 09/1200Z 25.5N 77.5W 105 KT
September 4th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
Hurricane Ike Track – Latest Projected Path
Latest computer models forecast track discussion from the National Hurricane Center.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF IKE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
IKE IS MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE…THOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME IN THE EYEWALL RECENTLY.
IT IS INTERESTING THAT WHILE IKE STARTED OUT AS A LARGE SYSTEM…THE CLOUD CANOPY HAS NOTICEABLY SHRUNK TODAY WITH FEW OUTER BANDS.
THERE HAS BEEN ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 115 KT.
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. IN FACT…THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THE SHEAR BY WEAKENING THIS SYSTEM TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE…THOUGH THE GFDL/HWRF ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER.
IN A COUPLE DAYS…VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND…COMBINED WITH RATHER WARM WATER WATERS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS…SHOULD RESULT IN RESTRENGTHENING.
THE HURRICANE’S EXACT TRACK IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT COULD BE IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS UPWELLED BY HANNA.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12…SLOWER THAN BEFORE AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.
RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE…CAUSING A WEST…AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION OF IKE BY LATE TOMORROW.
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHEN AN EVENTUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR IN THE LONG-RANGE.
THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE WESTWARD SHIFT IN ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY…WITH THE GFDL/ECMWF EVEN TAKING THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CUBA.
THE OTHER MODELS ARE PRETTY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK NEAR OR THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE HWRF MODEL.
ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS BECAUSE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THOSE TIMES.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 23.6N 58.2W 115 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 23.9N 60.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 23.7N 62.5W 95 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 23.2N 65.1W 95 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 22.7N 67.7W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 22.5N 72.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 24.0N 76.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 25.5N 79.0W 110 KT
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September 5th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
Hurricane Ike Track – Latest Projected Path
Latest computer models forecast and Hurricane Ike track discussion from the National Hurricane Center.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS PERFORMED THE FIRST PENETRATIONS ON IKE AND HAS CONFIRMED THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 109 KT WERE RECORDED…ALONG WITH SFMR WINDS OF 94 KT…PLUS A DROPSONDE SUGGESTED WINDS OF AT LEAST 95 KT.
A CONSENSUS OF ALL DATA SOURCES SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 100 KT…SO THIS VALUE WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
SOME WEAKENING COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SHEAR.
HOWEVER THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE TOMORROW…AND SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING…PERHAPS RAPID…BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE…SHOWING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH LGEM MODEL EARLY ON…AND IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF THEREAFTER.
A BIG UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IKE’S POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH CUBA OR FLORIDA…WHICH COULD WEAKEN THE HURRICANE MORE THAN SHOWN BELOW.
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION OF ABOUT 255/13.
A GRADUAL BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR SO AS RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF IKE WEAKENS SOMEWHAT.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST SOME SORT OF WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA IN A FEW DAYS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WEAKNESS MAY ALLOW A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TURN OF THE HURRICANE.
GENERALLY…THE MODELS THAT ARE SHOWING THE NORTHERNMOST TRACKS…SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS…ARE THE ONES WEAKENING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH FASTER.
THE MODELS WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS…SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFDL…SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE.
OVERALL…MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH…AND I’M GOING TO CONTINUE TO LEAN THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST…THE FORECAST COULD BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OR WEST LATER TONIGHT.
IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS…AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 22.9N 64.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 66.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 22.2N 68.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 22.1N 71.3W 100 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 22.2N 73.7W 110 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 78.2W 115 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.5N 81.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 25.5N 83.0W 115 KT
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September 6th, 2008 at 8:38 am
Hurricane Ike Projected Path – Latest Forecast Track Update
Ike looks to be headed for northern coast of Cuba, then ripping the Florida Keys with some Category 3 hurricane winds before turning northwest into the Gulf of Mexico in the general direction of New Orleans.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECORDED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 104 KT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND AN SFMR PEAK WIND OF 96 KT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE.
BASED ON THESE DATA…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT.
THE AIRCRAFT METEOROLOGIST ALSO INDICATED THAT IKE HAS A CLOSED 24 NM DIAMETER EYE.
A DROPSONDE WITHIN THE EYE MEASURED 983 MB BUT THAT WAS WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 16 KT.
AS A COMPROMISE…THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO 982 MB.
ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY SHEAR SEEMS TO BE PERSISTING OVER THE CYCLONE…IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AS MUCH AS IT WAS PREVIOUSLY.
INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS…WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE IKE MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT NOW DEPICTS SOME WEAKENING AS IKE TRAVERSES THE CUBAN COAST.
OF COURSE…ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WILL EITHER ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING OVER WATER OR A LONGER PERIOD OF WEAKENING OVER LAND.
LATER ON…CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 255/14…WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW OF A STRONG RIDGE DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS…THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA…AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHICH WILL CAUSE IKE TO MOVE IN A MORE WESTWARD FASHION.
AFTERWARD…GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE EXTENSION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF/STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL ERODE JUST ENOUGH TO INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE IKE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA.
IN FACT…THE TWO HURRICANE MODELS ACTUALLY BRING THE CYCLONE OVER THE ISLAND IN 36 HOURS.
WITHOUT QUESTION…THE PARTICULAR TRACK THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE SUGGESTING COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON IKE’S INTENSITY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS ADJUSTED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO COMPENSATE FOR THE WESTWARD-SHIFTING MODEL TREND.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 22.4N 67.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 22.1N 69.0W 100 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 21.8N 71.6W 100 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 21.6N 74.1W 105 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 21.8N 76.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 80.5W 90 KT…NEAR COAST OF CUBA
96HR VT 10/0600Z 24.5N 83.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 11/0600Z 26.0N 85.5W 110 KT
September 6th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Hurricane Ike Track Update – Latest Projected Path
Ike is headed for northern coast of Cuba, then curving northwest into the Gulf of Mexico in the general direction of New Orleans.
It’s too early to tell just where Ike will make landfall along the Gulf Coast. It could be anywhere from the Florida Panhandle all the way to Texas.
Here is the official forecast discussion:
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008
HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW SUGGEST ABOUT 95 KT.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATER TODAY…AND IKE IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE COOLER WATERS UPWELLED BY HANNA.
SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT-TERM AND IKE COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY TOMORROW.
IKE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR VERY CUBA DURING THE 36-72 HR TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING.
THE DEGREE OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW CLOSE IKE TRACKS TO LAND.
BY DAY 4…IKE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE BACK OVER OPEN WATERS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN SHOULD BE PLENTY WARM.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR IKE TO RESTRENGTHEN AT 96 AND 120 HR.
GIVEN THE EVOLVING ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND LAND INTERACTIONS…THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE.
IKE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AND THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 255/15.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN WESTWARD.
IN 3 TO 4 DAYS…A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE’S EVENTUAL TRACK AT THE EXTENDED RANGES.
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS AT THIS TIME…WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE PASSING SUFFICIENTLY FAR TO THE NORTH TO KEEP IKE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD…WHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW IKE TURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS.
IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO COMMIT TO EITHER ONE OF THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS…AND THUS THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 21.9N 68.8W 95 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 21.4N 70.4W 95 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 21.2N 72.9W 100 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 21.2N 75.4W 105 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 77.6W 95 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 81.5W 80 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 10/1200Z 24.5N 84.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 26.0N 86.0W 100 KT
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September 6th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Hurricane Ike Path – Latest Projected Path
It is still much to soon to make predictions of Hurrcane Ike’s exact landfall on the Gulf Coast.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IKE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS AGAIN INTENSIFIED.
