Tropical Storm Kyle – Latest update and projected path for Tropical Storm Kyle, which is projected to be Hurricane Kyle when it reaches the Northeastern US.
National Hurricane Center path map for TS Kyle.
Spaghetti models showing various computer models of Kyle’s projected path.
Composite tracking model for Tropical Storm Kyle along US shoreline.
The National Hurricane Center predicts Kyle will reach Hurricane strength by Saturday afternoon as the tropical storm passes by Bermuda.
And that’s the latest National Hurricane Center update on Tropical Storm Kyle.
Tags: hurricane kyle, kyle projected path, national hurricane center, tropical storm kyle, ts kyle
September 25th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
Tropical Storm Kyle Projected Path
Latest forecast discussion from NHC on Tropical Storm Kyle calls for Kyle to become a Category 1 hurricane by Saturday.
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PLAGUED PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BETTER-DEFINED LOW CLOUD CIRCULATION THAN EARLIER TODAY.
ALTHOUGH THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED…THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED 1000 FT WINDS AS HIGH AS 51 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.
THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS BEING CLASSIFIED AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR THIS FIRST ADVISORY.
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE STRENGTHENING OF KYLE BUT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…MORE OR LESS AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.
INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH OR 010/7.
HOWEVER THE EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS PROBABLY DUE TO SOME REFORMATION OF THE CENTER TOWARD THE DEEP CONVECTION.
A MAINLY NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS…BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A DEVELOPING HIGH TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.
THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS REFLECTED IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN CANADA.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK ENSEMBLE AND A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2100Z 23.5N 68.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 25.2N 68.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 27.7N 68.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 31.0N 69.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 34.5N 69.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 43.0N 67.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 50.0N 60.0W 55 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 30/1800Z 53.0N 53.0W 55 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
September 25th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
[...] admin wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptTropical Storm Kyle – Latest update and projected path for Tropical Storm Kyle, which is projected to be Hurricane Kyle when it reaches the Northeastern US. National Hurricane Center path map for TS Kyle. Spaghetti models showing various computer models of Kyle’s projected path. Composite tracking model for Tropical Storm Kyle along US shoreline. The National Hurricane Center predicts Kyle will [...] [...]
September 25th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WHICH WAS INVESTIGATING KYLE EARLIER THIS EVENING MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 994 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT.
THERE WERE ALSO A FEW SFMR RETRIEVALS NEAR 55 KT…BUT THE FLIGHT METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD ESTIMATED THAT THESE MEASUREMENTS WERE LIKELY ABOUT 10 KT TOO HIGH. IN ADDITION…A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION USING THE SHEAR PATTERN WOULD YIELD A DATA-T NUMBER OF 3.0.
ALL OF THIS INFORMATION UNANIMOUSLY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.
THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIX INDICATES THAT KYLE HAS ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING AT 010/11.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH JUST EAST OF BERMUDA AND THE LARGE CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
MODEL AGREEMENT IS EXCEPTIONAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KYLE IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO…DURING WHICH ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH AFTER THAT AND KYLE WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER WARM WATERS AT A FAIRLY SPEEDY CLIP.
THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS CLOSE TO THAT SHOWN BY THE LGEM…HWRF…FSU SUPERENSEMBLE…AND CONTINUITY.
HOWEVER…THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS MAKE KYLE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER.
KYLE WILL THEN CROSS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AFTER 48 HOURS AND SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BEGIN ONCE KYLE MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 72 HOURS WITH THE PROCESS COMPLETED BY 96 HOURS.
BY DAY 5…THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK.
IN ADDITION…PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.
TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0300Z 24.8N 68.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 26.5N 68.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 29.2N 68.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 32.4N 68.9W 65 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 36.3N 68.3W 70 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 44.5N 65.5W 60 KT…INLAND…NOVA SCOTIA
96HR VT 30/0000Z 50.0N 60.0W 50 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 01/0000Z…ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE
September 26th, 2008 at 9:25 am
Tropical Storm Kyle Becoming Hurricane Kyle Saturday
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT FOUND 850 MB SLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 63 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT…WHICH IS ROUGHLY EQUAL TO A 47-KT SURFACE WIND.
HOWEVER…SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 50 AND 53 KT WERE MEASURED BENEATH THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS…SO A BLEND OF THESE VALUES YIELDS AN AVERAGE SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 50 KT.
THIS WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE 997 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE THAT WAS MEASURED BY A DROPSONDE.
