Hurricane Hanna Path – The NHC says Hanna is expected to make landfall in South Carolina, although their computer models still offer different paths.
The National Hurricane Center has been a bit baffled by the bizarre meanderings of Hurricane Hanna and seems to change the storm’s projected path with almost every update. Earlier today, the NHC said the tropical storm she could become a major hurricane before hitting South Carolina on mid-day Friday. Now, a few hours later that path prediction has been backed down to a modest Category 1 hurricane.
Check out these computer models of various paths for Hanna, aka spaghetti models, that plot the various storm tracks on a prediction map.
Here’s the latest updated composite storm tracking model for Hanna from the National Hurricane Center:
Hanna’s path will definitely tack the strom up through most of the mid-Atlantic states bringing planty of high winds and rain throught the Carolinas and Virginia.
And that’s the latest update from the NHC on the computer models for the Hurricane Hanna path.
Tags: hurricane hanna, hurricane hanna path, hurricane hanna projected path
September 2nd, 2008 at 6:23 pm
Hurricane Hanna Track
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING HANNA CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED.
THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 850 MB WAS 66 KT WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 55 KT AT THE SURFACE. HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM.
BY TOMORROW…GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CUT OFF JUST WEST OF HANNA AND THEN DROP SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IF THIS EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES…AND ASSUMING HANNA IS ABLE TO FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR…THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR HANNA TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO…IN LINE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY MODELS.
HOWEVER…THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO IS COMPLEX…WHICH RESULTS IN LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT HANNA CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 150/02.
TRACK MODELS INSIST THAT HANNA WILL START ITS MUCH-ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST SOON…AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.
SUCH A TRACK WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
HANNA IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT MAKES ITS APPROACH TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER…UNTIL HANNA BEGINS A MORE DEFINITIVE MOTION…IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE POTENTIAL IMPACT AREA.
IN ADDITION…THE ANTICIPATED ANGLE OF APPROACH TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST MEANS THAN ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS IN BOTH TIME AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL.
IN FACT…THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE SHOWS THAT THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE ABOUT EQUAL AT EACH SPECIFIC LOCATION ALONG THE COAST FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 20.4N 72.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 20.9N 73.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 22.2N 74.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 23.5N 75.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 25.4N 77.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 30.5N 80.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 38.0N 78.0W 30 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 07/1800Z 47.0N 66.0W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
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September 2nd, 2008 at 7:32 pm
[...] Read the rest of this great post here [...]
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:20 pm
Hurricane Hanna Track – Latest Update
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008
THE LAST COUPLE OF FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT HANNA WAS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.
IT SEEMS THAT HANNA IS MAKING A SMALL COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
I HAVE TO GIVE SOME CREDIT TO THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS WHICH PREDICTED THIS LOOP A FEW DAYS AGO…HOWEVER THEY INDICATED THAT HANNA WOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WHEN IT OCCURRED.
SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED HANNA THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE…AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HANNA HAS WEAKENED EVEN MORE.
HOWEVER…WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 55 KT SINCE ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM AROUND 0600 UTC.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO SHEAR HANNA.
BUT…THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CUT-OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF HANNA VERY SOON…AND THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT THIS IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR.
AS THE UPPER-LOW CUTS-OFF IT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD WHICH SHOULD TURN THE UPPER-FLOW OVER THE STORM FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST…WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.
AT 96 HOURS…HANNA WAS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL STORM…BECAUSE IT IS PREDICTED TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND THERE COULD STILL BE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER WATER AT THAT TIME.
THE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST THAT HANNA WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON AS THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD…ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO BUILD WESTWARD.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO STEER HANNA ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD…BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL LOCATION…BUT THEREAFTER IT REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
AS A REMINDER…ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AS SMALL DEVIATIONS LEFT OR RIGHT WOULD HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON BOTH THE TIME AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL.
A G-IV MISSION WAS FLOWN THIS EVENING AND THE DATA GATHERED BY THIS AIRCRAFT SHOULD GET ASSIMILATED INTO THE 0000 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0300Z 20.5N 72.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 21.3N 72.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 22.8N 73.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 24.4N 75.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 26.4N 77.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 32.5N 80.5W 75 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 07/0000Z 41.0N 75.5W 35 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 08/0000Z 50.0N 60.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
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September 3rd, 2008 at 8:42 am
Hurricane Hanna Track
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008
FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE HANNA HAS ALMOST COMPLETED A TIGHT CYCLONIC LOOP AND IS NOW POSSIBLY TURNING SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DECREASED TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE…WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE 993 MB BASED ON A DROPSONDE REPORT THAT ALSO MEASURED 25-KT SURFACE WINDS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/02.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST REASONINGS.
HANNA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES…POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA.
IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTAINED UPPER-AIR DATA FROM DROPSONDES RELEASED AROUND HANNAFROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT…WHICH USUALLY PRODUCES BETTER TRACK FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL…WITH HANNA EXPECTED TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS BY 36 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS.
HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0900Z 20.2N 72.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 21.5N 72.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 23.2N 74.1W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 24.8N 76.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 27.2N 78.1W 75 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 33.7N 80.0W 70 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 07/0600Z 42.5N 71.5W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
120HR VT 08/0600Z 51.0N 55.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
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September 3rd, 2008 at 10:06 pm
Hurricane Hanna Track
Hurricane Hanna, or Hurricane Hannah as some like to spell it, is headed for the coast of North Carolina, but only as a Category 1 hurricane.
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008
HANNA HAS BEEN A TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE. SINCE ITS FORMATION IT HAS FOUGHT TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS…STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR AND THE EFFECTS OF LAND. FURTHERMORE…AT TIMES HANNA HAS RESEMBLED A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.
SURFACE AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS TONIGHT CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT HANNA HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR IS DECREASING AND HANNA IS DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THESE CHANGES IN THE UPPER FLOW OVER HANNA HAVE BEEN ACCURATELY FORECAST BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 55 KNOTS…AND IS BASED ON A 68 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASURED AS THE PLANE DEPARTED THE CYCLONE.
WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT…SOME INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HANNA IS FORECAST TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS IN A DAY OR TWO BUT IT COULD OCCUR EARLIER.
NONE OF THE GUIDANCE INTENSIFIES HANNA BEYOND 70 KNOTS.
THE CENTER HAS BEEN ROTATING AROUND A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE AND FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DATA FROM A NOAA BUOY SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/11.
SOME OF THIS MOTION COULD HAVE RESULTED FROM REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.
SINCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF HANNA…A NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH.
THE TRACK MODELS ARE NOT TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS NOT VERY HIGH.
HOWEVER…THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS HANNA MOVING OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
BECAUSE HANNA IS A LARGE CYCLONE…A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST EARLY THURSDAY.
A NOAA JET HAS SAMPLED THE ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT AND THE DATA IS BEING USED TO INITIALIZE THE 00Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0300Z 23.2N 72.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 24.7N 73.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 26.9N 75.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 29.3N 77.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 32.0N 79.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 39.5N 74.0W 50 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 08/0000Z 46.5N 63.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/0000Z 49.0N 47.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
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September 4th, 2008 at 9:02 am
Hurricane Hannah Projected Path
Latest update on projected path of Hurricane Hannah track from the National Hurricane Center shows that Hanna is a very large hurricane some 600 miles across, but a very weak one. Read the latest computer tracking models discussion and forecasted track update below.
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TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
LOOKS CAN CERTAINLY BE DECEIVING. HANNA HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING VERY MUCH DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AN EARLIER STRONG BURST DIED AFTER ABOUT 04Z…AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST CONTINUES TO IMPOSE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR.
NEVERTHELESS…HANNA HAS A LARGE AND ROBUST CIRCULATION…AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 990 MB.
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB HAVE BEEN AS STRONG AS 65 KT…AND NUMEROUS SFMR VALUES OF 55-60 KT HAVE BEEN RETRIEVED.
I HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO DISCOUNT THE SFMR WINDS…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.
GIVEN THAT THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO PERSIST OVER HANNA EVEN AS IT GAINS LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…STRENGTHENING WOULD AT FIRST GLANCE SEEM UNLIKELY.
CONSISTENT WITH THAT THINKING…THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR EVEN SOME WEAKENING…EXCEPT MUCH LATER WHEN HANNA BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
ON THE OTHER HAND…THE SHIPS AND LGEM…DESPITE DIAGNOSING LITTLE CHANGE IN SHEAR…FORECAST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS.
A CONSENSUS OF THESE VARIOUS MODELS WOULD YIELD A FLAT 60 KT INTENSITY FORECAST UNTIL HANNA PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE CAROLINAS…BUT FOR CONTINUITY AND SINCE HANNA IS ALREADY PRODUCING WINDS JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH….65 KT IS STILL SHOWN EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST AS HANNA ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
DESPITE HAVING AIRCRAFT FIXES…THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAGE…PROBABLY DUE TO THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION…BUT THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/10.
HANNA SHOULD ROUND THE BUILDING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND ROUGHLY HUG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES…BUT PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG THE WAY.
PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO THE BENEFIT OF DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET MISSION LAST NIGHT…THE LATEST MODEL TRACKS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE TIGHTER AGREEMENT…AND IN GENERAL THEY HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE…TO BE CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS.