THE PLANE REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 118 KT AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 129 KT.
ADDITIONALLY…CALCULATIONS FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 110 KT.
BASED ON THESE DATA…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT.
WITH THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER IKE NOW RELAXING AND THE WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WARM…ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL IKE REACHES CUBA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
ONCE OVER LAND…WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE CYCLONE EMERGES BACK OVER WATER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
HOWEVER…ONLY A
SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER AND LESS WEAKENING COULD OCCUR.
SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE DEPARTS CUBA SINCE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
IKE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 255/13.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN WESTWARD.
IN 3 TO 4 DAYS…AS IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO…A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE’S EVENTUAL TRACK AT THE EXTENDED RANGES.
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS…WITH THE GFDL MODEL SHOWING IKE TURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS…WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE BYPASSING IKE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
IT IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO COMMIT TO EITHER ONE OF THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS…AND ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/2100Z 21.4N 69.7W 115 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 21.2N 71.6W 120 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 21.1N 74.0W 125 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 21.2N 76.5W 120 KT…INLAND OVER CUBA
48HR VT 08/1800Z 21.7N 78.7W 95 KT…INLAND OVER CUBA
72HR VT 09/1800Z 23.0N 82.5W 80 KT…INLAND OVER CUBA
96HR VT 10/1800Z 25.0N 85.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 26.5N 87.0W 100 KT
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September 6th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
Hurricane Ike Track – Latest Computer Model
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008
…CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHING THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS…
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS…INCLUDING THE ACKLINS…CROOKED ISLAND…THE INAGUAS…MAYAGUANA…AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS…AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS…INCLUDING CAT ISLAND…THE EXUMAS…LONG ISLAND…RUM CAY…AND SAN SALVADOR. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO…SANTIAGO DE CUBA…AND HOLGUIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS AND CAMAGUEY.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS…CUBA…SOUTH FLORIDA…AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
AT 800 PM AST…0000Z…THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES…105 KM …EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
IKE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…18 KM/HR. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IKE SHOULD RESUME A TRACK BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH…24 KM/HR TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK…THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHORTLY…AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
IKE SHOULD THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH…215 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS PERIOD.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB…27.96 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF THE CENTER OF IKE.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION…21.3 N…70.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…947 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.
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September 6th, 2008 at 11:11 pm
Hurricane Ike Latest Computer Model – Projected Path
Ike to become a large hurricane again in the Gulf of Mexico and looks to be headed toward Texas after most recent computer model updat of storm track. As always, projected paths for days 4 and 5 are always subject to a wide error range that averages 300 miles.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 947 MB AND SURFACE WINDS OF 114 KNOTS ON ITS LAST PENETRATION BEFORE RETURNING TO BASE A FEW HOURS AGO.
ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK IKE AROUND 6 UTC. SINCE THEN…SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISTINCT EYE AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OR AT LEAST TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL IKE REACHES EASTERN CUBA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER…IKE WILL BE MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA FOR ABOUT TWO DAYS. THIS MOST CERTAINLY WILL CAUSE SOME WEAKENING.
HOWEVER…ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER AND THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING PERHAPS WILL NOT OCCUR.
ONCE IKE MOVES OUT OF CUBA…AND MOVE TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO IT COULD REGAIN SOME OF THE FORMER INTENSITY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
IT INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE HWRF MAKES IKE AN INTENSE HURRICANE AGAIN…AND GLOBAL MODELS…PRIMARILY THE GFS…MAKE IKE A VERY LARGE HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
IKE HESITATED A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY BUT IT HAS RESUMED ITS WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREE HEADING AT 13 KNOTS.
THE HURRICANE STILL HAS 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD…SO A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
BY THEN…IKE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER WESTERN CUBA…TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED…THEREFORE I HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST…BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KNOW IF IKE WILL MOVE OVER CUBA OR OVER WATER SINCE CUBA IS LONG BUT NARROW.
HOWEVER…I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS…THERE WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE MOST OF THE TIMES…THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPTION.
UNANIMOUSLY…TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TONIGHT AND I HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0300Z 21.2N 70.9W 115 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 21.0N 73.0W 120 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 75.5W 125 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 21.0N 78.0W 95 KT…INLAND OVER CUBA
48HR VT 09/0000Z 21.7N 80.0W 80 KT…INLAND OVER CUBA
72HR VT 10/0000Z 23.5N 83.5W 85 KT…OVER WATER
96HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W 100 KT
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September 7th, 2008 at 9:34 am
Hurricane Ike Computer Model – Ike Projected Path Update
Ike will slam into Cuba’s north shore with powerful Category 4 winds. The good news is that Ike will weaken considerably by going inland over Cuba.
Here’s a satellite view of Ike approaching Cuba:
The bad news is that conditions in the Gulf of Mexico in three to five days are conducive to restrengthening to at least a category 3 hurricane and Ike could be headed toward Houston, Texas.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008
THE EYE OF IKE PASSED DIRECTLY OVER THE TURKS ISLANDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AN AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SITE IN THE TURKS ISLANDS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 99 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 975.3 MB AT 0300 UTC. NO ADDITIONAL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM THAT STATION.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 948 MB AND A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL OF 121 KT. THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 115 KT.
IKE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INTIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/13.
IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN HAS BEGUN. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED…AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO…BEFORE TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS A LITTLE.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED ITS SOUTHWARD SHIFTS.
IN FACT…BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD…PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE ADDITIONAL DATA PROVIDED BY THE G-IV DROPSONDE MISSION LAST EVENING.
DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS…UKMET…AND ECMWF ALONG THE LEFT OR SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE…WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON THE RIGHT SIDE.
THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
IT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE 36 HOURS…AND THEREAFTER IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER OF IKE NEAR THE ISLAND OF CUBA.
THEREAFTER…THE INTENSITY IS DEPENDANT ON HOW LONG IKE INTERACTS WITH LAND.
WITH THE NEW TRACK FORECAST UP THE MIDDLE OF THE ISLAND…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADIVSORY.
ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF…CONIDITIONS APPREAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING…SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY INTENSIFICATION AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0900Z 21.1N 72.2W 115 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 21.0N 74.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 21.2N 76.6W 125 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 08/1800Z 21.8N 79.0W 85 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 09/0600Z 22.5N 81.1W 65 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 10/0600Z 24.5N 84.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 26.0N 87.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 12/0600Z 27.0N 89.5W 100 KT
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September 7th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Hurricane Ike Tracking – Ike Projected Path
Hurricane Ike to weaken significantly over Cuba.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB AT 1100 UTC WHICH WAS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FIXES.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 115 KT. A RECENT SSMI OVERPASS INDICATES THAT AN OUTER RAINBAND COULD BE FORMING AN OUTER EYEWALL.
HOWEVER… EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES…INCLUDING THEIR IMPACTS ON INTENSITY…ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS…EITHER UP OR DOWN…IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT.
ONCE INLAND…WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT THE DEGREE OF WEAKENING DEPENDS ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND.
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR APPROXIMATELY 36 HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN.
HOWEVER…ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER.
IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.
SINCE THE WATERS OVER THE GULF ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE HIGH…RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.
IKE IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/13.
IKE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
IN 2-3 DAYS…A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IKE’S FORWARD SPEED.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.