RECENT AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THE MOTION IS NOW 350/10 KT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF KYLE…THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
AFTER THAT…A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH WITH EVENTUAL RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
HOWEVER…THE FORECAST TRACK IS NOT AS STRAIGHTFORWARD AS THAT.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS…THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE POINT OF RECURVATURE WILL OCCUR.
00Z UPPER-AIR HEIGHT DATA FROM BERMUDA WAS IN ERROR TO DUE A BAD BASELINE…BUT THE 00Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE FILTERED OUT THIS ERRONEOUS MASS FIELD DATA.
HOWEVER…THE WIND DATA WAS GOOD…AND THE BACKING WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INDICATES THAT RIDGING COMING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING.
ALSO…ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A MUCH LARGER LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE AZORES.
SINCE OMEGA BLOCKS ARE GENERALLY STABLE PATTERNS…THE MODELS MAY BE BREAKING DOWN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TOO QUICKLY…WHICH WOULD RESULT IN PREMATURE RECURVATURE BY THE MODELS.
AS A RESULT…THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK…AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO THE U.S. CAPE COD AREA SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS…GFDL…HWRF…NOGAPS…AND CANADIAN MODEL RUNS.
ONLY THE UKMET AND ECMWF KEEP KYLE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
SHEARED DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
ONCE KYLE TURNS MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST…THE VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND MORE ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP LAYER FLOW.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER UNTIL KYLE REACHES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH MUCH COOLER WATER LIES NORTH OF GULFSTREAM…THE FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST…AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS…BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE HWRF MODEL.
INTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.
TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0900Z 25.6N 68.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 27.5N 68.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 30.5N 69.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 34.0N 69.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 38.5N 69.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 29/0600Z 45.7N 66.3W 60 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 30/0600Z 51.0N 61.0W 50 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
120HR VT 01/0600Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
September 26th, 2008 at 10:30 am
Hurricane Kyle – Latest Update
Kyle could still be Category 1 hurricane when it reaches New England and Nova Scotia.
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008
KYLE IS SHOWING A CLASSIC SHEAR PATTERN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING…WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION BY 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT…WHILE RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATES BELIEVABLE WINDS OF 45 KT.
BASED ON THIS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT WOBBLY 340/11…SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
OTHER THAN THAT…THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
KYLE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC…AND SOON SHOULD PASS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR.
AFTER THAT…KYLE MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND THE NORTHERN END OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE.
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAST THE NORTHERN END OF THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN AND HOW SOON KYLE MAY ACQUIRE AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION…AS SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE AND A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL.
HOWEVER…THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE…WITH THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO…BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. THE CURRENT SHEAR MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…WHICH WOULD ALLOW KYLE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY.
AFTER THAT…KYLE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG…BUT DIVERGENT…UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW….WITH THE RESULTING SHEAR TRYING TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND THE DIVERGENCE TRYING TO STRENGTHEN IT.
WHICH OF THESE INFLUENCES WILL BE THE STRONGEST IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR KYLE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE FIRST 48 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE…BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HR.
AFTER 48 HR…KYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM INTO VERY COLD WATER.
WHILE THIS AND THE EXPECTED ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE KYLE TO WEAKEN…IT MAY STILL BE OF HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN THE CENTER REACHES NEW ENGLAND OR THE MARITIMES.
AFTER LANDFALL…KYLE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL…EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
INTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.
HURRICANE KYLE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/1500Z 26.4N 68.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 28.6N 69.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 31.7N 69.9W 60 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 35.5N 69.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 39.5N 68.7W 70 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 46.5N 66.0W 50 KT…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 30/1200Z 52.0N 62.0W 40 KT…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 01/1200Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
September 26th, 2008 at 10:10 pm
Hurricane Kyle Projected Path – Latest Update
Kyle aims directly at Nova Scotia.
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION.
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE BETWEEN 992 AND 995 MB AND A SPOT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 79 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THERE IS STILL NO EVIDENCE OF STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ALSO INCREASED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON THIS DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS.
ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN THE SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING KYLE WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A HURRICANE.
KYLE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AS KYLE CROSSES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AND HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED TO 14 KNOTS.
KYLE IS LOCATED IN BETWEEN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE EAST AND A STRONG DEEP LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS STEERING PATTERN FAVORS A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK WITH A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER…KYLE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE…VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
IN FACT…DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS KYLE WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND…INTERESTS IN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD DEFINITELY BE MORE ON GUARD.