AS ALWAYS…ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST OF THE CENTER…ESPECIALLY SINCE MUCH OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA IS WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0900Z 24.0N 72.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 25.3N 74.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 27.5N 76.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 30.3N 78.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 33.5N 78.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 41.0N 72.5W 50 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 08/0600Z 48.5N 59.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/0600Z 51.5N 41.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
——————————————————–
Hurricane Hanna 8:00 a.m. – Latest Update
AT 800 AM AST…1200Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES…455 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 760 MILES…1220 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.
HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF HANNA WILL PASS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY…AND WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER…RAINS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA WILL REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES…465 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB…29.20 INCHES.
September 4th, 2008 at 11:51 am
Hurricane Hannah Track – Latest Path Update
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TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31…CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
…CORRECT STATUS AT 48 AND 72 HR…
VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS CHOKING OFF CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE OF HANNA…AND THE CYCLONE HAS A VERY SUBTROPICAL APPEARANCE.
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS HAVE COME DOWN AS WELL.
BASED ON SOME 52 KT SFMR WINDS AROUND 11Z…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING RIGHT NOW…WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND POOR THERMODYNAMICS.
THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT DRY AIR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE UP TO LANDFALL.
HOWEVER…AS HANNA AND THE UPPER LOW BEGIN TO SEPARATE SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS…INCLUDING THE GFS…SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL LESSEN SOMEWHAT.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION…AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW HANNA ATTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF…ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE IS LOWER.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/10.
THE FORECAST SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A DEEP LAYER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.
HANNA IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK IS REQUIRED.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BECAUSE THE BETTER PERFORMING MODELS THIS YEAR…NAMELY THE GFS AND GFDL…ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
BECAUSE OF THE LARGE…SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION…THE EXACT TRAJECTORY OF THE CENTER IS RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT.
HURRICANE HANNAH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/1500Z 24.5N 73.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 26.2N 75.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 28.7N 77.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 31.7N 78.2W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 35.4N 77.4W 55 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 07/1200Z 43.0N 69.5W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 08/1200Z 50.0N 54.0W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/1200Z 51.5N 37.5W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
September 4th, 2008 at 8:08 pm
Hurricane Hannah Track – Latest Tracking Projected Path
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING HANNA IS FINDING THE CIRCULATION CENTER AT 850 MB DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MEAN CENTER OF ROTATION APPARENT IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES.
THERE ARE ALSO MULTIPLE SWIRLS…BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS JUMPED A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY.
ALTHOUGH A COUPLE MORE SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE…THE ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME…THAT IS…MORE ALONG THE TRACK…AND THEN HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON THE TRACK.
THE BASIC FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT LEFTWARD SHIFT…AND IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
RECONNAISSANCE DATA THUS FAR DO NOT SUPPORT ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AIR IMPINGING ON HANNA FROM THE SOUTHEAST…AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH A LITTLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL…NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODELS NOW MAKE HANNA A HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW TOPS OUT AT 60 KT.
HURRICANE WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT HANNA BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST…AND PEOPLE ARE REMINDED THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A MINIMAL HURRICANE.
HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 25.5N 75.0W 55 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 27.2N 76.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 30.3N 78.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 33.9N 78.3W 60 KT…ON THE COAST
48HR VT 06/1800Z 37.5N 76.5W 50 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 07/1800Z 46.0N 65.5W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 08/1800Z 51.0N 50.0W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/1800Z 52.5N 32.5W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
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September 5th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Hurricane Hannah Path – Latest Projected Path
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE REPORTED TWO AREAS OF WIND OF ABOUT 65 KT.
HOWEVER…DROPSONDE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE SFMR ESTIMATES WERE A LITTLE TOO HIGH.
THE MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 75 KT ABOUT 75 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE LAST REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 984 MB…UP A LITTLE FROM THIS MORNING.
BASED ON ALL THIS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE METEOROLOGICALLY BETWEEN A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM AND A 65-KT HURRICANE.
THE MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT WOBBLY 360/17…WITH A RE-ANALYSIS OF AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTING THIS MOTION BEGAN JUST AFTER THE 11Z AIRCRAFT FIX.
HANNA IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERLIES IN 24-36 HR.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION.
ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO…AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AMONGST THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE STILL ISSUES FOR HANNA…AND SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.
HOWEVER…THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A CONVECTIVE BURST COULD CAUSE THE STORM TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HR.
THE GFS AND UKMET CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DEEPENING AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 96 AND 120 HR FORECASTS.
HURRICANE HANNAH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 30.8N 78.7W 60 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 33.2N 78.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 36.7N 76.8W 50 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 07/0600Z 40.7N 72.4W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 07/1800Z 44.5N 65.6W 40 KT…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 08/1800Z 50.0N 47.5W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 09/1800Z 51.0N 30.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 10/1800Z 52.5N 14.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
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