ONLY THE HWRF MODEL SHOWS ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS MATERIALIZING TO TURN IKE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.
SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FLOWN BY THE NOAA G-IV…AND THIS DATA…ALONG WITH SPECIAL SOUNDINGS FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES…ARE PROVIDING ENHANCED DATA INTO THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/1500Z 21.0N 73.4W 115 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 75.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 21.4N 77.6W 85 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.2N 79.9W 70 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 81.8W 65 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 10/1200Z 24.5N 85.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 26.0N 87.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 27.0N 90.5W 100 KT
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September 7th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
Hurricane Ike Path – Latest Update From NOAA NHC
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008
AT 200 PM EDT…1800Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 74.0 WEST OR JUST WEST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 90 MILES…155 KM…EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH…21 KM/HR.
A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
ON THIS TRACK…THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT…AND NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA LATE MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH…215 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES…230 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB…28.02 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA…AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION…20.9 N…74.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…949 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
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September 7th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
Hurricane Ike Track – Tracking Computer Model Update
How strong a Hurricane Ike is in the Gulf of Mexico depends on how much it interacts with Cuba.
A small deviation northward will mean a stronger Ike.
Longer over mountainous Cuba will mean a weaker Ike.
However, if Ike continues on track for Texas, there is time for significant strengthening.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008
THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INDICATES THAT IKE HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE. THE PLANE FOUND A PEAK SFMR OF 91 KT AND 107 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL.
AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE SUGGESTED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 100 KT BUT THE DROP MAY NOT HAVE SAMPLED THE HIGHEST WINDS.
WHILE THESE OBSERVATIONS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY LOWER INTENSITY…THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FELL TO 945 MB…AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED ONLY TO 105 KT.
A RECENT SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES AND REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRM THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL HAS FORMED…BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL COMPLETE PRIOR TO IKE REACHING CUBA.
ACCORDINGLY…SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
ONCE INLAND OVER CUBA…WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW LONG THE CENTER STAYS OVER LAND.
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR APPROXIMATELY 24-36 HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN.
HOWEVER…ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OR THE SOUTH COULD RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER.
IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS WHERE THE WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW.
IKE’S POTENTIAL FOR RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DEPEND ON ITS STRUCTURE ONCE IT EMERGES FROM CUBA.
IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/12.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH WEAKENS.
IN 2-3 DAYS…A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IN IKE’S FORWARD SPEED.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE TROUGH BYPASSING IKE TO THE NORTH WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE.
THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT LEFT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.
HOWEVER…ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS TOO MUCH ON SMALL CHANGES IN THE TRACK…AND IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/2100Z 21.1N 74.6W 105 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 21.2N 76.5W 100 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 08/1800Z 21.7N 78.8W 85 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 09/0600Z 22.4N 80.8W 70 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 09/1800Z 23.2N 82.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 24.5N 85.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 26.0N 88.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 91.0W 100 KT
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September 7th, 2008 at 11:29 pm
Hurricane Ike Path – Latest Update Computer Model Predictions
Hurricane Ike makes landfall in Cuba.
Much uncertainty remains over Ike’s path in the Gulf of Mexico.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008
SATELLITE AND CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IKE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 0145 UTC NEAR CABO LUCRECIA.
SATELLITE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTED THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT OCCURRED SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL BUT IMAGES FROM THE GRAN PIEDRA RADAR IN CUBA SUGGESTED THAT THE INNER EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI WAS STILL INTACT AS THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST.
SFMR AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MISSION INDICATE THAT IKE PROBABLY RE-STRENGTHENED TO 110-115 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN EASTERN CUBA.
REGARDLESS…WEAKENING IS NOW EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE LANDMASS OF CUBA.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL…TO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OVER WATER SOONER THAN EXPECTED.
ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO…THE COMBINATION OF WARM WATERS AND FAIRLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING….HOWEVER THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH THE HURRICANE WILL INTENSIFY IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.
INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/11. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR TO THE FORECAST REASONING.
THE STEERING CURRENT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TRACK TO GRADUALLY BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…AND THE TRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED ON A TRACK ALONG MUCH OF CUBA.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…AFTER IKE IS PREDICTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO…SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT COULD TURN THE HURRICANE MORE NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER A NUMBER OF MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS OR A TURN.
SUFFICE TO SAY THAT IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0300Z 21.1N 75.8W 105 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 21.4N 77.6W 90 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 09/0000Z 22.1N 79.9W 80 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 09/1200Z 22.8N 81.7W 70 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 10/0000Z 23.6N 83.5W 80 KT…OVER WATER
72HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 86.4W 90 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 13/0000Z 28.0N 92.0W 100 KT
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September 8th, 2008 at 8:22 am
Hurricane Ike Computer Model – Ike Projected Path
Hurricane Ike is directly over Cuba.
Ike’s projected path in the Gulf of Mexico is toward north Texas coast, but the National Hurricane Center warns it’s still too early to predict exact landfall as computer model track variations are large.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IKE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL CUBA.
THE EYE IS STILL VISIBLE BUT THE EYEWALL IS NOW ENTIRELY OVER LAND AND ITS STRUCTURE HAS DEGRADED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90 KT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN SHOWS LESS WEAKENING OVER LAND THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL…IN THE EVENT THAT THE CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER SOONER THAN FORECAST.
IF IKE FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK IT WILL BE OVER LAND FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS…AND WOULD ALMOST SURELY BE WEAKER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THAN SHOWN HERE.
NEVERTHELESS…THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY CONDUCIVE TO RESTRENGTHENING WITH A VERY DIFLUENT LIGHT SHEAR UPPER WIND PATTERN AND WARM WATERS BELOW.
THE MAJOR UNKNOWN IS HOW DISRUPTED IKE WILL BE WHEN IT EMERGES.
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
IKE’S TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO BEND GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AS THE STORM NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS.
AFTER THAT…THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN CALLING FOR A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON DAYS 4-5.
THE GFDL AND HWRF…WHICH USE THE GFS FOR BOUNDARY CONDITIONS…MAY BE PICKING UP ON THAT AND SHOW A BEND TO THE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS…SUCH AS THE ECMWF…SHOW MUCH MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THOSE RANGES AND HAVE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.
EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL HAS PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH IKE SO FAR…I’VE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST THE TRACK EASTWARD GIVEN THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FIELDS IN THE GFS HAVE NO SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER MODELS.
IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0900Z 21.2N 77.3W 90 KT…INLAND
12HR VT 08/1800Z 21.6N 79.0W 75 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 09/0600Z 22.4N 81.2W 65 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 09/1800Z 23.1N 83.0W 60 KT…EMERGING INTO GULF
48HR VT 10/0600Z 23.9N 84.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 25.5N 87.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 27.0N 90.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 13/0600Z 28.5N 93.0W 100 KT
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September 8th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
Hurricane Ike Projected Path Update
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
HUURICANE IKE BACK OVER WATER…RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY APPROACHING…
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.
AT 200 PM EDT…1800Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES…130 KM…WEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 250 MILES…405 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/HR…BUT A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY.
ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA TODAY…MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY…AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH…160 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF IKE’S INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER WATER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES…325 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB…28.50 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-3 FEET…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES…ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH TOMORROW.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION…21.2 N…79.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…965 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
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September 8th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Hurricane Ike Track – Latest Track Computer Model
Hurricane Ike is taking the same path that Gustav took along the south shore of Cuba, but is weaker now after crossing over Cuba’s mountains earlier today.
Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Ike is expected to make a beeline for the southern Texas coast, making landfall about mid-day on Saturday.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IKE RECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 965 MB.
DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE CORE OF IKE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION…AND THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT…BUT THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS.
HOWEVER…IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS…RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE ITS SECOND LANDFALL IN CENTRAL OR WESTERN CUBA.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL IKE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND AWAY FROM CUBA.
ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF…ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION.
THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BEYOND 48 HR.
IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OUR BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS NOW 275/12.
TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TAKING THE CENTER OF IKE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF CUBA TONIGHT…THEN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW.
ONCE IN THE GULF…IKE COULD SLOW DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SWING BY AND BE REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
SUCH A PATTERN SHOULD FORCE IKE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD.
DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER RIDGE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5…AND NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD.
SINCE THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTHWARD BUT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/2100Z 21.4N 79.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 21.8N 81.4W 80 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 22.6N 83.2W 80 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 10/0600Z 23.6N 84.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 24.4N 86.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 25.5N 89.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 92.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 13/1800Z 29.0N 96.0W 95 KT…INLAND
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September 8th, 2008 at 10:50 pm
Hurricane Ike Path – Hurricane Ike Track – Latest Update
Hurricane Ike is over water, moving along the south shore of Cuba.
Projected path now indicates landfall near Texas and Mexico border, but that is subject to change.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PENETRATION OF IKE’S EYE INDICATED THAT THERE WAS A CLOSED WALL AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD TOPS DEVELOPING VERY NEAR THE CENTER.
THERE HAD BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT EVEN THOUGH THERE WERE NO RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS TO SUPPORT THIS VALUE.
SURFACE WINDS AS HIGH AS 74 KT WERE REPORTED FROM THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARD THE AIRCRAFT…BUT THOSE DATA WERE QUESTIONABLE.
SINCE THE INNER CORE APPEARS TO BE REDEVELOPING…SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.
AFTER IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO…GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME EVIDENCE OF OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE’S CIRCULATION.
THE OFFICIAL 3- TO 4 DAY INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE…BUT WE HAVE LITTLE SKILL IN INTENSITY PREDICTION AT THESE TIME RANGES.
AFTER WOBBLING A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALMOST MOVING ASHORE ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA…THE MOTION HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290/11 AND IKE IS MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO…AND JUST OFFSHORE OF…THE COAST.
THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION OF IKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
IN 3-5 DAYS…THE GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT SOMEWHAT.
THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN…ALONG WITH THE NOGAPS…SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE IKE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN 96-120 HOURS.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HWRF AND GFDL INDICATE THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES WILL ERODE THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD TURN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
I AM FAVORING THE MORE WESTWARD OPTION AT THIS TIME SINCE IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF…WHICH ARE REGIONAL MODELS…WOULD NOT HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL AS A GLOBAL MODEL.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 BUT IS STILL GENERALLY NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.
AS ALWAYS…IT CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0300Z 21.8N 80.8W 70 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 22.4N 82.3W 80 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 23.2N 84.0W 85 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 24.0N 85.7W 90 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 24.8N 87.2W 95 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 26.0N 91.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/0000Z 27.0N 94.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 14/0000Z 28.0N 98.0W 95 KT…INLAND
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September 9th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Hurricane Ike Path – Hurricane Ike Tracking Computer Models
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IKE IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL…AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTION IS THAT OF A STRONGER STORM THAN THE RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA SUPPORT.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 965 MB ON THE LAST PASS…BUT THE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE NO HIGHER THAN 66 KT.
SFMR DATA SEEM TO SUPPORT A 65 KT INTENSITY…BUT SINCE THERE WAS LIMITED SAMPLING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN 70 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
AFTER THAT…RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT IN THE CENTRAL GULF…AND THE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT INDUCES A RIGHT TURN ON DAY 4.
THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE A DIFFERENT PATTERN…WITH MORE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IKE THAT KEEPS THE HURRICANE MOVING BASICALLY WESTWARD.
THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL WITH IKE THUS FAR…AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES.
OUT OF RESPECT FOR THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST…AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
WHEN IKE IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IT WILL BE IN A VERY DIFLUENT AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RESTRENGTHENING…AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.
THE PATTERN LOOKS A LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF…WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR…SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING THERE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE…WHICH IS BASICALLY CATEGORY 2…AND THE DYNAMICAL GFDL/HWRF WHICH SHOW CAT 3/4 STRENGTH IN THE WESTERN GULF.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/1500Z 22.6N 83.0W 70 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 23.2N 84.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W 85 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 24.7N 87.4W 95 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 89.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 26.0N 93.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 27.5N 97.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 29.0N 99.5W 40 KT…INLAND
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September 9th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Hurricane Ike Track – Hurricane Ike Projected Path Update
Projected path of Hurricane Ike for landfall on Texas coast has moved northward by several hundred miles from last forecast discussion.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
IKE MAINTAINED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED CORE STRUCTURE DURING ITS PASSAGE OVER WESTERN CUBA…ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO.
A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS JUST BEGINNING ITS PATTERN TO DETERMINE THE INTENSITY OF IKE…AND THEY HAVE ALREADY DETERMINED THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS LOW…968 MB.
IN THE MEANTIME…THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT.
REPORTS FROM THE PLANE JUST IN SUGGEST THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND IS 60 NM OR LARGER.
IT APPEARS THAT THE CORE IS INTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SOME VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO…INCLUDING SOME VERY DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
IN ADDITION…THE FORECAST TRACK FOR IKE TAKES IT NEAR OR OVER THREE WARM EDDIES…REGIONS OF ENHANCED OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.
THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST IKE TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF…WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM FAIL TO MAKE IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE.
THE GFS AND UKMET STILL SHOW AN UPPER-AIR PATTERN THAT LOOKS SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN GULF…SO I HAVE LEVELLED OFF THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER…IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ACROSS THE GULF.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9…AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS…WITH THE GFS…GFDL…AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF RUNS.
IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE…BUT ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/2100Z 22.9N 83.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 85.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 24.3N 86.6W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 24.9N 88.4W 100 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 25.3N 90.6W 105 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 26.5N 95.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 98.0W 60 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 14/1800Z 33.6N 98.0W 30 KT…INLAND
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September 9th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
Hurricane Ike Path – Latest Track Update
As Hurricane Ike approaches the Texas coast, the big question is when will Ike make it’s sharp turn northward? After landfall or just before?
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ABOARD A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AROUND IT.
IKE WILL BE TRAVERSING THE LOOP CURRENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY…AND THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OTHER WARM EDDIES…ALBEIT LESS PRONOUNCED…NEAR THE PROJECTED PATH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.
THE GFS 200 MB WIND FORECAST SHOWS SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER IKE WHEN IT REACHES THE WESTERN GULF…BUT ALSO WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE.
THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS…PRESUMABLY BECAUSE OF WARM UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A 200 MB HIGH NEAR TEXAS.
GIVEN THE OTHERWISE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS IKE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AS IN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL NHC FORECASTS.
THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND AGAIN BUT THE MEAN MOTION IS NEAR 300/8.
THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…IKE SHOULD MAKE A TURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
THERE IS STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW SOON THIS TURN WILL BEGIN.
THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION UP TO ABOUT 72 HOURS.
AFTERWARD THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRAJECTORY AND FORWARD SPEED.