HURRICANE KYLE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0300Z 29.4N 68.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 31.5N 69.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 34.8N 69.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 38.5N 68.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 42.5N 66.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 49.0N 63.5W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 01/0000Z…ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE
September 27th, 2008 at 9:04 am
Tropical Storm Kyle Reaches Hurricane Strength
Kyle is a huge storm that has tropical storm force winds 400 miles wide and is accelerating NNW this morning. A slight change in trajectory westward today could threaten Cape Cod tomorrow.
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008
AIR FORCE RECON REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH AND STRUCTURE OF KYLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THERE WERE TWO REPORTS OF 70 KT AT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT…WHICH WOULD TYPICALLY CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 55 KT SURFACE WINDS.
SFMR WINDS IN THAT SAME AREA ALSO ONLY SUPPORT ABOUT 55 KT.
HOWEVER…THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OCCURRED ABOUT 30 NMI NORTHWEST OF THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION…SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY HAVE BEEN MISSED ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLIGHT LEG.
THE HIGHER LATITUDE AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE EAST ALSO SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT THE STANDARD PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP FOR A 996 MB PRESSURE WOULD SUPPORT.
KYLE HAS MADE A SHORT TERM JOG TO THE NORTHWEST…OR 330 DEGREES AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER…A 9-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION YIELDS 345/14…AND THAT IS WHAT WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
KYLE REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEP-LAYER BUT WEAKENING LOW TO THE WEST OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
THE COMBINED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE KYLE NORTHWARD TODAY AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED…THE VARIOUS SURFACE TRACKS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DUE TO THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BEING STRONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER…SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON THE EXACT TIME AND LOCATION OF RECURVATURE OF KYLE TO THE NORTHEAST. IF THE EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS DELAYED BY JUST 6 HOURS …THEN KYLE WOULD PASS CLOSER TO CAPE COD THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF KYLE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN CONTRAST TO WHAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING…THEN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED WESTWARD AND CLOSER TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS A RESULT…WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED…EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED. ONE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF KYLE LATE YESTERDAY ALLOWED THE CYCLONE TO BRIEFLY INTENSIFY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 30N LATITUDE IS LIFTING NORTHWARD AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF KYLE AND RELIEVES PRESSURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE…AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE SHOULD RESUME AND KYLE IS EXPECTED BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST…AND IS A BLEND OF THE ICON…SHIPS…AND THE GFDL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0900Z 30.5N 69.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 33.0N 69.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 36.8N 69.4W 70 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 41.0N 68.4W 70 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 44.9N 66.7W 60 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 30/0600Z 50.5N 64.0W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 01/0600Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/HR.
A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES…335 KM MAINLY NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER. WIND GUSTS OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BERMUDA.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB…29.41 INCHES.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY WELL IN ADVANCE OF KYLE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH KYLE COULD PRODUCE TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES …WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE…ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY.
September 27th, 2008 at 10:52 am
Tropical Storm Kyle – Hurricane Kyle Latest Update
Kyle could shift westward and make landfall as a hurricane in Maine:
AT 11 AM EDT…1500 UTC…A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM STONINGTON TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA… GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11 AM EDT…1500 UTC…A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE SOUTH OF STONINGTON TO CAPE ELIZABETH…INCLUDING THE PORTLAND AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
—
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF KYLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS…WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT KYLE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY ABOUT 20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 60 KT…WHICH IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ABOUT TO REACH THE CENTER OF KYLE TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE INTENSITY.
KYLE CONTINUES IT ZIG-ZAG PATH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC…WITH THE NORTHWEST JOG SEEN EARLIER NOW BEING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NORTHWARD JOG.
THE SMOOTHED 12-HR MOTION USED IN THE ADVISORY IS 345/13.
KYLE REMAINS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR 12-24 HR OR SO…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS KYLE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES.
THE TIMING OF THIS TURN WILL DETERMINE IF THE CENTER OF KYLE MAKES LANDFALL IN MAINE…OR WHETHER IT MAKES LANDFALL IN NEW BRUNSWICK OR NOVA SCOTIA.
WHILE THE OVERALL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY…THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE LEFT FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOW CALL FOR A LANDFALL IN MAINE.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS TRACK…CALLING FOR THE CENTER OF KYLE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK IN ABOUT 48 HR.
THE TRACK LIES JUST LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE…BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFDL AND HWRF.
KYLE IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN STRONG…AND DIVERGENT…UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS SUGGESTS CONTINUED SHEAR…WHICH WOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING…WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WOULD ENCOURAGE STRENGTHENING.