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD BUT THE OVERALL DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
AGAIN…ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL FORECAST POINT DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0300Z 23.2N 84.3W 70 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 23.9N 85.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 24.6N 87.1W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 89.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 25.6N 91.1W 105 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 27.5N 95.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 30.5N 98.5W 40 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 15/0000Z 35.0N 97.0W 25 KT…INLAND
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September 10th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Hurricane Ike Path – Latest Ike Projected Path
Ike’s projected path moves a little more north along the Texas coast. NHC says Category 3 at landfall, but possibly stronger than that.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. AN AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER AND THERE ARE NUMEROUS OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS.
IKE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERMOST FLORIDA KEYS.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY SAMPLING THE HURRICANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 963 MB AND SFMR WINDS OF 73 KNOTS. THE MAXIMIUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SO FAR IS 81 KNOTS.
ON THIS BASIS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UP TO 75 KNOTS.
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IKE HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM THE MANY HOURS OF INTERACTION WITH LAND.
A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS IKE MOVES OVER A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOOP CURRENT AND MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODELS.
HOWEVER…THE INTENISITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AND IKE COULD END UP BEING A CATEGORY HIGHER OR LOWER THAN FORECAST.
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AND EXPAND WESTWARD FORCING IKE TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT TREE DAYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
THEREAFTER…THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY INLAND.
I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR FORECAST TRACK SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.
THEREAFTER…THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT SO HIGH BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE MORE SPREAD OUT…BUT THEY ALL BRING THE HURRICANE ASHORE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS…AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 23.5N 84.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 24.0N 86.0W 80 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 24.7N 87.7W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 25.2N 89.7W 100 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 25.8N 92.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 27.5N 96.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 31.5N 98.0W 40 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 15/0600Z 34.5N 97.0W 25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
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September 10th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Hurricane Ike Track – Latest Ike Tracking Computer Model
Here’s a satellite picture of Hurricane Ike at 11:30 a.m. Tuesday morning, so you can see how big the storm is.
Ike’s projected path moves a little more north along the Texas coast. NHC says Category 3 at landfall, but possibly stronger than that.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
THE NOAA AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 81 KT…AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 957 MB. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 84 KT…AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT ON THIS BASIS.
THE SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THAT THE HURRICANE WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED.
THE SMALL EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN LOOPING WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS…BUT THE OVERALL MOTION OF IKE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7.
THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST…WHICH CALLS FOR A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS…ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD HAS INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ONCE AGAIN…THE GFS INDICATES A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A RECURVATURE BEGINNING AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
USERS ARE REMINDED THAT THE AVERAGE THREE DAY FORECAST ERROR IS NEARLY 200 MILES…AND THAT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE THREAT IS GIVEN BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY GRAPHICAL AND TEXT PRODUCTS.
THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER EYE IS ERODING AS OUTER BANDS SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THIS COULD LIMIT RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM.
HOWEVER…THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS GOING TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS…AND NOT MUCH LESS FAVORABLE THEREAFTER.
IN ADDITION…THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IKE OVER SOME WARM GULF EDDIES.
WHILE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN GULF…AND INDEED SOME OF THAT IS NEAR THE CORE RIGHT NOW…THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND OUTER BANDING SUGGESTS THAT IKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFECTIVE IN FIGHTING OFF THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/1500Z 23.9N 85.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 24.5N 86.8W 90 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 88.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 25.7N 90.7W 105 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 26.3N 93.1W 110 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 28.5N 97.0W 105 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 14/1200Z 31.5N 98.0W 35 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 15/1200Z 34.5N 96.0W 25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
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September 10th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
Hurricane Ike Predictions – Ike Projected Path
Ike now a Category 2 hurricane and it’s growing stronger and moving faster than previous predictions with landfall now expected at 7:00 a.m. Saturday morning.
Ike’s projected path is aiming at squarely at Galveston, Texas and is expected to become a major hurricane within 24 hours.
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
HURRICANE IKE NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE…
AT 200 PM EDT…1800Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES…410 KM…WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 395 MILES…640 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR.
A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY…AND A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 100 MPH…155 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IKE IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES…130 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES…335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB…28.29 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION…24.2 N…85.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…958 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
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September 10th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
Hurricane Ike Track – Latest Update On Ike Path
Update: Ike to be Category 4 hurricane at landfall Saturday morning and is a huge storm that will cover most of the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday afternoon.
Satellite view of Hurricane Ike at 5:00 p.m. Wednesday afternoon.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT IKE HAS TWO WELL-DEFINED WIND MAXIMA OF ROUGHLY EQUAL STRENGTH.
THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KT WERE FOUND IN A BAND ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE CENTER.
A DROPSONDE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE CENTER REPORTED LOW-LAYER MEAN WINDS OF 97 KT…WHICH CORRESPOND TO 82 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE ADVISORY WINDS ARE SET TO 85 KT ON THIS BASIS.
THE LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPLAINS THE APPARENT MISMATCH BETWEEN THE PEAK WINDS AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING…INCLUDING LIGHT SHEAR AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ON THE OTHER HAND…RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE TRACK NOW SUGGEST THAT IKE MAY ENCOUNTER A COOL EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND MISS A WARM EDDY.
NEVERTHELESS…ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOW MAKES IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
OTHER THAN INTERNAL EYEWALL DYNAMICS…WHICH ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE…I SEE NO REASON WHY IKE SHOULD WEAKEN APPRECIABLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7.
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.
IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IKE APPROACHES A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO COVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO DAYS.
ALL GUIDANCE TURNS IKE NORTHWARD TO VARYING DEGREES WITHIN A DAY OR SO OF PROJECTED LANDFALL.
THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE…MOST NOTABLY THE GFDL AND GFS.
IT IS TO BE EXPECTED THAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO GUIDANCE FLIP FLOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WITH THAT IN MIND…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.
IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE…AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST…THE EFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE AREA.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/2100Z 24.5N 86.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 87.4W 95 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 25.6N 89.3W 105 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 26.2N 91.5W 110 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 94.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W 90 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 14/1800Z 34.5N 95.5W 30 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 15/1800Z…ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE
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September 10th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Hurricane Ike Latest Update – Projected Path
Hurricane Ike’s projected path shifting north along the Texas coast as computer models diverge.
Expected to be category 4 at landfall Saturday morning with 135 mph winds.
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
700 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008
HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF…
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.
AT 700 PM CDT…0000Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST OR ABOUT 700 MILES…1125 KM…EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 345 MILES…555 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR. A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY ON THURSDAY…AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH…160 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES…335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB…27.96 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES.
REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION…24.7 N…86.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…947 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.
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September 10th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
Hurricane Ike Latest Track Update – Computer Models
Satellite view of Hurricane Ike over the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
OVERALL…IKE IS A LARGE CYCLONE…AS DATA FROM BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE EXTENT OF WINDS OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAS INCREASED…ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
PARADOXICALLY…IKE HAS A VERY SMALL INNER CORE…AND THE EYE HAS A DIAMETER OF ONLY ABOUT 8 TO 10 N MI.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN STEADILY FALLING…NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 944 MB…BUT THE WINDS HAVE NOT YET RESPONDED.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT BASED ON RECENT SFMR WIND SPEED RETRIEVALS.
THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONTINGENT UPON HOW LONG THE EXTREMELY SMALL INNER CORE SURVIVES.
SINCE IT COULD DISINTEGRATE AT ANY TIME…AND SINCE IKE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER A COLD EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…THE HURRICANE COULD WEAKEN.
IF…HOWEVER…THE TENACIOUS INNER CORE REMAINS INTACT…AND GIVEN THE RECENT PRESSURE FALLS…IKE COULD STRENGTHEN SOME AS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
BEYOND 24 HOURS…THE UNDERLYING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK…AND IKE WILL REMAIN WITHIN A WEAK WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT…SO MORE ROBUST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT 36-48 HOURS.
THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24 HOURS BUT IS SIMILAR THEREAFTER…AND IS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL…BUT HIGHER THAN SHIPS AND LGEM.
THE APPARENT WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWN BELOW ONLY RESULTS FROM IKE GOING INLAND…BUT NO WEAKENING TREND IS ACTUALLY ANTICIPATED LEADING UP TO FINAL LANDFALL.
THE CENTER OF IKE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR 315/6…A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK…BUT VERY RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LAST FIX FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGESTS THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST COULD BE STARTING.
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD.
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS…ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY INDUCE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH…BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL OCCUR.
THE HWRF IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND FORECASTS A STRONGER AND LONGER-LASTING RIDGE THAT TAKES IKE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE TURNING NORTH.
CONVERSELY…THE GFDL IS THE RIGHTMOST MODEL WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THAT ALLOWS IKE TO TURN INTO THE GALVESTON AREA.
THE OTHER MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN…AS IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST….WHICH IS NOT APPRECIABLY CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED.
SINCE THE TIMING OF THE TURN BEFORE LANDFALL IS SO UNCERTAIN AND SO KEY IN WHERE THE CORE OF IKE COMES ASHORE…AND SINCE IKE WILL BE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND NOT GOING IN A STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS…ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.
EVERYONE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA HAS ABOUT THE SAME RISK OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 24.9N 86.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 25.4N 88.0W 90 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 26.0N 90.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 26.7N 92.4W 100 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 27.7N 94.6W 110 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 31.5N 96.5W 55 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 15/0000Z 36.0N 93.0W 30 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 16/0000Z…ABSORBED
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September 11th, 2008 at 9:07 am
Hurricane Ike Latest Update
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2008
IKE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME UNUSUAL STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS.
DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY IS STILL NEAR 85 KT…WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THE REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE.
THE LATTER VALUE…946 MB…WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 3/4 HURRICANE.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD…PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS OBSERVED BY BUOYS AND SHIPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
HOWEVER IT CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL INNER CORE WITH AN EYE JUST UNDER 10 N MI IN DIAMETER.
THERE HAS BEEN A DOUBLE WIND MAXIMUM…ALTHOUGH HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE OUTER WIND BAND IS BEGINNING TO CONTRACT.
OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR NEUTRAL ALONG THE PATH OF IKE AS IT WILL LIKELY TRAVERSE JUST TO THE NORTH OF A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
IKE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL…WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.
FIXES FROM THE CURRENT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION INDICATE THAT THE MOTION HAS TURNED BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST…I.E. 295/8.
THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS…TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO TEXAS.
DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE PORTION OF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL WEAKEN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND THIS WOULD CAUSE IKE TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW SOON AND HOW SHARP OF A TURN WILL OCCUR.
HOWEVER…THE CONSENSUS OF OUR MOST RELIABLE TRACK FORECAST MODELS IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THEREFORE I HAVE MADE ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
THIS IS BETWEEN THE LATEST HWRF RUN…WHICH IS TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST…AND THE LATEST GFDL RUN….WHICH IS TO THE RIGHT.
IN THIS CASE IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DAMAGING WINDS EXTEND SO FAR FROM THE CENTER.
THE EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WIND FIELD OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT NECESSITATES AN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING A LITTLE FATHER NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0900Z 25.2N 87.6W 85 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 25.7N 89.0W 90 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 26.3N 91.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 27.1N 93.2W 105 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 28.4N 95.2W 110 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 32.5N 96.0W 40 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 15/0600Z 37.0N 90.5W 25 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 16/0600Z…ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE
September 11th, 2008 at 10:53 am
Hurricane Ike Latest Update
Satellite photo of Hurricane Ike in Gulf of Mexico Thursday morning:
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2008
DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT IKE IS MAINTAINING AN ATYPICAL WIND STRUCTURE…CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY BROAD WIND FIELD WITH MULTIPLE WIND MAXIMA AND RELATIVELY LITTLE TRANSPORT OF WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THE NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 103 KT 100 NMI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER…BUT SFMR AND DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE WINDS IN THAT AREA WERE ONLY AROUND 65 KT.
IN FACT…THERE HAS BEEN NOTHING AT THE SURFACE RECENTLY THAT QUITE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT 85 KT ADVISORY INTENSITY.
FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE WIND STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IS EVEN MORE CHALLENGING THAN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY…BUT IKE HAS PLENTY OF TIME FOR ONE OF THE OUTER MAXIMA TO CONTRACT AND FOR THE WINDS TO TRY TO CATCH UP TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE…CURRENTLY ABOUT 945 MB.
ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST…IT IS STRONG ELSEWHERE AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.
ONE INHIBITING FACTOR COULD BE UPWELLING/MIXING OF COOLER WATER AHEAD OF THE PATH OF IKE DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LARGE EXPANSE OF STRONG WINDS.
THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NEAR LANDFALL RANGES FROM A CATEGORY FOUR FROM THE GFDL TO CATEGORY TWO FROM THE SHIPS MODEL…ABOUT THE ERROR ONE CAN EXPECT FROM AN OFFICIAL FORECAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OUT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ROUGHLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE GUIDANCE MODELS…AND ANTICIPATES THAT IKE WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING THROUGH LANDFALL…WITH IKE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING UNTIL VERY NEAR LANDFALL…WHEN IT SHOULD GENTLY TURN TO THE RIGHT AT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS…WITH THE ECMWF ON THE RIGHT AND THE GFS TO THE LEFT.
ONCE AGAIN…GIVEN THE TYPICAL FORECAST ERRORS FOR A 48 HOUR FORECAST…AND THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD…IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/1500Z 25.5N 88.4W 85 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 25.9N 90.0W 90 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 26.6N 92.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 27.8N 94.2W 105 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 29.5N 95.9W 100 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 14/1200Z 34.5N 94.0W 35 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 15/1200Z 38.0N 85.0W 25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/1200Z…ABSORBED
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September 11th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
Hurricane Ike Forecast – Latest Update On Storm Surge
Hurricane Ike is bringing a huge storm surge of up to 20 feet above normal tide levels late Friday and early Saturday.
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
…LARGE HURRICANE IKE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO…
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER…INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
AT 100 PM CDT…1800Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES…710 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 470 MILES …760 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
IKE HAS MADE A SMALL JOG TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS…BUT IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/HR.
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO…AND THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER…BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE…WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH…160 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE COASTLINE.
IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES…445 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 952 MB…28.11 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION…25.8 N…88.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…952 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.
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September 11th, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Hurricane Ike Latest Update
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 20-foot surge — a rapid rising of water inundating areas and moving inland — for a large swath of Texas and the Louisiana coasts.
Above that, the center predicts “large and dangerous battering waves.”
Waves could be 50 feet tall, said hurricane center spokesman and meteorologist Dennis Feltgen.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008
IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH…SIZE…AND STRUCTURE THIS EVENING.