THE GFDL…HWRF…AND SHIPS MODELS ALL FORECAST KYLE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COLD WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM IN 24-36 HR…AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.
AFTER KYLE REACHES THE COLDER WATER…IT SHOULD WEAKEN AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITIONS.
KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER EASTERN CANADA BY 72 HR AND BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 96 HR.
THE FORECAST TRACK…INTENSITY…AND WIND RADII REQUIRE WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINE AT THIS TIME.
HURRICANE KYLE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/1500Z 32.1N 69.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 34.7N 69.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 38.8N 68.9W 70 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 43.0N 67.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 46.7N 66.0W 45 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 30/1200Z 51.0N 64.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 01/1200Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
AT 1100 AM AST…1500Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 69.6 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES…450 KM…WEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 635 MILES…1025 KM…SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY…AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES…335 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE CENTER OF KYLE IS PASSING NEAR NOAA BUOY 41048…WHICH RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 56 MPH…91 KM/HR…AND A WIND GUST OF 65 MPH…104 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES. BUOY 41048 JUST REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1000 MB…29.52 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES…NEW BRUNSWICK…AND NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
September 27th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
TROPICAL STORM KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
200 PM AST SAT SEP 27 2008
…KYLE ACCELERATING NORTHWARD…LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH…
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM STONINGTON TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA… GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE SOUTH OF STONINGTON TO CAPE ELIZABETH…INCLUDING THE PORTLAND AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OF KYLE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM AST…1800Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES…480 KM…WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 550 MILES…885 KM…SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.
KYLE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH…32 KM/HR.
A NORTHWARD MOTION WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY…AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES…335 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA THROUGH TODAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES…NEW BRUNSWICK…PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND…AND NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION…33.3 N…69.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTH NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.
September 27th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
Hurricane Kyle Latest Update
Kyle now officially a hurricane and still aiming for Maine – Nova Scotia border.
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT…ALONG WITH ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 65-75 KT FROM THE SFMR.
WHILE SOME OF THE HIGHER SFMR VALUES LOOK SUSPECT…THE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COVERED A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO JUSTIFY UPGRADING KYLE TO A 65-KT HURRICANE.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE TODAY…WITH THE CENTER REMAINING NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE RANGING FROM 995-999 MB.
THUS…IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE INCREASED WINDS ARE MORE RELATED TO THE INCREASE IN THE FORWARD MOTION THAN ANY INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION.
KYLE HAS ACCELERATED NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS…WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 355/20. KYLE REMAINS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR 12 HR OR SO…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS KYLE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES.
WHILE THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO…THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE GFS…GFDL…HWRF…AND ECMWF HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND CALL FOR THE CENTER OF KYLE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN EITHER NEW BRUNSWICK OR NOVA SCOTIA.
SEEING THAT THE GUIDANCE SHOWED A RIGHT SHIFT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEFT SHIFT LAST NIGHT…THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN CLOSE THE THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CALL FOR LANDFALL NEAR THE MAINE-NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER IN ABOUT 36 HR.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AFTER 48 HR AS KYLE INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM…SO THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION AT THAT TIME.
KYLE IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG…AND DIVERGENT…UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS SUGGESTS CONTINUED SHEAR…WHICH WOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING…WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WOULD ENCOURAGE STRENGTHENING.
THE GFDL…HWRF…AND SHIPS MODELS FORECAST SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE KYLE REACHES COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 18-24 HR.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT…CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KT IN ABOUT 12 HR AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER UNTIL LANDFALL.
AFTER LANDFALL…KYLE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL…WITH THE CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 72-96 HR.
THE FORECAST TRACK…INTENSITY…AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINE AT THIS TIME.
HURRICANE KYLE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/2100Z 34.3N 69.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 37.2N 69.5W 70 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 41.3N 68.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 45.3N 66.6W 60 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 29/1800Z 48.3N 65.3W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT 30/1800Z 51.5N 64.0W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 01/1800Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
September 28th, 2008 at 9:14 am
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008
KYLE EMERGED FROM THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD LOOKING RATHER UGLY FROM A CONVECTION PERSPECTIVE.
HOWEVER…THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH SUPPORTIVE RECON WIND DATA TO KEEP THE CYCLONE DESIGNATED AS A HURRICANE.
THE HIGHEST 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEED MEASURED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WAS 80 KT AND THE MAXIMUM SFMR SURFACE WIND SPEED OBSERVED WAS 61 KT.