THE HURRICANE STILL HAS NOT RID ITSELF OF WHAT REMAINS OF THE OLD INNER EYEWALL…BUT RECON SHOWS THAT WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT FEATURE.
INSTEAD…DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS EVEN A LITTLE FARTHER OUT THAN BEFORE…NOW ABOUT 80 N MI.
SFMR RETRIEVED WIND SPEEDS AND LOW-LAYER AVERAGES FROM DROPSONDES IN THAT MAXIMUM WIND BAND SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 85 KT.
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IKE WILL REMAIN OVER WATER FOR A LITTLE MORE THAN 24 HOURS…PROVIDING THE CYCLONE SOME OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE WEAKENING OVER LAND.
THE SLOWLY-CHANGING STRUCTURE ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING…AND NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE EXPLICITLY FORECASTS IKE TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING…AND THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ARE NOT EXACTLY COLD…SO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE.
IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT IKE COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE CROSSING THE COAST.
IKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/10 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES…AND THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL ROUND THAT RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD IN GENERAL LAST UNTIL IKE IS NEAR OR OVER THE COASTLINE…BUT THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TURN IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY UNCERTAIN THAT ONE CANNOT SPECIFY A TIME AND LOCATION OF FINAL LANDFALL OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
DUE TO THE VERY LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE…HOWEVER…IKE WILL AFFECT A VERY LARGE AREA REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER GOES.
DAMAGING WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGES COULD EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION…AND CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL DETERIORATE TOMORROW WELL IN ADVANCE OF LANDFALL OF THE CENTER.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER SINCE THE LAST CYCLE…AND ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED RIGHT AROUND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK…WHICH IS CHANGED NEGLIGIBLY ON THIS ADVISORY.
THE NEW TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE INLAND RECURVATURE…AND THE FORECAST NOW DESIGNATES IKE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT 72 HOURS AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0300Z 26.3N 90.4W 85 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 27.1N 92.1W 90 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 28.5N 94.1W 95 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 30.3N 95.5W 65 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 14/0000Z 32.9N 95.7W 35 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 15/0000Z 39.0N 88.5W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/0000Z…ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE
BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…IKE WILL CREATE A STORM SURGE WELL IN EXCESS OF WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM OF ITS INTENSITY.
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September 11th, 2008 at 11:38 pm
How high will the water rise
September 12th, 2008 at 8:34 am
National Hurricane Center is predicting a storm surge of 20 feet that will last at least 12 hours.
Bbecause the storm is so large in size, it will literally be pushing a wall of water ahead of it to the north side of the eye.
That will definitely cause widespread flooding along the northern Texas coast and western louisiana.
September 12th, 2008 at 8:35 am
Hurricane Ike Storm Surge Danger
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 20-foot surge — a rapid rising of water inundating areas and moving inland — for a large swath of Texas and the Louisiana coasts.
Above that, the center predicts “large and dangerous battering waves.”
Waves could be 50 feet tall, said hurricane center spokesman and meteorologist Dennis Feltgen.
Satellite view of Hurricane Ike Friday morning in the Gulf of Mexico.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 107 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND SFMR-BASED SURFACE WINDS OF 92 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ADDITIONALLY…A DROPSONDE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS OF 85-90 KT.
BASED ON THIS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT.
ALTHOUGH IKE HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY…THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER…OCCURRING ABOUT 50-60 N MI AWAY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 953 MB.
IKE WOBBLED A LITTLE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS…BUT APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A MOTION OF 290/11.
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.
IKE IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TOWARD A BREAK CAUSED BY A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
IKE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HR…THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES THEREAFTER.
ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO…ALTHOUGH THE GFS CALLS FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEFORE LANDFALL AND A SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS…BEING NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION…AND BEING NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AFTER 36 HR.
THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND ANALYSES FROM CIMMS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT IKE IS UNDERGOING ABOUT 15 KT OF NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR.
THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL LANDFALL.
THAT…COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF AN INNER CORE…SUGGESTS SLOW STRENGTHENING AT BEST.
HOWEVER…IKE IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT STRONG CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER…AND THE SHEAR HAS NOT STOPPED THE STORM FROM STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING.
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL…WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING AN INTENSITY OF JUST OVER 100 KT.
BASED ON THIS…THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR IKE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HR.
IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL…AND IT IS FORECAST TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HR AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL…THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE VERY LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0900Z 26.7N 91.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 27.4N 93.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 29.0N 94.8W 100 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 31.3N 95.7W 55 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 14/0600Z 34.4N 94.7W 35 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 15/0600Z 41.0N 84.0W 30 KT…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/0600Z…ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE
BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…IKE WILL CREATE A STORM SURGE WELL IN EXCESS OF WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM OF ITS INTENSITY.
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September 12th, 2008 at 9:07 am
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
700 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
…LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST…
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER…INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
AT 700 AM CDT…1200Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES…585 KM…EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 230 MILES…370 KM…SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY…WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER…BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE…WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY…LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH…165 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.
IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES…195 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES…445 KM.
AN OIL PLATFORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 MPH…176 KM/HR…AT AN ELEVATION OF 400 FEET.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB…28.23 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL…EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.
SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 25 FEET…AND POSSIBLY HIGHER…COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION…26.9 N…92.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…956 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.
September 12th, 2008 at 11:09 am
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
…100 MPH PLUS WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST BY MIDNIGHT…WEATHER SHOULD DETERIORATE EARLIER…
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER…INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
AT 1000 AM CDT…1500Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES…480 KM…EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 195 MILES…320 KM …SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY…WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER…BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE…WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE SOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH…165 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE…MAJOR HURRICANE.
STRONGER WINDS…ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS…ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES…195 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES…445 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 954 MB…28.17 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET…WITH A FEW SPOTS TO NEAR 25 FEET…ABOVE NORMAL TIDE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL.
THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.
WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION…27.2 N…92.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…954 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.
September 12th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Ike Storm Surge
Powerful Hurricane Ike storm surge at 20 feet above normal tide levels expected to cause massive flooding
Photo of Galveston seawall when storm surge was only six feet above normal. These huge waves will do tremendous damage once they overflow manmade or natural barriers.
http://3dnature.com/anim/Galveston_TX-20ft-high.mp4
Here is a 3D animation of a 20 foot storm surge into Galveston – Basically everything within a mile of the beach will be completely underwater.
Hurricane Ike satellite view:
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
…WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHES….
AT 1 PM CDT…1800 UTC…THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER…INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM CDT…1800Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES…270 KM…SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 270 MILES…430 KM…EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY…WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER…BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE…WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE VERY SOON.
DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH…165 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE…MAJOR HURRICANE.
STRONGER WINDS…ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS…ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES…195 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES…445 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB…28.26 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET…WITH A FEW SPOTS TO NEAR 25 FEET…ABOVE NORMAL TIDE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL.
THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.
WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION…27.4 N…93.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.
September 12th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
Hurricane Ike Storm Surge Danger
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 20-foot surge — a rapid rising of water inundating areas and moving inland — for a large swath of Texas and the Louisiana coasts.
Above that, the center predicts “large and dangerous battering waves.”
Galveston Island already has 9 feet of water in low-lying areas and the eye of Hurricane Ike is still 135 miles SouthEast of Galveston.
People who avoided warnings to evacuate low-lying areas are risking “certain death” according to forecasters.