HOWEVER…THESE TWO WIND SPEED VALUES WERE NOT ANYWHERE CLOSE TO HAVING BEEN OBSERVED IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION.
DROPSONDE WIND PROFILES ALSO INDICATE THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE NORTHEASTWARD TILT BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTERS.
THE TWO CENTER DROPS REVEALED LIGHT WINDS AT FLIGHT-LEVEL WITH UP TO 52 KT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH A PRESSURE VALUE OF 1001 MB. USING A 1 MB PER 10 KT REDUCTION FACTOR YIELDS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF APPROXIMATELY 996 MB.
ALTHOUGH THE 80-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF 73 KT…THE SEVERELY TILTED STRUCTURE AND DEGRADED CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS INSTEAD COMPELLED ME TO USE A BLEND OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND PEAK SFMR WIND SPEEDS TO ESTIMATE THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED TO BE 65 KT.
HOWEVER…THIS VALUE COULD BE ADJUSTED IN THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/21 KT. RECON FIX DATA SHOWS THAT KYLE REMAINS ON TRACK.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES KYLE HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IS BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD BY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A LARGE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE GULF OR MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY AS KYLE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE.
THEREFORE…THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
POST-ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS BECOMING CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
KYLE IS ALSO ABOUT 6-9 HOURS AWAY FROM REACHING MUCH COOLER WATERS THAT NORTH OF THE GULFSTREAM THAT IS POSITIONED ALONG 40N LATITUDE.
THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE…AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS COULD DECOUPLE BEFORE KYLE REACHES ANY LAND AREAS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE DOWNWARD TREND PREDICTED BY THE SHIPS…GFDL…HWRF INTENSITY MODELS.
HURRICANE KYLE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0900Z 38.4N 69.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 41.5N 68.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 45.2N 66.5W 55 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 29/1800Z 48.0N 64.9W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
48HR VT 30/0600Z 49.5N 64.1W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT 01/0600Z 50.8N 63.3W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 02/0600Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
September 28th, 2008 at 9:26 am
Hurricane Kyle Nears New England
Kyle is still aiming for the Maine – Nova Scotia border with hurricane force winds, drenching rains, and a strong tidal surge.
Satellite photo of Hurricane Kyle off the Massachussetts coast:
HURRICANE KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
800 AM AST SUN SEP 28 2008
…KYLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE BUT IS APPROACHING COLDER WATERS…
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE FROM PORT CLYDE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE SOUTH OF PORT CLYDE TO CAPE ELIZABETH…INCLUDING THE PORTLAND AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NOVA SCOTIA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM AST…1200Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES…265 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 440 MILES…710 KM…SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH…39 KM/HR…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF CAPE COD MASSACHUSETTS AND THE COAST OF MAINE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH…130 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
KYLE IS APPROACHING COLDER WATERS AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY.
THE SYSTEM COULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES…335 KM…MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 MB…29.26 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL…WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN THE BAY OF FUNDY…AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES….ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES…NEW BRUNSWICK…NOVA SCOTIA…AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION…39.3 N…68.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…991 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.
September 28th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Hurricane Kyle Latest Update
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT KYLE IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO A LESS TROPICAL-LOOKING SYSTEM.
THE CLOUD BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE CENTER LOOKS SOMEWHAT FRONTAL…SO KYLE IS PROBABLY STARTING TO MAKE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
EVEN THOUGH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA…IN PARTICULAR DROPSONDE MEASUREMENTS WHICH SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS COULD HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 75 KT JUST BEFORE 12Z.
DATA BUOYS 44011 AND 44024 ARE VERY NEAR THE PROJECTED PATH OF KYLE…AND THESE PLATFORMS SHOULD BE USEFUL IN ASSESSING THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE LATER TODAY.
NONETHELESS…THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB 15 DEG C WATERS LATER TODAY WHICH WILL LARGELY ELIMINATE THE OCEANIC ENERGY SOURCE.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL…WITH THE THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS THE CYCLONE BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE IN 48 HOURS OR SO.
IN FACT THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS…WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
LATEST FIXES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD…020/21…IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA AND THE STEERING WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND AND IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
THIS IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST GFDL RUN.
IF THE CURRENT TREND IN THE TRACK OF KYLE CONTINUES…THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR MAINE COULD BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE KYLE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/1500Z 40.4N 67.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 43.3N 66.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 46.3N 64.6W 50 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 30/0000Z 48.5N 63.5W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 30/1200Z 50.0N 63.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 01/1200Z 51.5N 63.0W 25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 02/1200Z…DISSIPATED