Satellite view of Hurricane Ike Friday afternoon in the Gulf of Mexico.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008
IKE HAS BEEN UNDER CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE DATA INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A LARGE WIND FIELD AND LACKS A WELL-DEFINED TIGHT INNER CORE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KNOTS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER…THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL…BUT BASICALLY THIS IS LARGELY IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT WIND INCREASE.
STATE OF THE ART TECHNIQUES TO FORECAST INTENSITY AND MY SKILLS ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO PREDICT SUCH CHANGE WITH PRECISION.
ALL WE NEED TO DO AT THIS THIS TIME IS TO BE READY FOR A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
IKE WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL…AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS…AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.
IKE HAS CONTINUED ITS PUSH TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
I AM CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS VERY TIGHT AND MODELS TAKE IKE NOWHERE BUT TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
ONCE INLAND…IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL…THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER.
IN ADDITION…THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL.
A GAGE INDICATES THAT THE WATER LEVEL HAS ALREADY RISEN MORE THAN 9 FEET ON PART OF GALVESTON ISLAND.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/2100Z 27.7N 93.5W 90 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 29.0N 94.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 96.0W 65 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 14/0600Z 35.0N 94.5W 30 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 14/1800Z 38.5N 89.5W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 15/1800Z…ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT
BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…IKE WILL CREATE A STORM SURGE WELL IN EXCESS OF WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM OF ITS INTENSITY.
Related searches:
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September 12th, 2008 at 9:41 pm
Hurricane Ike Near Landfall – Huge Storm Surge Underway
Hurricane Ike will make landfall about 2:00 a.m. just south of Galveston Bay, which will maximize the storm surge into that vital shipping channel.
That landfall point is what Homeland Security director Michael Chertoff called “our worst case scenario.”
Huge storm surge of 20 feet above normal tide levels is expected to cause massive flooding
Here is a 3D animation of a 20 foot storm surge into Galveston – everything within a mile of the beach will be completely underwater.
http://3dnature.com/anim/Galveston_TX-20ft-high.mp4
Hurricane Ike satellite view about 50 miles offshore:
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
…IKE’S OUTER RAINBANDS LASHING THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS…
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
AT 800 PM CDT…0100Z…THE CENTER OF VERY LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES…115 KM…SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 95 MILES …155 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BEAUMONT TEXAS.
IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH…175 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST SATURDAY MORNING AS A CATEGORY THREE…MAJOR HURRICANE.
STRONGER WINDS…ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER GUSTS…ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES…195 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES…445 KM.
DURING THE PAST HOUR…SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON GALVESTON ISLAND AND A GUST TO 70 MPH WAS MEASURED AT A NOAA BUOY JUST OFFSHORE GALVESTON ISLAND BEFORE IT STOPPED REPORTING.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB…28.11 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET…WITH NEAR 25 FEET IN SOME AREAS…ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL.
THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.
WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.
DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 800 PM CDT POSITION…28.4 N…94.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…952 MB.
THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.
September 12th, 2008 at 10:22 pm
Hurricane Ike Approaching Landfall
Hurricane Ike strengthening right before landfall, which is expected about 1:00 a.m. CDT. Because the storm is so big and the eye is now 40 miles wide, the Galveston area will take a severe six-hour pounding as the eye passes directly over Galveston Island.
The National Hurricane Center is warning that the storm surge is always the most deadly part of a hurricane, not the strong winds.
Peak storm surge levels will occur just after Hurricane Ike makes landfall with Galveston Bay expected to experience a storm surge exceeding 25 feet.
Many coastal areas of Texas and Louisiana are already flooding as water levels have risen 9 feet ahead of Ike’s landfall. Galveston Island already has 12 feet of water in low-lying areas and the eye of Hurricane Ike is still 135 miles SouthEast of Galveston.
People who avoided warnings to evacuate low-lying areas are risking almost “certain death” according to forecasters.
Satellite view of Hurricane Ike late Friday evening in the Gulf of Mexico.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008
A PLETHORA OF DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS…NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT…AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS…AND A 40 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS BECOME PROMINENT.
THE LOWEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON HAS BEEN 952 MB.
DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL AT 6500 FT HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 114 KT…AND A DROPSONDE IN THAT SAME AREA MEASURED A PEAK WIND VALUE OF 116 KT.
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB HAVE RANGED FROM 103-105 KT…AND A RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 90 KT WAS MEASURED IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL AROUND 0140Z.
ALL OF THIS INFORMATION CORRESPONDS TO A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 95 KT.
THE LARGE EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS…BUT A GENERAL MOTION OF 315/10 SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN THE PREFERRED DIRECTION OF TRAVEL.
SHORT TERM EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE THE CENTER OF IKE ALONG GALVESTON ISLAND AND/OR THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER LANDFALL…IKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED EAST-WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TURN NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS…AND THEN RECURVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A FAST APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
BY 36-48 HOURS…IKE MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK…AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.
IKE STILL HAS ABOUT A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN INTO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE. EQUALLY IMPORTANT…HOWEVER…IS THE EFFECT THAT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HAVE ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
WIND DATA FROM LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES INDICATE THAT WINDS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH…115 KT OR 130 MPH …EXIST JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE.
THERE COULD BE A REPEAT OF DAMAGE TO WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE STRUCTURES SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED DURING HURRICANE ALICIA IN 1983.
THE PEAK WIND SPEED AND VARIOUS WIND RADII WERE HELD HIGHER THAN OUR INLAND WIND DECAY MODELS ARE PREDICTING DUE TO THE MUCH LARGER SIZE OF IKE.
ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL…THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER.
IN ADDITION…THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL.
WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN MORE THAN 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0300Z 28.6N 94.4W 95 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 30.3N 95.4W 70 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 14/0000Z 33.2N 95.3W 35 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 14/1200Z 36.6N 92.3W 30 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 15/0000Z 40.5N 86.0W 25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT 16/0000Z…ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE
BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…IKE WILL CREATE A STORM SURGE WELL IN EXCESS OF WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM OF ITS INTENSITY.
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September 13th, 2008 at 9:43 am
Hurricane Ike Hits Galveston and Houston Hard
It remained unclear how many people may have perished as the worst of Ike was passing over the Houston-Galveston area. But even before daylight arrived, damage was considered extensive. Thousands of homes and government buildings flooded, roads were washed out, 2.9 million people lost power and several fires burned unabated as crews could not reach them.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008
THE 40 NM WIDE EYE OF IKE MADE LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST JUST AFTER 0700 UTC. AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY WAS 95 KT…CATEGORY 2 ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE LANDFALL PRESSURE WAS NEAR 952 MB.
THE STORM HAS NOT YET HAD TIME TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN…SO 95 KT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND…WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 48 HR AND BE ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE THEREAFTER.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER WOBBLY 325/11.
IKE IS ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES…AND IT SHOULD RECURVE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR.
ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO…WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED AFTER RECURVATURE.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
EVEN THOUGH IKE HAS MADE LANDFALL…IT REMAINS A VERY LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH EFFECTS FELT AT LONG DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER.
WATER LEVELS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS MAY CONTINUE TO RISE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY…HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR WELL INLAND NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF IKE.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0900Z 29.7N 95.0W 95 KT…INLAND
12HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 95.2W 65 KT…INLAND
24HR VT 14/0600Z 34.6N 93.9W 35 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 14/1800Z 38.6N 89.2W 30 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 15/0600Z 42.5N 81.0W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 16/0600Z…ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE INLAND
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